The United States is intensifying the offer to end war in Ukraine

The rate of diplomatic efforts to end war in Ukraine is accelerating.

There are talks in London between employees from the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Ukraine and the United States. Donald Trump’s special prana Steve Vikof heads to Moscow for his fourth meeting with President Putin.

Still, there is little clarity on where these efforts are directed or whether they will be successful.

Not so long ago, the American plan for the termination of fighting in Ukraine was clear.

There will be an immediate, unconditional 30-day termination of the fire, followed by longer-term negotiations to establish a constant settlement of war.

Ukraine agreed with this and – under pressure from the United States – made a huge discount; This will no longer require the promise of long -term security guarantees before termination of hostilities.

But Russia refused to play a ball, insisting that there could be no end to fighting until a series of conditions were met.

In particular, Vladimir Putin said that the “main reasons” of the war should be considered, namely his fears of an expanding NATO Alliance and the very existence of Ukraine as a sovereign state is somehow a threat to Russia’s security.

The United States has accepted the premise of this Russian argument and are now deep in the weeds of a potential proposal to end fire.

In recent days, there have been different leaks for the most American ideas, the status and the truth of which are challenged among diplomats.

But it seems that there is a framework in the following lines: Russia will stop its invasion of current lines and refuse its ambition to control the other parts of the four regions of Eastern Ukraine, which has not already occupied, namely Luhansk, Donetsk, Procerns and Herson.

In return, the United States would accept actual four occupied territories as Russian controlled.

He will also recognize the Crimea – who was annexed illegally by Russia in 2014 – as Russian territory of De Jure. The US will also ensure that Ukraine has ruled out to join NATO.

As part of this plan, the United States can also take control of the controversial Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant – currently in Russian hands – and power electricity in both parts of Ukrainian territory.

This proposal will then be supported by the threat from the United States – as it rehearses both by President Trump and by Secretary of State Marco Rubio – that he will abandon the negotiations if there is no immediate agreement.

At first glance, this proposal seems unlikely to succeed.

President Zelenski has already made it clear that Ukraine will never admit that Crimea is a Russian sovereignty.

Even if he wanted to do it, he couldn’t, because he would first require a referendum from the Ukrainian people.

European powers clarify that they will not accept Russian sovereignty over Crimea, something that would violate post -war international legal rules, which borders should not change with military force.

Legal experts say there are even technical issues about the United States recognizing Crimea because of certain laws adopted by the US Congress.

However, Western diplomats do not reject the plan out of hand. “There’s room to land,” one told me. “This is just a question whether there is enough trust between the countries to move forward.”

They say that since the proposed transaction, as it has leaked so far, contains huge gaps.

There is no reference to a ban on Western countries that continue to transmit Ukraine, something that has been a red line for Russia in the past.

There is also no reference to Russia’s demands that Ukraine be “demilitarized”, in other words, that its army is widely reduced in size, again another long -term demand for Moscow.

According to Ukraine’s deal, it may not be allowed to join NATO, but it may join the European Union.

There is no apparent objection to a European “calm for calming” in Western Ukraine after each cessation of fire to deter the future Russian aggression.

But it is not yet clear whether the United States is ready to provide a “rear” of this force. There is also uncertainty about what economic sanctions against Russia will be canceled and when and under what circumstances.

In other words, a huge amount of details is unclear and yet to be discussed.

And all sides look far apart.

Ukraine still wants an immediate conditional cessation of the fire and then speaks. The US wants a quick victory. And Russia wants to get deep into the workpiece of the peace transaction, similar to which it usually takes months, if not years to resolve.

There is an old Russian who says that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.” We look far from it right now.