Russia may attack NATO in the next four years, the German defense chief warns

Members of the Western Alliance NATO have to prepare for a possible attack by Russia within the next four years, according to the Chief of Defense of Germany.

General Karsten Broyer told the BBC that Russia is producing hundreds of tanks a year, many of which can be used to attack NATO members by 2029 or even earlier.

He also insisted that NATO, the organization of the Northern Atlantic Treaty, remained united during the war in Ukraine, despite the differences in the opinion, recently expressed by both Hungary and Slovakia.

Gen Broyer spoke on the sidelines of Shangri-La dialogue, the Singapore Defense Summit, organized by the International Institute for Strategic Studies of Brain Trust.

His comments come weeks before the NATO Nations Summit in The Hague, where they are expected to discuss defense budgets, among other topics.

Gen. Breuer said NATO faces a “very serious threat” by Russia, which he never saw in his 40s in service.

At the moment, he said, Russia was building its strength to a “great degree”, producing approximately 1,500 basic combat tanks every year.

“Not every tank goes (the war in) Ukraine, but it also goes into shares and new military structures that are always facing the West,” he said.

Russia also produced four million rounds of 152mm artillery ammunition in 2024, and not all of them went to Ukraine, Gen Breer added.

“He intends and has a accumulation of stocks” for a possible future attack against NATO Baltic members, he said.

“This is evaluated by analysts – in 2029. So we have to be ready by 2029 … If you ask me now, is this a guarantee that has not been earlier than 2029? I would say that no, it is not. So we should be able to fight tonight,” he said.

Many have long been afraid of an attack on a NATO country, as this can cause a greater war between Russia and the United States, which is a key member of NATO. According to Article 5 of the NATO Agreement, any attack on a Member State would mean that other members should reach its protection.

Gen Broyer separated the so-called Suwalki Gap, an area bordering on Lithuania, Poland, Russia and Belarus, as one of the most vulnerable.

“The Baltic countries are really exposed to the Russians, aren’t you? And after you are there, you really feel it … in the conversations we have there,” he said.

The Estonians, he said, gave the analogy close to a fire, where they “feel the heat, to see the flames and to smell the smoke” while in Germany you “probably see a little smoke over the horizon and no more.”

Gen. Breuer said this shows the various perspectives among European countries from the threat of a possible Russian attack.

Russia’s gaze about the war in Ukraine was different from the west, he said, where Moscow sees war as more than a “continuum” in a greater conflict with NATO and therefore “tries to find ways in our defense lines and test it.”

He cites the latest attacks on underwater cables in the Baltic Sea, cyberattacks against European public transport and unidentified drones spotted over the German power plants and other infrastructure.

Therefore, NATO members have to rebuild their military, Gen Breer argued. “What we have to do now is really to lean and tell everyone, hey, get stuck … get more into it because we need it. We need it to be able to defend ourselves and therefore build deterrent.”

Asked by the BBC about NATO cohesion, given the closer relations of Hungary and Slovakia with Moscow, Gen Breer insisted that the union was still healthy.

He pointed to the decisions of Finland and Sweden to join NATO shortly after the war in Ukraine. “I have never seen such unity as now” among peoples and military leaders, “he said.

“They all understand the threat that is currently approaching NATO, everyone understands that we need to develop a determination direction in the direction of collective protection. This is clear to all. The emergency is seen.”

Gen Breer’s remarks are another sign of a significant change in attitudes in Germany to defense and Russia.

Like many Western countries, including the UK, it has reduced its investments in its military for many years.

But the recognition of the need to turn this is increasing, with even the Green Party on board a recent vote to eliminate restrictions on German defense costs.

But since Western military and political leaders say they are ready for the fight, there are questions about whether this is a case of ambition that ahead of reality.

It will take years for the military industrial base in Europe to increase in order to compare anywhere near the scale of the weapon that Russia broke out.

The United States is also withdrawn, not accumulating its defensive commitments in Europe to focus on the Indo-Titic Ocean.