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Topshot – a monk passes a collapsed building in Mandalay on April 1, 2025, a few days after the deadly earthquake in Myanmar.
Sai Aung Mainsai Aung Main | AFP | Ghetto images
Myanmar’s ruling military junta is after a deadly earthquake as an opportunity to restore control against the backdrop of a grueling civil war. But the lasting cessation of fire remains unlikely, analysts say.
The massive earthquake of magnitude 7.7 two weeks ago, one of the strongest to hit Myanmar for a century, shook a nation that was already devastated by a brutal civil war that dispels millions and skimmed its economy.
The official number of deaths increased to 3 471 from Sundaywith thousands of wounded or disappeared. The predictable modeling of the American geological survey evaluated that it was ultimately 10,000 and economic losses to exceed the annual GDP of the war -torn were $ 66.8 billion in 2023According to the World Bank.
Just hours after the earthquake, the ruling junta declared a state of emergency in the most affected cities and issued an application for international assistance, which represents a clear contrast with the consequences of the consequences of the consequences of the consequences Cyclone hikers who hit the Asian nation in 2008S Then the junta initially rejected international assistance, eventually led to death of over 84,000, missing tens of thousands.
This change in his response, described by some as “uncharacteristic”, provoked a cautious hope for political settlement between the junta and the forces of resistance, since the worse natural disasters in the region led to peace talks. In 2004, the Indian Ocean Tsunami prompted a deal for a truce Between the Indonesian government and the local rebels to facilitate efforts to help.
However, analysts see a little chance for such a peaceful deal that appeared in the disaster -affected Myanmar.
“The battle lines are cut too deep and there are almost no common grounds that the junta and the opposition, including the warring ethnically armed groups, can come to the table for any meaningful dialogue,” said Anghuman Chuduri based in Singapore Analyzer of Foreign Policy.
Any statement of fire termination will probably be “temporary and highly vulnerable to be disturbed, given the tension of the ground,” he said, expecting the junta to “quietly use the effects of the earthquake to worsen the resistance capabilities and to win the upper hand in the battlefield.”
Last Wednesday, the military announced 20-day cessation of fire It continues until April 22 to support humanitarian efforts while warning that he will “answer” if the rebels initiate attacks.
The military junta has already shown through its continuing air strikes that it will prioritize the victory of resistance to disaster relief.
Scott Marseil
A former US Ambassador in Myanmar
Myanmar descended into a political and humanitarian crisis since 2021, when his military was overthrown by a chosen government, igniting a lot of civil war, which displaced 3.5 million and left its economy in tearing.
If nothing else, the earthquake can make Myanmar, “Even more than an unsuccessful and violent state,” said Joshua Kurjzik, a senior associate of Southeast Asia and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations.
“Quake’s poor response – there is no way for the junta to have a worthy answer – it will only strengthen the public anger and disgust by the ruling military, already overlooked by a large part of the population, “said a curlator, while” the opposition will be supported by people again, seeing the junta’s inadequacy, but killing people. “
Armed location of conflict and events (ACLED) data, which monitors global conflicts, ranks Myanmar as The second most violent and dangerous place in the world Last year.
About 90% of The 55 million population in the nation were exposed to political violence, ACLED notedS His people also do not have enough access to electricity, communications, healthcare and education and are vulnerable to crimes, including human trafficking.
Policy
The devastating earthquake struck at a time when the military junta suffered damage to a battlefield, losing control of significant territories in Myanmar while his opponents advanced.
Myanmar Men Ang Ang Ang Chiefs, when the survivors of the earthquake gather in the Union of a hospital in Napidau on March 28, 2025, after an earthquake in Central Myanmar.
SAI Aung Main | AFP | Ghetto images
The consequences of the earthquake prompted the junta to “calibrate its priorities – to continue waging the Civil War or to focus on practical and humanitarian needs,” says Yen Gi, a senior analyst in the National Security Program at the School of International Studies of S. Rajaram.
Despite the temporary and regional termination of fire, “it is unlikely to open enough political space for peaceful transactions, as this goes beyond humanitarian problems,” she added.
Prior to the fire termination announcement, the military remained on a military basis and held several air strikes in the areas affected by the earthquake, According to Amnesty International ReportsS
The junta also strives Slow Humanitarian Efforts By maintaining strict security measures and using its forces to block supply to help for zones affected near the epicenter controlled by anti -government forces, according to the human rights service of the United Nations on Friday.
In an incident emphasizing the challenges of providing assistance against the background of the ongoing civil war, the junta said Her troops fired warning shots on a Chinese convoy of the Red Cross, which failed to withdraw into a conflict area.
“The military junta has already shown through its continuing air strikes that it will give priority to the victory of resistance to disaster relief,” says Scott Marseil, senior Bower Group Asia and former US ambassador to Myanmar.
Diplomatic window
Nevertheless, the natural disaster prompted the ostracized Junta leader to engage with leaders from neighboring countries such as China, India and Southeast Asia, making the way for a common election in December.
“The Junta clearly uses the earthquake as a window of opportunities to strengthen its diplomatic powers in the region,” seeking to stand up as the only legal government in Myanmar, said Chuduri.
During a rare foreign trip after the devastating quake, the head of Junta Min Aung Hlaing, avoided by most world leaders, was Warmly welcomed from senior Thai officials when he visited the Bangkok capital for a regional summit. At the sidelines of the top he met with Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss Rehabilitation after the earthquake effort and strengthen bilateral connections.
China was one of the first to send help and help workers to help recovering efforts in Myanmar, Promising 100 million yuan (13.7 million dollars) Delivery value. US, a key player in early efforts to provide help after hookah, promised a a relatively modest $ 9 million In humanitarian donations to the nation in Southeast Asia, following US President Donald Trump A decision to reduce foreign assistanceS
The offensive of the charm with other Asian leaders after the earthquake may be an unexpected silver lining for the junta to win some service in the upcoming elections.
“The support of the junta election is equal to the support of the democratic transition,” said Chuduri, adding that foreign nations can see it as the junta “move to a civil government, although reality is very different.”
The promised election was widely criticized as shame to keep the military in power through proxies, given that dozens of political parties were banned. But the boss of the junta min Aun Loing According to messages At the summit last Friday, the December 2025 planned elections will continue despite the disaster.
