Sudan in danger of self -destruction such as conflict and reign of hunger

Sudan’s war is in strategic impasse. Each country relies its hopes for a new offensive, a new weapon supply, a new political union, but none of them can gain a decisive advantage.

The losses are the Sudanese people. Every month there are more that are hungry, displaced, desperate.

Sudan’s armed forces triumphantly announced the restoration of central Hardum in March.

He broadcasts photos of his leader, Gen Abdel Fatah Al Burhan, passing through The ruins of the Republican Palace of the capitalwhich were controlled by the Paramilitary Forces of Rapid Support (RSF), from the latest days of the war in April 2023.

The army unfolded weapons recently acquired by Egypt, Turkey and other Middle East countries, including Qatar and Iran. But his offensive quickly stopped.

RSF, headed by Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, replied with a devastating attack by drones against Port Sudan, which is both the temporary capital of the military government and the main entrance point for humanitarian aid.

These were complex long-distance drones that the army accuses the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in delivery-blanket, which the UAE rejects, along with well-documented reports that it supports RSF during the 27-month conflict.

RSF also expanded operations south of Hardum.

Hemedti made a deal with Abdel Aziz Al Hilu, commander of the rebels of the Sudanese People’s Army Veteran, who controls the Nuba mountains near the border with South Sudan.

Their forces in combination can be able to impede the border with Ethiopia, hoping to open new delivery routes.

Meanwhile, RSF is besieging the capital of North Darfur, El-Fasher, which is defended by a coalition of former Darfuria rebels known as the Joint Forces, an ally with the army.

Most of the fighters are ethnic heating, which were in fierce conflict with the Arab groups that form the RSF nucleus.

A month after a month, the blockade, bombing and ground attacks created hunger among residents, with the people of the displaced Camp of Zamamim the worst.

RSF and its allied Arab militia have a terrifying record for slaughter, rape and ethnic cleansing. Human Rights Organizations have accused him of Genocide against the people of Masalith from West DarfurS

The communities of El-Fasher are afraid that if the joint forces are defeated, they will undergo savage repression in the hands of RSF.

The pressure on El-Fasher is growing. Last week, RSF won desert garrisons at the Libya border held by joint forces.

The military has accused the forces loyal to the Libyan strong gene Caliph Haftar, who controls the eastern part of the country and has also been reported a beneficiary of the EMIRATE support to join the attack.

Sudan’s civilians who had ruled the extraordinary feat of Download the longtime leader of the country Omar Al-Bashir through non-violent protestsare in disarray.

The different groups are aligned with Burhan, with hemmeds or an attempt to bet a neutral position. They are all active on social media, polarized, scarce and fragmented.

Neighboring committees, which were the driving force of the Civil Revolution, adhere to life.

Most hold their political heads, focusing on the main humanitarian activities instead. Known as “emergency response premises”, assistants admit that they are the most effective channel for life-saving help.

But many have lost their funding When US President Donald Trump’s administration has closed USAID and other donors did not enter the offense.

Both the army and RSF see every form of civil activism as a threat.

They are destroyed, arrested, tortured and killed national aid workers and human rights activists.

There is no reliable peace process.

The UN chief diplomat appointed to Sudan, former Algeria Ramutan Prime Minister, formulates a peaceful plan, which is based on the assumption that the army will achieve a military victory.

Everything that will be left to negotiate will be the disarmament of RSF and the country’s reconstruction. This is completely unrealistic.

Burhan has a great diplomatic advantage over Hemedti because the UN recognizes the military side as a Sudan government, even when it does not control the national capital.

Hemedti’s attempt to launch a parallel administration for the vast territories controlled by RSF has won a little credibility.

Foreign Ministers at a conference in London in AprilThe host of the British Foreign Secretary, David Lami, failed to agree on the way to peace. The chairmen of the conference had to put up with a statement that covered the familiar place.

On this occasion, as before, progress was blocked because Saudi Arabia and the UAE could not agree.

Diplomats admit that Sudan’s war is an African problem that needs an Arab solution.

The Road to Peace in Khartoum passes through Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and Cairo.

For Egypt, the big question is whether Burhan is able to distance himself from the Islamists of Sudan.

In Bashir, the Islamist movement has been in power for 30 years and established a great and well -funded organization that still exists.

The Islamists mobilized the combat brigades, which were key to the army’s recent victory in Khartoum.

Egypt President Abdul Fatah al -Sisi supports Burhan and wants him to remove Islamists, but knows he cannot push the Sudanese general too far.

This issue gains additional importance with Israel’s attack on Iran and the fear of Islamists that they face irreversible defeat.

The other big question is whether the UAE will withdraw from Hemedi’s support.

After RSF lost Khartoum, some hoped Abu Dhabi could seek a compromise – but within weeks, RSF unfolded drones that seemed to have come from the UAE.

The UAE also faces strategic challenges as it is appearance in the Arab world in accordance with Israel.

No one wants to see Sudan split. But the reality of the war points to the actual share between bitterly opposing warfare.

Meanwhile, the largest and most deep humanitarian emergency in the world worsens without an end.

More than half of Sudan’s 45 million people have been displaced. Almost a million are starving.

Both sides continue to restrict agencies’ access to the assistance to the fasting. The UN appeal for $ 4.2 billion (3 billion British pounds) for major aid was only 13.3%funded in late May.

Globally and among the Arab world of power intermediaries, Sudan is a priority for no orphan in a region that is Plamen.

This is a country where multilateral organizations – the United Nations and the African Union – can still be relevant.

They can remind all their commitments to human rights and human life and that in the interest of anyone is not interested in unfolding.

The long -suffering Sudanese people certainly deserve this quantum mercy.

Alex de Vaal is the CEO of the World Foundation for Peace at the Law and Diplomacy School at Tufts University in the United States.