Why Trump hits China for trade

Suddenly Donald Trump’s trade war is in much more focus.

Instead of fighting all fronts against the world, this now looks more like a battle in Trump’s familiar territory: America against China.

The 90-day pause of the higher “vengeful” tariffs imposed on dozens of countries still leaves a universal tariff for the 10%board.

But China-who sends everything from the iPhone to toys and represents about 14% of all American imports-a separate for much harsher treatment at 125%.

Trump said the increase was due to Beijing’s willingness to avenge his own 84% tax on American goods, a move that the president described as a “lack of respect”.

But for a politician, who for the first time fights the White House on the back of an anti-China message, there is much more than simple revenge.

Trump is an unfinished business at this first service mandate.

“We didn’t have time to do the right thing we are doing now,” he told reporters.

The goal is nothing less than the obstruction of an established global trade system focused on China as a factory of the world, as well as the once -widely perceived opinion, which is at its core – the idea that more than this trade is in itself.

To find out how central this is about the thinking of the US president, you must return to the time before someone ever thinks of him as a possible candidate for a position, let alone a probable winner.

In 2012, when I first reported from Shanghai – Chinese business capital – increased trade in the country was seen by almost everyone – global business leaders, Chinese employees visiting foreign governments and trade delegations, foreign correspondents and economists – as without the brain.

This enhances global growth, providing endless supply of cheap goods, enriching the Chinese army of new factory workers, increasingly embedded in global supply chains, and provides profitable capabilities to multinational corporations that sell their goods to their newly -sized middle classes.

Within a few years of my arrival, China has surpassed the United States to become the world’s largest market for Rolls Royce, General Motors and Volkswagen.

There was also a deeper justification.

As China has become more rich, so the theory has passed, the Chinese will begin to require political reform.

Their cost habits would also help China move to a consumer society.

But the first of these aspirations has never happened, like the ruling Communist Party in China only tightens its grip on power.

And the second did not happen fast enough, and China still depends on exports, but it also openly plans to become more dominant.

His scandalous political plan – published in 2015 and entitled “Made in China 2025” – exposes a huge state vision to become a global leader in a number of key production sectors, from aerospace space to ships to electric vehicles.

And so it was that just a year later, a full politically unknown outsider began an outsider for the US President, making the case repeatedly on the traces of the campaign that China’s rise has carved the US economy, caused Rustilt’s decline and cost workers with blue collars for livelihoods and dignity.

Trump’s first trade war broke the form and broke the consensus. His successor, President Joe Biden, kept much of his tariffs in China on the spot.

Nevertheless, although they undoubtedly caused pain in China, they did not do much to change the economic model.

China now produces 60% of world electric cars – most of them made by their own home brands – and 80% of the batteries that feed them.

So, now Trump is back, with this escalation of Tito-Data on the taxes.

Perhaps this would be the biggest shock ever delivered to the established global trading system if it wasn’t for all other tariff measures that the US president, which the President of the US, has unfolded in recent days.

What happens then depends on two key questions.

First, whether China takes advantage of this negotiation proposal.

And secondly, assuming that it ultimately does it, whether China is ready to make the basic discounts America is looking for, including a complete repair of its economic model managed by exports.

Responding to them, the first thing we have to say is that we are in a completely unfulfilled territory, so we have to be cautious to anyone who says that it knows how Beijing is likely to react.

But there are certainly reasons to be cautious.

China’s vision of its economic power – a basis of strong exports and a tightly protected internal market – is now closely linked to its idea of ​​national rejuvenation and supremacy of its one -party system.

His strict control over the information sphere means that it is unlikely that his barriers will be dropped to US technology companies, for example.

But there is a third question and he has to answer America.

Do the US still believe in free trade? Donald Trump often suggests that tariffs are a good thing, not only as a means of achieving an end, but as an end.

He talks about the benefits of a protectionist barrier to America to stimulate internal investment, encourage US companies to return these foreign supplies for home supplies and increase tax revenue.

And if Beijing believes that this is really the main goal of tariffs, it can decide that there is nothing to negotiate anyway.

Instead of supporting the idea of ​​economic cooperation, the two largest superpowers in the world may be closed in the fight for economic supremacy for winners.

If so, it would really not make a breakdown of the old consensus and a very different, probably a very dangerous future.