Iran is trying from Israel’s attack

Israel’s “rising lion”, as it calls its attack against Iran, is unprecedented. It is significantly more sophisticated and ambitious than everything that came before, including the two missiles and drones, which I had with Iran last year. For Iran, this is the largest attack on her territory after the Iran-Iraq war from 1980-1988.

In the most darkest hours before dawn The Israeli Air Force was aimed not only at objects related to Iran’s nuclear program, but also the air protection of the country and ballistic missiles, thus reducing Iran’s ability to avenge.

On the spot and in the shadows, the network of operating persons working for Mossad, Israel abroad reports that it helps to determine the exact location of key figures in both the military command and in nuclear scientists.

The killed at night include the leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Revolutionary Corps (IRGC), the guardians of the Islamic Revolution, which overthrew the chess regime in 1979, as well as the head of the mainstream armed forces and the head of the IRGC Air Force. Iran says at least six of his scientists have been killed.

Once again, it has been shown that the Israeli spy agency has successfully penetrated the very heart of the Iranian security establishment, proving that no one there is safe.

Iran’s state television reported that 78 people had been killed and said that civilians, including children, were among those killed. (This is an unofficial figure and not verified independently.)

Mossad has been reported to fire drones from Iran as part of this attack. The main goals of all this operation are the Nathan Nuclear Facility and the IRGC bases. For Israeli military planning this has long been coming.

Iran is trying and this can only be the first wave. There will be many more potential goals in the list of Israel, although some may be out of its range, buried deep underground in reinforced foundations under the hard rock.

So what did this attack from Israel and why now?

Israel and several Western countries suspect that Iran has secretly worked for what is called a “breakthrough capacity”, which means the meaning of no return in the development of a viable nuclear weapon.

Iran denies this and has always insisted that her civil nuclear program – which has received assistance from Russia – is for all peaceful purposes.

For more than a decade, Israel has been trying with varying degrees of success to slow down and regain Iran’s nuclear progress. Iranian scientists have been mysteriously killed by unknown attackers, the military leader of the nuclear program, Brig-Generel Fahrizade, was killed by a remote control of the machine gun on a lonely road near Tehran in 2020.

Previously, the American and Israeli cyber -effects were able to insert a devastating computer virus, cow -named Stuxnet, in Iran’s centrifuges, which made them rotate out of control.

This week, the UN nuclear guard, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAE), found that Iran was in violation of its non -proliferation obligations and threatened to direct him to the UN Security Council.

Many concerns about Iran’s nuclear program stem from its storage of a highly enriched uranium (Heu), which is enriched to 60 percent, far above the level required to generate civil nuclear energy and a relatively short jump to the level needed to start building a bomb.

There was a deal to limit Iran’s nuclear program. It was concluded in 2015 during Obama’s presidency, but Donald Trump called it the “oldest deal in the world” and when he entered the White House, he pulled the United States from him. The following year, Iran stopped taking into account him.

No one outside Iran wants the Islamic Republic to own a nuclear bomb. Israel, a small country with a large part of its population with 9.5 million concentrated in urban areas, views nuclear armed Iran as an existential threat.

He points to the numerous statements of senior Iranian figures calling for the destruction of the State of Israel. Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the Arab Gulf countries do not care much about the revolutionary regime of the Islamic Republic in Iran, but they have learned to live with it as a neighbor.

Now they will be extremely nervous about the risks of this conflict, spread on their own shores.

For Israel, the weather was crucial. Iran is already weakened by the effective defeat or elimination of its proxies and allies in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. His air defenses were highly compromised after the attacks from Israel last October.

There is a nice president in the White House, and finally, Israel’s reports are afraid that part of the key uranium enrichment equipment in Iran is about to be moved deep underground.

It is clear what Israel wants from this operation: the least is to return Iran’s nuclear program for years. Preferably you would like to stop it completely.

There will also be many in the military, political and intelligence circles of Israel, who will hope that this operation can even weaken Iran’s leadership to collapse completely, introducing a better regime that is no longer a threat in the region. This may be desirable thinking on their part.

President Trump said on Friday that Iran had a “second chance” to agree to a deal. The sixth round of negotiations in the US and Iran had to be held in Muscat on Sunday, but Israel did not designate much store on these conversations.

Just as Russia is accused of striking Trump for peace talks with Ukraine, Israel believes Iran is doing the same here.

Israel believes that this is the best and probably the last chance to kill Iran’s suspect.

“Israel’s unprecedented strikes through Iran at night were intended to kill President Trump’s chances of reaching an agreement to control the Iranian nuclear program,” says Eli Geranmay, a senior policy at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

“It is clear that their (attacks) time and the large -scale character were intended to derail the conversations completely.”

Washington settled on a certain length of Iran that it did not participate in this attack. But if Iran decides to take revenge on any of the many US bases in the region, directly or through its proxies, then there is a risk that the United States can get into another conflict in the Middle East.

Iranian Ayatola Ali Hamenei’s supreme leader has promised a “rude punishment” for Israel, but Iran is in a much more lavish position today than two years ago and his revenge capabilities are limited.

However, there is even more risk here. Israel’s surgery can still cause a reaction, causing a race with nuclear weapons.

Hardline Hawks in the interior of Iran’s security has long claimed that the best deterrent against the future attacks of Israel or the United States will be to acquire the nuclear bomb. They will take into account the various fates of leaders in Libya and North Korea.

Libya Colonel Gaddafi gave up his weapons program for mass destruction in 2003; Eight years later, he is dead in a ditch, removed by Arab spring protests, supported by Western air force.

In contrast, North Korea opposed all international sanctions to build a great arsenal of nuclear warheads and intercontinental ballistic missiles, enough to make every potential attacker think twice.

Whatever the final damage is, due to Israel’s surgery, a growing lion, if Iran’s regime survives – and he has denied the chances before – then there is a risk, he will now accelerate his race to build and even test a nuclear bomb.

If this happens, this will almost inevitably cause a race with nuclear weapons in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and possibly Egypt decide that they also need one.

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