Ukraine: What Trump does next is key

Volodymyr Zelensky gave a cautious and diplomatic response to Vladimir Putin’s late night for direct conversations in Istanbul next Thursday.

The Ukrainian leader can be expected to hit his opposite number in Moscow that he is not committed to a 30-day termination of fire, as required by Kiev and his Western allies on Saturday.

Instead, writing on X, Zelenski called it “A positive sign that the Russians finally began to consider terminating war”S

Zelenski added that Ukraine expects Russia to confirm that it will comply with the proposed 30-day termination of fire, starting on Monday.

It is difficult to say whether Zelenski really sees Putin’s proposal for direct conversations as a “positive sign”. This is as much for optics as anything else.

Neither Putin nor Zelenski want to be seen by US President Donald Trump as an obstacle to peace.

Trump’s reaction was significantly optimistic. Writing on his social platform for truth earlier, he hinted once again that this war was close to the end. He wrote: “A potentially great day for Russia and Ukraine!”

Putin said he wanted to deal with what he calls “the main reasons for the conflict.”

From his point of view, this means the unacceptable ambition of Ukraine to be part of a prosperous, democratic Europe, not to return to the orbit of Moscow and to become a knit, satellite nation as Belarus.

He will also want a company that Ukraine will never join NATO.

Moscow demanded on Saturday that before any ceasefire began, the West must stop arming Ukraine.

This, of course, would leave this country, which is much less capable of giving up the gradual progress of Russia on the front line -or, the worse, new offensive to take more land.

What Ukraine poorly needs its allies is a continuous flow of air protection to repel itself from the increasing number of drones and rockets that are launching across the common border in Kiev and other major cities.

Shortly after the dawn on Sunday, we were awakened by a warning of air and the sirens went out when more Russian drones started.

On May 9, the US Embassy in Kiev issued a warning to its citizens that in the coming days there was a “significant risk of air raids”.

One of the biggest concerns is that the Kremlin can shoot another hypersonic ballistic rocket of Orenik like the one that his powers fired at a factory in DNIPRO last November.

As its speed approaches 10 times the big speed of sound, Russia is proud that this rocket is “irresistible”.

So now the key question is what Trump does a further – and this can go in any way.

He could decide that his opposite number in Moscow simply strung him together, finding one excuse after another so as not to agree to the cessation of the fire.

Or given his historical warm relationship with Putin, will he throw the Russian leader a diplomatic savior and put pressure on Ukraine instead of sitting in Istanbul and listening to Moscow’s demands, whether there is a ceasefire, comes on Monday?