The political feud behind the match

Cambodia and Thailand have a history of casual conflict.

The two countries share a long and wooded border with areas for which both sides claim. In the past, there was also a serious fire exchange – in 2008 and 2011, 40 people killed clashes on a similar scale.

However, they were desets relatively quickly.

Even recently in May, after an incident that killed a Cambodian soldier, both sides seemed to prevent more violence, such as meetings between army commanders from each country aimed at relieving tensions.

But on Thursday it broke out. Thai authorities said at least 14 people, all civilians, except one, have been killed so far as the fighting has continued on Friday.

Cambodia has not yet confirmed whether she has suffered victims.

So why did this particular borderline fight – which started after five Thai soldiers were injured in a mines explosion on Wednesday – spread into something so much more?

Relationships between the two countries sharply worsened last month when senior Cambodia Hun Saint -Disturbation Deep Due to Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra by missing a telephone conversation between them about the disputed border.

In the conversation, Paetongtarn called it “Uncle” and criticized one of his own military commanders, provoking public anger. Since then, she has been suspended as Prime Minister, and the Thailand Constitutional Court has been considering a petition for his dismissal.

It is not clear why Hun Saint chose to do this by burning close personal relationships between their two families, who go back for decades.

Many people have damaged Paetongtarn to talk to Hun Saint. She seems to believe that she can resolve their differences by appealing to his friendship with her father, former Prime Minister Taxin Shinawatra.

In the past, friendship was used by Thaksin’s opponents to load it by putting Cambodia’s interests over Thailand.

In 2014, when a government headed by Taksin Ingluk’s sister was overthrown by a military coup, Hun Saint allowed dozens of his supporters to seek a sanctuary in Cambodia.

The two countries have also cooperated in more shady areas.

Last November, Thailand sent six Cambodian dissident, along with a young child, back in Cambodia, where they were immediately closed. They were all recognized by the United Nations as refugees.

In 2020, a young Thai activist who escaped to Cambodia, Wanchalerm Satsaksit, was abducted and disappeared, he was suggested by Thai operatives.

And the January shooting of the Cambodic opposition leader of daylight in Central Bangkok was also considered by activists as a result of this understanding between the security services of the two countries.

Against this background, it seems that the expiration of Paetongtarn conversation has caught the Shinatar family completely out of security.

The answers from both Thaksin and Paetongtarn reveal a sense of betrayal. This led to an increasingly warming war of words between the two countries.

But it’s more than just words.

Thai police have also begun to investigate powerful business figures in Cambodia, which are said to be linked to the gambling centers and fraud of the underworld, while billions of dollars per year has stopped.

At the border, there is an increased risk of more serious clashes between the two armies.

But instead of back away, it seems that Cambodia has jumped in the opportunity to invade rhetoric against Thailand, and more specially, the Shinawara family.

He claims that he has secret documents that would incriminate taxin – documents that he claims to even prove that he has offended the monarchy, a crime that comes with a huge sentence in Thailand.

The Thai government responded by expelling the Cambodian ambassador on Wednesday and recalling his own envoy, staging the scene for the last confrontation.

So far, none of the sides seems like a desire to retreat back. In both countries, there is no leadership with the power and confidence to compromise.

In Prime Minister Hong Manet Cambodia, he has an inexperienced son of a former strong man who still does not have his own power, while in his father Hun Saint, who seems ready to press this conflict further to burn his own nationalist credentials.

On the part of the Thai, the trembling government of the coalition, focused on the taxi party, is involved in a stagnant economy and tries to the threat of US penalties. He cannot afford to be weak in straightening Cambodia.

Cambodia is also involved in struggling economy.

He has never completely recovered from the pandemic and tourism – a pillar of his economy – suffers from the absence of Chinese visitors who stand far from fear of being abducted and forced to work in fraud centers.

And – as with Thailand – now there is a threat of punishment of US tariffs that further influence the economy.

But both sides have survived politicians in Hun Saint and Thaksin, who can almost certainly, when they are both ready, find a way out of it.

We will also need to see if other ASEAN members weigh this conflict and try to persuade both sides to desets.

This was initially the main goal of ASEAN – to avoid conflict between its members – and this will be a priority for some of the ASEAN countries to help these two countries resolve the conflict.

What remains a mystery at this point is why Hun Saint decided to burn this friendship and ignite this conflict.

It may have been Thailand’s decision to put pressure on the fraud centers this year or the ambition of Takin to legalize gambling, threatening the Cambodia’s own revenue casino industry.

Or maybe it was something more simply: Machiavelli’s move of one of the most popular political survivors in Asia to abandon an ally in Thaksin, who has lost much of his influence in Thailand while burning his nationalist powers in the eyes of his own people.