Can Ukraine be about to hold elections?

Because Ukrainian cities are bombarded almost at night by Russia, the idea of ​​election here may seem fantastic.

But on the streets and offices of the capital Kiev, the country’s prospect of going to the ballot box is discussed again.

Rumors of election come and go through the three years of the full -scale war in Russia.

Every time they have been rejected by the government, the opposition and the public, arguing the unity of efforts against the Russian invader must come first.

The presidential election, which must be suspended in accordance with the martial law, which was introduced in Ukraine after Russia’s full-scale invasion two years earlier.

But this has not stopped the Kremlin from claiming that President Volodimir Zelenski is an illegitimate leader and wants new elections as a condition for a transaction to end the fire – a conversation point that is repeated by President Trump.

Now there is a new noise of speculation that Zelenski may just think again as negotiations continue to end the fire, and some sources that speak to the BBC suggest that there are reasons to think that the elections can continue later this year.

President Valery’s potentially close rival, a former commander -in -chief of the army of Ukraine, felt the need to deny the rumors of his intentions.

“My answer to this has not changed,” he told RBC-Ukraine news agency. “While the war continues, we all have to work to save the country, not think about elections. I do not comment on any rumors.”

The fact that the shy publicity of Zaluzhnyi, currently the ambassador of Ukraine to London, believes that the need for a statement is striking in itself.

The head of the Central Election Commission of Ukraine, Oleh Didenko, also chose to speak publicly about speculation.

He told the Ukrainska Pravda News website that the law will have to be changed before elections can be held. He said these rules say that parliamentary elections should be held 60 days after the annulment of military status and 90 days for the presidential election.

But it will take more time because of the war and this will require legal changes.

The economic newspaper claims that Zelenski had a meeting last week to discuss elections and instructed employees to prepare for voting after the United States forced Russia to accept the cessation of fire, potentially on Easter.

This report was denied by several state sources.

“There is false information there,” a presidential source told BBC News Ukrainian. “There was no such meeting and there was no such instruction.”

The government’s source said the main focus was to achieve peace and had little hope for the war that ended from Easter.

So in front of so many public refusals, why do some still think that elections may be in the offensive?

First, some sources note that Zelenski’s support in the ballot box has gathered since it has been surrounded by Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance in the White House.

A poll of the International Institute of Sociology of Kiev (KIIS) in March suggest that the number of Ukrainians trusting in Zelenski was several points in the previous month at 69%.

Diplomats say the president may think that he is now his best chance to win a second term and not wait until political divisions appear after the war.

Second, winning a second term, Zelenski will call a bluff of Russia and will strengthen his hand in all long -term peace talks. Just last week, President Vladimir Putin said the United Nations should take up Ukraine and organize “democratic presidential election”. His assumption – maybe wrong – is that Zelenski will be replaced.

Third, the martial law must be renewed by parliamentary vote in early May. Zelenski could use this schedule to announce that the military law would be allowed to expire with elections held later in the summer.

Fourth, Americans are convinced that elections are coming. Steve Vikof, President Trump’s special envoy, told Tucker Carlson’s podcast on March 21: “They have agreed with him. There will be elections in Ukraine.”

Zelenski could use this pressure from the United States – echoing Russian stories – as a pretext, telling the voters that there was no choice but to hold elections.

In the fifth place, some Ukrainian sources believe that logistical obstacles to elections can be overcome.

Millions of citizens have been displaced abroad, on the front line and in occupied territories. The answer to this, according to some, is to allow people to vote using a smart phone app called DIIA. This contains the main documents of people such as a passport, an identity card and a driver license.

Using DIIA, some claim would allow people to vote quickly, cheaply and safely, without having to travel to a selective cabin abroad or in the trenches. They point out that Ukrainians used it successfully to vote in the Eurovision Song Contest. They also note that President Zelenski gave every Ukrainian almost £ 20 as a winter allowance last December, with many registered for him using Diia.

But there are many arguments against the election.

The use of DIIA will require new legislation that can fight to pass through parliament. Diia can be vulnerable to cyber-attack and technical failure. Western governments may not consider it reliable; Russia certainly would not.

Even if DIIA is used, identifying who can vote will still take time with incomplete and outdated registers.

Raising martial law during a temporary termination of fire can create unexpected consequences – including the flight of hundreds of thousands of soldiers from the front line – just as Russia has prepared a counterattack. Russia could hit queues of electoral sections voters.

Any election, however quickly held, would allow the replacement of unity in wartime from political lines. The election would allow Russia to deploy digital and other propaganda to try to shape the result.

Conducting elections can also be seen as accepting Russian arguments that Voladimir Zelenski’s leadership is illegitimate because of the ending elections last year.

Perhaps the strongest argument against the election is that the Ukrainians themselves do not want them. On the same March, a poll by CIIS found that about 78% of people opposed the election even after a complete settlement of the war.