Feds Crack Down on Luigi Mangione Bets on Gambling Sites

You can’t legally put money on Luigi Mangione’s fortune in the US. Kalshi, one of the only legal prediction markets, pulled all bets on the UnitedHealthcare killer in mid-December, citing problems with federal regulators.

From sports betting to counter-strike skins, gambling in America is having a “moment.” Gamblers who want to bet on something other than the outcome of a football game are using prediction markets, sites where they can bet on the outcome of events with binary outcomes. Sites like Polymarket, PredicIt, and Kalshi Exploded in popularity For the past year.

Popular betting sites with news trends. In the last few months of the election, gamblers have placed huge bets on Trump, Orange and the future of liberal Western democracies. After Luigi Mangione shot and killed UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson on the streets of Manhattan, his fate became the subject of fascination with the prediction market.

Unless those markets are scrutinized by US regulators. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversees prediction markets such as Kalshi and Predictit. On December 13, all betting sites related to Magion disappeared from the site. According to BloombergKalshi removed Mangione-related wagers from its sites after receiving “…notification from regulators.” The outlet wrote that the CFTC “bans futures trading linked to crimes including murder, terrorism and war if the agency decides the so-called event contracts are against the public interest.”

All Assassin-related bets are on at Polymarket “Will Luigi Mangione fire his lawyer before 2025?” Polymarket has differences Only 1 percent. “Is it certain that Luigi Mangione used psychedelics?” Users Give it a 43 percent chance. “Luigi Mangione inspired by denied claims?” December 10, Polymarket had a 75 percent chance, but it has come down to about 25 percent.

None of the Mangione-related bets are high volume. Over $400,000, “Is the Luigi Mangione YouTube Channel Real?” Carry the most volume. But the viral YouTube channel was long before that Debunked as fake. Questions about his motivation are $183k, but every other market has failed to get above $100k. Prediction markets take a percentage of the bets, and it’s likely that Kulshi and Predictity aren’t missing out on a lot of cash by losing assailant-related bets.

At Polymarket, big political questions and sports betting are moving a lot of cash. Such is the fate of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol The price is $1 millionGerman parliament elections are underway The price is $4 millionAnd Sam Bankman-Fried’s possible Biden pardon is worth it About $3 million. People spent in Kalshi About $7 million Predicting which songs will top the USA pop charts on Spotify. Mangione is not just a hot market.

The CFTC’s move to remove Mangione-related bets from Kalshi is the latest in an ongoing fight against prediction sites. Websites like Kalshi and PredictIt have tried several times to restrict what bets people can place. Earlier this year, it Tried to stop Sites from allowing people to bet on official events like elections, sports and the Oscars. But the US Court of Appeals The verdict is overturned In October, just in time for the election.

Bets flow freely in polymarkets, but leadership does not go well with regulators. In November, the F.B.I raided NYC apartments Shane Coplan, CEO of Polymarket.