US and Iran still far from nuclear conversations

Donald Trump is a man quickly.

In several short months he has been in service, the US president has tried and failed to bring peace to Gaza and Ukraine. He bombed Yemen. He began a global trade war. Now he is focusing, so it’s for Iran.

This has always been on the President’s job list. For Trump Iran is an unfinished business from his first term.

The problem remains the same as then: what can Iran stop looking for a nuclear weapon?

Iran denies that there is such an ambition. But other countries believe that the Islamic Republic wants at least the ability to build a nuclear warhead, a desire that some fear can cause a race with weapons or even a comprehensive war in the Middle East.

In 2015, Iran agreed with a deal with the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia and China. It was called the joint overall action plan (JCPOA).

According to its provisions, Iran will limit its nuclear ambitions – and allow international inspectors – in exchange for the cancellation of economic sanctions.

But Trump removed the United States from the 2018 deal, claiming that he had rewarded terrorism by funding Iran’s Proxi militias like Hamas and Hezbollah. The United States has resumed sanctions.

Subsequently, Iran ignored some of the transaction limitations and enriched more and more uranium nuclear fuel.

Analysts fear that Iran may soon have enough uranium of weapons to make a nuclear warhead.

The International Atomic Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimates Iran’s 60% enriched reserves, can make about six bombs if enriched at the next and final level.

Within days of taking office, Trump has restored his previous policy to the so -called “maximum pressure” on Iran.

On February 4, with his trademark Fat Feltip Pen, he signed a memorandum that ordered the Ministry of the United States to impose additional sanctions on Iran and punish countries that violate existing sanctions, especially those who buy Iranian oil.

Now the White House hopes to match this economic pressure with diplomacy.

Last month, Trump sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Hamenei.

The president suggested that negotiations start and look for a deal within a few months.

He has now agreed Direct discussions between us and Iranian employees in Oman over the weekend.

The US threat to Iran is explicit: consult a transaction or face hostilities.

“If the conversations are not successful with Iran, I think Iran will be in great danger,” Trump said on Monday.

So how can Iran react?

Some Policy in Tehran seem to want to agree that a transaction that can be canceled.

The Iranian economy is in a difficult position, with a towering inflation and a dipping currency.

But any such transaction may include compromises that some hard lines could find difficult for the stomach.

Iran has suffered huge reversions in recent months, seeing the proxy militias heavily weakened by the war with Israel and his regional ally, President Bashar al -Assad of Syria, expelled. Some of Tehran claim that now it may be exactly the time to build nuclear deterrence.

Both the US and Iran look far apart. Their negotiation positions are not explicit.

But the United States has clarified that it wants the full disassembly of Iran’s nuclear program, including the full end of any higher enrichment of Uranus, plus more support for Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hutis in Yemen.

This can be too much to accept Iran.

A complete ban on any nuclear enrichment – even for civil purposes – has long been regarded as an absolute red line for Tehran.

There is also a problem with Iranian technological expertise: his scientists simply know more about how to make nuclear weapons than 10 years ago.

As for Israel, it became clear that it would only accept the full end of any Iranian nuclear capacity. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he would agree to “the way he was made in Libya.”

This is a reference to the decision of the late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi to dismantle his entire nuclear program in 2003 in exchange for cancellation of sanctions.

But Iran is unlikely to follow this precedent.

What if the conversations fail?

Israel has long been considering military capabilities to try to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities. But many of them are buried deep in underground bunkers.

Military analysts say Israel will not only need the US to bomb Iran, it may also need special forces on the spot to ensure the destruction of its nuclear facilities.

This means that hostilities would be risky and its success is by no means guaranteed.

Trump also came to office, promising not to start more so -called “forever wars” and universal regional conflict involving Iran, can become one of them.

This did not stop the US President from giving Israel more air defenses and had more B2 bombers over long distances in the region.

So for now, Trump seems to be looking for a diplomatic solution – a person who Israel may have to accept as facts, regardless of his provisions.

But if there is no agreement, it reserves the right to use force, the consequences of which could be detrimental.

In the meantime, the president allows two parties to agree to a deal.

He may have forgotten that he needed two years to agree to JCPOA. Hastry diplomacy is not always a successful diplomacy.