India strikes – how will Pakistan react? Four key questions

In a dramatic operation overnight, India said he was launching rocket and air strikes at nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan, administered by Kashmir, aimed at what he calls warlike positions based on “religious intelligence”.

The strikes, which lasted only 25 minutes between 01:05 and 01:30 India (19:35 and 20:00 GMT on Tuesday), sent shock waves through the region, with the inhabitants shocked by thunderstorms.

Pakistan said only six seats were struck and claimed to have removed five Indian fighter jets and a drone – a claim that India did not confirm.

Islamabad said 26 people were killed and 46 were injured in Indian air strikes and firing the control line (LOC) – a grandfather’s factual border between India and Pakistan. In the meantime, India’s army has announced that 10 civilians have been killed by Pakistani firing on its part at the factual border.

This acute escalation comes after last month Deadly belligerent To tourists in Pahalgha in India -administered Kashmir, pushing the tension between nuclear armed rivals to dangerous new heights. India says there is clear evidence connecting terrorists based in Pakistan and external participants in the attack – a claim that Pakistan flatly denies. Islamabad also said that India had not offered any evidence to support its request.

In 2016, after 19 Indian soldiers were killed in URIIndia launches “surgical strikes” in LOC.

In 2019, the Bombing Pulwamawho left 40 Indian paramilitary officials dead, prompted Air strikes deep in Balacot – The first such action in Pakistan of 1971 – Sparkle of retaliatory raids and air fighting dogs.

Experts say the revenge on Pahalg’s attack stands out with its broader scope aimed at the infrastructure of three major belligerent groups based in Pakistan.

India says she has achieved nine belligerent goals in Pakistan and Pakistan, administered by Kashmir, hitting deep in key hubs of Lashkar-e- Taiba (Let), Jaish-e-mohammedand Hezbol MujahidenS

Among the closest goals were two camps in Sialcot, just 6-18 km from the border, according to an Indian spokesman.

The deepest hit, India says, was the headquarters of the Jaish-e-Mohammed in Bahawalpur, 100 km inside Pakistan. The Let camp in Musafarabad, 30 km from the local and capital of Pakistan Kashmir, was linked to the latest attacks in India, Kashmir, the spokesman said.

Pakistan says six places have been affected, but denies claims that there are terrorist camps.

“What is striking this time is the expansion of India’s goals beyond past models. Previously, strikes such as Balacot focused on Pakistan Kashmir-administered through the Militarized Borderline line,” said Srinat Ragani, based in Delhi.

“This time India hit the Penjab of Pakistan, across the international border, Aimed at terrorist infrastructureHeadquarters and famous places in Bahawalpur and Muridke, related to Lashkar-E-Taiba. They also hit the assets of Jaish-E-Mohammed and Hezbol Mujahid. This implies a broader, more geographical extensive answer, signaling that many groups are already in the cross -haired hair in India -and send a wider message, “he says.

The International Border in India and Pakistan is border Separation of both sides, extending from Gujarat to Jamu.

Ajay Bisaria, a former Indian Supreme Commissioner in Pakistan, told the BBC that what India did was a “Balacot plus an answer designed to detect determination aimed at known terrorist hubs, but accompanied by a strong child message.”

“These blows were more precise, directed and more visible than in the past. Therefore (they are) less denying than Pakistan,” says G -Bisaria.

Indian sources claim that strikes were aimed at “restore deterge.”

“The Indian government believes that deterrence established in 2019 has worn and should be restored,” says Prof. Ragavan.

“This seems to reflect Israel’s doctrine that deterrence requires periodic, repeated blows. But assuming that the impact will only discourage terrorism, we run the risk of giving Pakistan any incentive to avenge – and this can quickly deviate from control.”

The bigger part of the experts agree that the revenge from Pakistan is inevitable – and diplomacy will go into play.

“Pakistan’s response is sure. The challenge would be to manage the next level of escalation. Crisis diplomacy will matter here,” says G -n Bisaria.

“Pakistan will receive advice on exercising restraint. But the key will be diplomacy after the Pakistani response to ensure that both sides do not quickly climb the ladder of escalation.”

Pakistan -based experts such as Ejaz Hussein, a political and military analyst based in Lahor, say that Indian surgical strikes aimed at places such as Muridke and Bahawalpur were “largely foreseen in view of the prevailing tension”.

Dr. Hussein believes that responding strikes are likely.

“Given the media rhetoric of the Pakistani military and stated the determination to arrange the results, the vengeful actions, probably in the form of surgical strikes across the border, may seem in the coming days,” he told the BBC.

But Dr. Hussein is worried that surgical strikes on both sides can “escalate in a limited conventional war.”

Christopher Clari of the University of Albany in the United States believes he is referring to the scale of India’s strikes, “visible damage to key objects” and reports victims, Pakistan is very likely to take revenge.

“Doing essentially would allow India’s permission to hit Pakistan whenever Delhi felt injured and would contradict the Pakistani military’s commitment to revenge with” Quid Pro Quo Plus, “said Clari, who studied South Asia’s policy before the BBC.

“In view of India’s goals for groups and facilities related to terrorism and militancy in India, I think it is likely – but far from sure – Pakistan will limit yourself to attacks against Indian military goals,“He said.

Despite the increasing tension, some experts still have hope for de -escalation.

“There is a decent chance to escape from this crisis with only one circle of reciprocal strikes and a period of increased firing along the line of control,” says Clari.

However, the risk of further escalation remains high, which makes this the “most dangerous” crisis in India-Pakistan ever since 2002 – And even more dangerous than the opposition of 2016 and 2019, he adds.

Experts in Pakistan note that despite the lack of military hysteria leading to India’s strike, the situation can quickly shift.

“We have a deeply destroyed political society, as the most popular leader in the country behind bars. In the Imran Khan prison, it sparked a strong anti-war reaction,” says Umer Faruk, an analyst based in Islamabad, and a former Jane defense correspondent week.

“Today, the Pakistani public is far less impatient to support the military compared to 2016 or 2019 -the usual wave of military hysteria is not remarkable. But if public opinion is shifted to the Central Pengjab, where India’s feelings will be more common, we can see a heightened civilian pressure. conflict. “

Dr. Hussein sounds similar moods.

“I believe that the current opposition to India enables the Pakistani military to regain public support, especially from the city middle classes that have recently criticized it for adopted political intervention,” he says.

“The active defense of the military is already intensifying through mass and social media, with some retail outlets claiming that six or seven Indian aircraft have been removed.

“Although these allegations impose an independent check, they serve to strengthen the image of the military among the segments of the public, which conventionally gather around the stories of national defense in a time of external threat.”

India again goes with a fine line between escalation and restraint.

Shortly after the attack in Pahalgham, India quickly avenges, closing the main border crossing point, stopping a water sharing contract, throwing diplomats and stopping most visas for Pakistan citizens. The troops on both sides exchange fire with small weapons, and India has banned all Pakistani aircraft from its airspace, a mirror of the earlier course of Pakistan. In response, Pakistan stopped the 1972 peace treaty and took its own discount measures.

This reflects India’s actions after the attack of Pulbulwa in 2019, when it quickly canceled the status of the best nation in Pakistan, imposed heavy tariffs and stopped key commercial and transport links.

The crisis escalates when India launched Balacot air strikes, followed by vindictive Pakistani air attacks and the capture of Indian pilot Abhinandan Vartaman, further enhancing tension. However, diplomatic channels eventually led to de -escalation, with Pakistan released the pilot in a gesture of goodwill.

“India was ready to give another chance to old-fashioned diplomacy …. this, as India, achieved a strategic and military goal and Pakistan, stating a concept of winning his internal audience,” Mr. Bisary told me last week.