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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
The author is a former MI6 chief and UK ambassador to the United Nations.
We often think middle east As built in the Arab world. Baghdad and Damascus were historical centers of power. They became the cultural capital of the region until Cairo and Beirut declined in the 20th century and their influence was offset by the oil and gas resources of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.
It is surprising that the three most powerful and powerful countries today – Israel, Turkey and Iran – are non-Arab countries. Each is led by an old war horse. Benjamin Netanyahu has served as Israel’s prime minister for 17 of the past 28 years. Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been in power in Turkey for 22 years, while Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been the supreme leader of Iran for 35 years. Like the French Bourbons of 200 years ago, they learn nothing and forget nothing.
October 7, 2023 Israel strikes back after the humiliating devastation of the brutal Hamas attack. The armed forces and intelligence services have turned not only on Hamas, but also on Hezbollah and their supporters in Iran. In the process, Netanyahu ignored the advice of Israel’s closest friends and showed little respect for protecting civilian life. Long-standing support for Israel has been withdrawn in the West, but its main enemies have been weakened.
Israel proved to be the new Sparta – a small nation with unrivaled military strength. Its politicians, however, do not accept the idea that a political solution with the Palestinians is necessary if the Jewish people are to have lasting peace and security. Israel does not have an indefinite hold on Gaza unless Israel can move the Palestinians there to Egypt and annex as much of the occupied West Bank as possible. One prediction we can confidently make is that, unfortunately, an independent Palestinian state will not be any closer than it is within a year.
As the new year begins, Israel’s attention is focused on Iran, the big loser in 2024. Khamenei is getting weaker, both physically and politically. The main candidate to replace him is now his son Mojtaba. Autocrats of the second generation rise to power on the back of privileges and privileges. They don’t bear the scars of battle or learn the hard lessons their fathers taught them. Hafez al-Assad was a brutal Syrian leader, but he knew the limits of power and when to negotiate. His son Bashar had none of these skills. The result was more brutality and eventually the collapse of the regime.
The experience of losing their Syrian ally should make the Iranian military wary of appointing a dynasty. They try to prevent a new supreme leader from becoming omnipotent in his regime. But the new leaders of the delayed autocracy may bring surprises. Deng Xiaoping and Mikhail Gorbachev are obvious examples. Saudi Arabia, which is close to Iran, has been replaced by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Each of them realized the vulnerability of their country, economic and Political A strategy, often involving limited openness to the outside world, to sustain the autocratic regime for decades to come. This seems unlikely in Iran, but should not be ruled out.
A weakened regime offers an opportunity for new negotiations, even if Khamenei’s seniority is delayed for another year or two. Donald Trump may prefer a political compromise over Netanyahu’s preferred military option to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. Israel argues that Tehran is secretly moving toward nuclear weapons and is cutting off talks. These are valid concerns. Khamenei doesn’t trust America any more than American politicians don’t trust Iran. Iran may need new leadership in Tehran before it changes course.
In the year In 2024, the most welcome sign was the fall of the Assad regime and the opening of a better future for the Syrian people. Turkey, like Israel, was a winner last year, but it has trouble taking advantage of new opportunities. Erdogan appears to view Syria through the skewed Kurdish question, making it difficult for Syrian opposition leaders to come together and draft a new constitution that recognizes their country’s diversity – religious and ethnic.
Erdoğan, who survived spectacularly, built Turkish power in the region and in Africa. He has shown that the philosophy of political Islam can be successful and does not lead to an Islamic state and strict Sharia law. In this sense, an example can be given to the leader of the HTS Islamist group, Ahmed al-Shara, who now holds power in Damascus.
Lessons here for Western capitals and for Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. We are right to be wary of Al-Shara’s extremist background. But the young extremists’ journey from political rebellion to national leadership is well-trodden. The diplomatic task ahead of us is to maximize the chances of success in Syria, by being bold in lifting sanctions, removing the terrorist embargo, and doing everything we can to bring the Syrian opposition together.
The inner feeling in the western capitals seems to be gradually paying the ropes and opposing Islam based on ideology. But this way we will end up with a new dictatorship like in Libya or Tunisia. Western countries must also avoid the mistakes of the Bourbons.
