The world’s leading democracies are struggling to govern.

Get free updates

Register easily Geopolitics myFT Digest — delivered straight to your inbox.

According to President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, the G7 is “the steering committee of the free world.” If so, the free world is in trouble. Most G7 governments are now so burdened by domestic political problems that they cannot govern their own countries – let alone the free world.

Consider the political situation in France, Germany, Canada, Japan and South Korea (the latter is not formally a member of the G7, but regularly attends the summit). It recently collapsed due to the inability of the French government to pass a budget. A The new prime minister It is in place, but it faces the same problems. There is much speculation that Emmanuel Macron will step down as president before the end of his term in 2027.

Germany is heading to elections after Olaf Scholz’s “traffic light” coalition collapsed. Japan’s recent election saw the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lose its majority for the first time since 2009 – with another election likely next year. in CanadaJustin Trudeau’s decade in office is coming to an end. The Prime Minister is being pressured to resign as his party has fallen behind in the elections.

of The piece of resistance It is a failure of democracy. South KoreaPresident Yun Suk-yeol declared martial law in the most desperate of political situations. Public protests quickly forced him to retreat and led to his indictment.

Apart from the US, the only two G7 countries that can claim to have stable governments are the UK and Italy. British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer won a majority in this summer’s election. But his poll ratings have been rapidly declining. In fact, Starmer is even bigger now. Unpopular After five months in office, longer than any UK prime minister in four decades. Only Italy’s Giorgia Meloni can make a convincing claim that remains to be seen. Suitable In her voters and markets.

So what’s wrong with the G7? As before, the environment is important. Corruption scandals in Japan have weakened the LDP. Macron and Trudeau are leaders who have lost their luster after many years in power.

But there seem to be two main reasons why almost all of the G7 democracies find it difficult to maintain stable governments. The first is the collapse of the political center and the rise of populist parties. It is the second. Fiscal stress Driven by slow growth, aging societies, the pandemic, the 2008 financial crisis, and increased defense spending demands.

Populism and fiscal problems are feeding each other and making it harder and harder to manage. The French government fell after this He tried to reduce spending and increase taxes To deal with the budget deficit of 6 percent of the GDP. Because a large part of the French parliament is left- or right-wing, political negotiations are extremely difficult.

Stammer’s majority in Britain enabled their government to do what the French could not – raise taxes, by An effort to balance the books. But tax increases have contributed to Labour’s fall in popularity. The difficulty of finding money in hard times played a major role in the political crises in Canada and Japan.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House may contribute to the atmosphere of political uncertainty in the G7. Instead of trying to help his Democratic allies, Trump and his current favorite governments; Elon MuskIt seems to be fun to pile on the pain. Maga Republicans especially like to prey on centre-left leaders like Trudeau, Scholes and Starmer.

Trump went out of his way to insult Trudeau by referring to Canada, America’s 51st state, and its prime minister as a “governor.” Musk has made headlines across Europe Posting on XOnly the AfD can save Germany. He also held a well-known meeting with Britain’s reform leader Nigel Farage – who made it clear he would expect Musk’s financial support.

Trump’s Republicans do not see Europe’s traditional conservatives as a sister party. British Tories leader Kimi Badenoch and Frederick MerzThe leader of Germany’s Christian Democrats only sees Trump and Musk as extending to the extreme nationalist right. Christian Lindner, the leader of the German struggle, made a clear plea to “Elon” and declared that the AfD is a “far-right extremist party”. Touchingly, he seems to believe this will get rid of Musk.

Currently, the German CDU is far ahead of the AfD in German elections. But it is clear that the far-right and populist parties in the G7 now have a friend in the White House. Musk could help parties like AfD and Reform publicly and possibly financially. But his support can sometimes backfire. Nationalist parties like French national parade Have a strong anti-American culture and be careful not to become a tool of rich foreigners.

Trump’s interventions may not prove that he can plant ideological bedfellows around the rest of the G7. Instead, it could create a situation where the leaders of many of America’s closest allies see the US president as a dangerous political enemy rather than a friend.

gidon.rachman@ft.com