Trump’s gas plan will not happen, but there will be consequences

The plan expressed by Donald Trump will not happen. This requires the cooperation of the Arab countries that rejected it.

These include Jordan and Egypt – countries that Trump wants to take in the Palestinians of Gaza – and Saudi Arabia, which can be expected to reach the bill.

Western allies of the United States and Israel are also against the idea.

Some – maybe many – Gaza Palestinians may be tempted to come out if they have the opportunity.

But even if you remain a million, 1.2 m Others would still be there.

Probably the US – the new owners of Trump’s Riviera of the Middle East of Trump will have to use force to remove them.

Following America’s catastrophic intervention in Iraq in 2003, this would be deeply unpopular in the United States.

This would be the last end of any prolonged hope that a solution for two countries is possible. This is the desire that a conflict of more than a century can be completed with the creation of an independent Palestine with Israel.

The Netanyahu government is strongly against the idea, and over the years of unsuccessful peace talks, “Two countries for two peoples” have become an empty slogan.

But it has been a central US foreign policy plate since the early 1990s.

Trump’s plan would also violate international law.

America already claims to believe in the international order -based order would dissolve. The territorial ambitions of Russia in Ukraine and China in Taiwan will be turbocharger.

Why worry about everything that if it is not about to happen – at least not the way Trump has announced in Washington, observed by a grinning and clearly pleased Benjamin Netanyahu?

The answer is that Trump’s remarks, however foreign, will have consequences.

He is the president of the United States, the most powerful man in the world – he is no longer a reality TV presenter and political hope, trying to grab titles.

Short -term, the interruption caused by his stunning message can weaken the fragile cessation of fire in the gas. A senior Arab source told me that this could be his “death of death.”

The lack of a plan for the future gas management is already a line of guilt in the agreement.

Now Trump has provided one and even if it doesn’t work, he presses very large buttons in the minds of the Palestinians and Israelis.

He will nourish the plans and dreams of ultra -nationalist Jewish extremists who believe in the whole earth between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River, and perhaps beyond, is given by God Jewish possession.

Their leaders are part of the Netanyahu government and keep it in power – and they are delighted. They want the Gaza war to resume with the longer-term goal of eliminating the Palestinians and replacing them with the Jews.

Finance Minister Namal Smotrich said Trump had given the answer to the Gaza’s future after the attacks on October 7th.

His statement states that “whoever has committed the worst slaughter of our earth will turn out to be losing his land forever. We will now act to bury at last, with God’s help, the dangerous idea of ​​a Palestinian state. ”

The centrist opposition leaders in Israel were less efficient, may be afraid of trouble, but they offered a polite welcome to the plan.

Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups may feel the need to respond to Trump with some show force against Israel.

For the Palestinians, the conflict with Israel is guided by the disposition and memory of what they call al-Nakba, the “crash”. It was the expulsion of Palestinians as Israel won its war for independence in 1948.

More than 700,000 Palestinians either fled or were forced by their homes by the Israeli forces. All, except a handful, were never allowed back and Israel has adopted laws he still used to confiscate their property.

Now the fear will be that it happens again.

Many Palestinians have already believed that Israel was using the war against Hamas to destroy the gas and expel the population.

This is part of their accusation that Israel performs genocide – and now they may believe that Donald Trump adds his weight to Israel’s plans.

Just because Trump says something, it doesn’t make it true or sure.

His statements often look more like opening gambities in negotiating real estate than expressions of the united policy of the United States.

Perhaps Trump spreads some confusion while working on another way. He is said to crave the Nobel Peace Prize.

Middle East steam manufacturers, even when they ultimately fail, have a strong attempt to win it.

As the world has mastered his message in Gaza, he has published on his social platform for his truth his desire for a “verified nuclear peace agreement” with Iran.

The Iranian regime denies that it wanted nuclear weapons, but in Tehran there was an open debate about whether they are so threatened now that they needed final deterrent.

For many years, Netanyahu wanted the United States with Israeli help to destroy Iran’s nuclear sites. Making a deal with Iran has never been part of his plan.

During Trump’s first term, Netanyahu began a long and successful campaign to persuade him to get the United States out of the nuclear deal, the Barack Obama administration signed with Iran.

If Trump wanted to throw the Israeli firm thing to please them while making overtures for the Iranians, he succeeded.

But he also created uncertainty and injects more instability into the world’s largest region.