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“Politics does not remove the tail – shakes the whole dog.”
These strong words from a wealth manager to CNBC last week captured the first half of trade. They also set the scene for the uncertain second half, where the “geo -economics” seems to remain dominant market force.
This week, expect the attention to return to monetary policy as central bankers from around the world – who kept their heads down against the background of political tensions – are preparing to speak at the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal.
Halftime report
Much has happened in the last six months, and Higharies have happened and the accumulation of stock markets around the world has been.
VIX Volatility Index – Also known as the Gauge Fear Gauge – covered in April as tariff threats, followed by tariff breaks, caused huge changes during the day in the main indices. Meanwhile, the moments of Black Swan in the Middle East also kept investors on the edge.
DAX vs S&P 500
Against the backdrop of all uncertainty, some stock markets have shown remarkable sustainability: the German DAX remains the superior in Europe, over 18% so far, followed by London FTSE 100 to 9%, while the French CAC 40 lags with about 5% profits.
But what does all this mean for trading in the second half of the year? Goldman Sachs warns that “increased political uncertainty, combined with a worsening macro background, is likely to maintain more instability of equity in the coming months.”
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The central banks occupy the central place in Sintra
As Goldman’s warning rings strongly in the investors’ ears, the scene is placed to return the spotlight to the spotlight.
This week, the city of Sintra in Portugal plays the host of the ECB Annual Forum, where European central bankers are joining their international counterparts for the exchange of views on current political issues.
The sun can shine in Portugal – but of President Donald Trump Last comments Undoubtedly, he will cast a shadow on the meeting, as he continues to put unprecedented pressure on the chairman of the federal reserve Jerome Powell.
Just last week, the call of Trump’s Powell name, shaking about the so -called “Shadow chair“Who could follow things until he took as a chair next year.
Powell also puts pressure on his money policy peers, urging central bankers to behave steadily until they see the impact of trade tariffs: “We are good to wait and learn more about the probable course of the economy before looking at any adjustments to our policy.”
Europe will have to decide how much US approach to dictate its policy, such as ECB President Christine Lagarde in Sintra with a speech on Monday night.
Expect a shock tone; Her recent Op-E in Financial Times I saw my call for the euro to take advantage of the current environment and “win global fame”.
The first year of the power of labor
The next Friday marks the first anniversary of the Labor Party to take power in the UK after 14 years of conservative government. Landslide I saw a cheerful work back to Downing Street with the promise of change and growth. But the honeymoon period was short -lived.
Fast ahead of 12 months and Prime Minister Kayer Starmer seems ready to reach his first year of service with Filling approval estimates Which put him under his rival party leaders, including Nigel Farage, Liberal Democrat Sir Davie and Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch.
Starmer has encountered a lot of external pressure ranging from a Public spitting with Elon Musk to many foreign policy challenges in Ukraine and the Middle East. Even three trade deals – with Europe, India and the first US agreement – did not do a little to improve its popularity. But the economic challenges at home cause the most insanity, with pressure even from their own party to review certain reforms.
