32 nations but only one person matters

NATO top meetings tend to be “pre -cooked”, not least to present a United Front.

Secretary -General Mark Rute has already settled in the Hague meeting menu: the one who will avoid order with the most powerful NATO member – the United States.

A commitment to increasing defense costs by European allies is the dish that President Donald Trump wants to serve – and that’s exactly what he will get. Although the added ingredients of compromise and fudi will inevitably be.

Neither the summit will be able to qualify for the cracks between Trump and many of its European allies for trade, Russia and the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

The US president, whose mantra is America, is not a big fan of multinational organizations.

He was also extremely critical of NATO – he even questioned his very basis for collective defense. In Trump’s first term, at his first NATO summit, he imposed European allies for not spending enough and owing to the United States “huge sums of money.”

In this message, he was at least consistent.

Mark Ruth, who has a good relationship with the US president, works hard to win him.

The summit is held at the Hague World Forum for two days, on Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

Now the main discussions will last only three hours and the top statement has been reduced to five paragraphs, according to the reports of the US president.

Trump is one of the 32 Western Defense Union leaders who come, along with the leaders of more than a dozen partner countries.

The Dutch police have installed its largest security operation for the most expensive NATO summit so far, priced at € 183.4 million ($ 155 million; $ 210 million).

Some suggest that the brevity of the summit is partly to take care of the attention of the President of the United States and the dislike of long meetings. But a short meeting at the top with less discussed subjects will help to hide the divisions.

Ed Arnold of the Brain Trust of Defense Rusi says Trump likes to be the star of the show and predicts that he will be able to claim that it is forced to act.

As a matter of fact, he is not the first US president to criticize allies’ defense costs. But he has more success than most. Kurt Volker, a former US ambassador to NATO, admits that some European governments do not like the way Trump has done it – requiring allies to spend 5% of their GDP on defense.

Europe still represents only 30% of NATO’s total military spending. Volker says many Europeans now admit that “we have to do this, even if it is a pity that he has taken such a kick in his pants.”

Some European nations are already increasing their defense costs to 5% of GDP. Most are countries living next to Russia – such as Poland, Estonia and Lithuania.

Not only is Trump one who accumulates from pressure. The invasion of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine is forcing an answer.

But in fact, many NATO members will struggle to achieve the new goal. Several have not achieved the goal of 2%set more than a decade ago.

The compromise formula of Rutte is for the Allies to increase their basic defense costs to 3.5% of GDP, with an additional 1.5% to protection costs.

But the definition of defense -related costs seems so unclear that it can be pointless. Ruth says it can include the cost of infrastructure industry – the construction of bridges, roads and railways. Ed Arnold of Rusi says he will inevitably lead to more “creative accounting”.

Even if, as expected, the new cost target is approved, some nations may have little intention to reach it – by 2032 or 2035, the time is still unclear. Spain’s Prime Minister has already called it unreasonable and counterproductive. Sir Kiir Starmer even failed to say when the United Kingdom would spend 3% of his GDP on defense. The United Kingdom Prime Minister said it was an ambition for some time in the next parliament. However, given the stated policy of the United Kingdom Government to put NATO at the heart of the UK defense policy, Sir Keyer will have to support the new plan.

The real danger is to interpret the search for an increase in defense costs as an arbitrary, symbolic gesture – or simply to worship the pressure of the United States. He is also guided by NATO’s own defensive plans for how he will respond to Russia’s attack. Ruth himself said Russia could attack NATO’s country within five years.

These defense plans remain secrets. But Ruth has already exposed what the Union is missing. In speech earlier this month, he said NATO needs a 400% increase in its air and missile protection: thousands of more armored vehicles and tanks and millions of more artillery shells.

Most Member States, including the UK, are still failing to fulfill their NATO commitments. Therefore, Sweden plans to double the size of its army and Germany seeks to increase its troops by 60,000.

Plans go into detail details of how the Union will protect its eastern flank if Russia invades. In a recent speech, the head of the US Army in Europe, General Christopher Donahu, emphasized the need to protect the Polish and Lithuanian territory near the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. He said the Union had considered its existing capabilities and “realized very quickly that they are not enough.”

Yet, strangely, specific discussions about Russia and the war in Ukraine will be muted. This is the only big problem that now divides Europe and America. Kurt Volker says the United States “does not see Ukrainian security as essential for European security, but our European allies.”

Trump has already broken the united NATO front by talking to Putin and holding on to military support to Ukraine.

Ed Arnold says that the controversial problems were deprived of the summit. Last but not least, to avoid scholars with Trump. Leaders had to discuss a new strategy for Russia, but this is not on the agenda.

Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski has been invited to dinner at the top, but he will not participate in the main discussions of the North Atlantic Council.

Ruth will hope that his first summit meeting as Secretary -General will be short and sweet. But Trump contradicts most of his allies for Russia, the biggest threat that the Union is facing, there is no guarantee that it will go according to plan.