US forecast to be affected by the main economies affected

The forecast for US economic growth this year has received the largest decrease between advanced economies from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) due to uncertainty caused by trade rates.

Growth is now expected to be 1.8% this year, which is more than the IMF assessment of 2.7% for the United States in January.

A sharp increase in tariffs and uncertainty will lead to a “significant slowdown” of global growth, the fund predicts.

UK forecast is also reducedThis year, the economy is expected to grow by 1.1% this year.

But the IMF predicts that the economic growth of the United Kingdom will be stronger than Germany, France and Italy.

However, inflation in the UK will be the highest in advanced economies in the world, at 3.1% this year, to a large extent due to higher accounts, including energy and water.

The forecasts come as the best economic politicians gather in Washington for the IMF spring meetings and the World Bank.

IMF chief economist Pierre-Elivi Gurinchas said the global economy “still carries significant features” from “heavy shocks of the last four years”.

“It is now being tested seriously once again,” he added.

President Donald Trump made noise of reports on this year’s tariffs – taxes charged with goods imported into the United States from other countries.

In the increasing trade war, the United States has set up to 145% of Chinese goods, while China has hit 125% taxes on US products.

The United States has also introduced a 10% tax rate on goods in the vast majority of other countries, while stopping much higher rates for dozens of countries for 90 days.

Trump says tariffs will encourage US consumers to buy more goods produced by Americans, increase the amount of taxes raised and lead to huge levels of investment in the country.

The IMF, however, emphasized the potential negative impact on global trade, given that modern supply chains are so interconnected.

The uncertainty about commercial policy was a “major factor” behind growth decreasing, said G -n Gourinchas.

“Faced with increased uncertainty … The initial reaction of many companies will be to pause, reduce investment and reduce purchases.”

The IMF predicts that the global economy will increase by 2.8% this year, which is less than its previous 3.3% forecast and by 3.0% in 2026.

The reduction to the US growth prognosis is due to a greater uncertainty of policy, trade tensions and more slowly than the expected consumer expenses, the IMF said. Tariffs are also expected to reach growth in 2026.

The IMF said it had a 40% likelihood of a US recession, higher than its 25% rating in October last year.

Early on Tuesday, banking group Institute of International Finance He said he was expecting a “shallow recession” in the US later this year, with negative growth in the third and fourth quarter of 2025.

China is expected to grow by 4% this year, which is more than a previous IMF rating of 4.6%.

In the United Kingdom, the revision down reflects the impact of tariffs, the higher cost of occupying the government and the higher consumer costs as a result of higher accounts and energy costs.

The IMF forecast for 2025 for the United Kingdom is already close to 1% Growth Growth Forecast by Budget Liability Service (OBR) last month. The IMF expects the United Kingdom to grow by 1.4% next year.

In response to the forecast, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said it shows that the UK is still the fastest growing European country of G7 because of the “reform that will increase long-term growth in the UK.”

Reeves added that “the world has changed” and it will be in Washington this week, “defending British interests and will make the case for free and fair trade.”

However, Mel Street, the conservative chancer of the shadow, said the IMF’s prospects were “an alarming accusation of Laburi’s economic approach.”

“The IMF has lowered the UK growth forecast by provoking serious concerns about lack of confidence and labor guidance. They also significantly reviewed their inflation prognosis,” he said.

IMF’s worldwide economic perspective also contains the following forecasts:

• The euro area growth prognosis is trimmed to 0.8% this year by 1%. It should then grow by 1.2% in 2026, aided by higher government spending in Germany
• Spain is the only advanced economy that sees the upgrading of the growth prognosis of 2025 – up to 2.5% of 2.3%. This is partly due to the reconstruction activity after flooding
• Canada growth forecast for this year is reduced to 1.4% of 2%, reflecting the uncertainty of tariffs and “geopolitical tension”
• Mexico sees the biggest decrease. It is now planned to be concluded by 0.3% this year, compared to the January forecast of 1.4%.

Forecasts are never perfect given the many factors that affect economic growth, and the IMF acknowledged that his last forecasts were particularly challenging.

The figures given are what the IMF calls its “reference forecast” based on the situation as of April 4, which was two days after Trump’s announcement for wide -ranging tariffs.

G -n Gourinchas said that while the prognosis for reference is the Central IMF scenario, there are many possible paths that reflect the unpredictability of the future trade policy and the varied impact of tariffs in different countries. “

The IMF also examined the situation after the United States temporarily stopped many tariffs as they sharply raised those of China.

G -H Gourinchas said the tariff pause does not “significantly” change the global prospects of its forecast, as the overall effective tariff rate of the United States and China remains high and the uncertainty about policy continues.