Shock Maritime Flax Sentence of French Sentence on the Right

“Amazing.” It was the only word spoken under her breath by Marin Le Pen when he burst out of the Paris courtroom this morning.

She left the court early – just before she was heard that she was forbidden to run for a position for five years after she was found guilty of misappropriation of EU funds – she almost certainly excluded her not to be in the French presidential election in 2027.

Without even waiting for the judge to pronounce the full details of the sentence, the head of the national rally knew that her political goose was prepared.

There will be no recovery in anticipation of appeal. The office run for office was real and immediate.

A four -year sentence in prison, from which two will be stopped, will be in place in anticipation of appeal.

But her political plans are dead.

Le Pen’s unbelief can be better justified, perhaps in the context of the moment.

Consensus has almost established itself in the political world of France that this extreme sanction of the court could not, in the end, could not take place.

Not only Le Pen’s followers said it. Her enemies agreed by Jean-Luc Melnia in the final left of Prime Minister Francois Bayro in the center and Justice Minister Gerard Darman to the right.

Everyone said that Marin Le Pen was a very important figure to be removed from the political scene when the judge’s pen struck.

All the justified justification of a legal argument. There was no requirement Judge Bénédicte de Perthuis to order not to run for office immediately. The judge had width. Mrs. De Perthuis will take into account the national context, they thought, and the attack on democracy if the president of the presidents in 2027 would be expelled from the race.

But everyone was wrong. The judge said the law was the law.

The law was actually recently intensified – by the politicians themselves, who are now complaining about their request – to make the punishment for abuse of public funds really very serious. Well, said the judge in so many words, now let politicians suck up their own medicine.

Maybe Marine Le Pen was naive in not predicting this result. It certainly seems that her national rally party was only unprepared for it.

As they meet an emergency session after the sentence, party leaders are in the dilemma.

Do they continue as if Marine Le Pen is still likely to work in 2027?

In theory, there is still a (small) opportunity. It has already begun an appeal. The appeal can be accelerated and held at the end of this year or early 2026. A sentence will follow in the spring.

Hearing an appeal can lead to a more unacceptable period or completely eliminate it – in which case it can still work. But the chances should be considered thin.

Or should they continue with the B-Othest plan, the name of 29-year-old party President Jordan Bardela as actually the man to run in the place of Marin Le Pen?

This may be a more realistic assessment of what is to come. But let’s turn to Bardela would be indecent too quickly. And anyway, not everyone in the party is a fan.

Behind Marine Le Pen anyone could unite. Behind the Bardela, not so much.

In this way, so many other issues, the fall of a political earthquake is unclear.

What, for example, the effect will be on the vote of RN?

In the short term, we can expect a protest and impetus to the party’s support. Why? Because what happened fits so well with the RN story that the populist right is the victim of the “system”.

No one can vote for RN seriously holds him against Marine Le Pen for illegal funding for his party using the EU parliament’s funds. They all know that virtually every French political party resorts to similar methods of bad faith in the past.

In the same way, her “dragonian” punishment is forbidden to go to the Presidency-will be interpreted as a badge of honor: proof that she herself stands before the forces they are.

However, the longer term, the impetus may not be as powerful. The truth is that Marine Le Pen is a huge advantage of RN. This hardened battle, sentimental, loving a cat, a highly speaking, a long -suffering woman behaves in a huge attachment from her supporters who think they know her personally.

Jordan Bardela is also a popular figure, but at his age it’s hard to see her fill her shoes. With Marine Le Pen from the photo, RN loses much of its attractiveness.

It is sure that many possible candidates on the French right wing-like Interior Minister Bruno Deptile will see a huge opportunity for themselves in a bidder.

The other unknown is revenge.

Marine Le Pen remains a member of the National Assembly, where it runs a block of 125 – the largest parliament. So far, she had not used this significant block to try to overthrow the government of the dressed Prime Minister Francois Bayro, who is fighting, although there is no majority.

These days may end.

Why now we have to do someone who will be preferred, they will say in RN HQ. Why not take off the house?