Why Trump-Putin talks unlikely to put a quick end to the war in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine, caused by Russia’s full -scale invasion in February 2022, shows no signs of retreat.

In the eastern part of Ukraine, Russia presses in grinding and bloody advance. Deadly air strikes are a night event throughout the country, while Russia’s refinery and energy facilities fall under a regular attack by Kiev’s drones.

Against this background, the Kremlin confirmed a meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin was planned and should be held soon. “I’m here to get (the war) with,” said the US leader on Wednesday.

Three rounds of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, at his request, between May and July, failed to bring the two sides closer to Mira and Trump can hope to take the situation in his own hands can finally lead to the cessation of fire.

But the gap between Kiev and Moscow is so great that even the Trump mediated negotiations could make it difficult for the bridge.

In a memorandum presented to Ukrainians from Russia in June, Moscow outlined its maximalist demands for the “final settlement” of the conflict. These include the recognition of Russian sovereignty over the Ukrainian regions of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Proace and Herson, as well as Ukraine, agreeing to demilitarianization, neutrality, without foreign military participation and new elections.

“The Russian side can frame this by a dozen different ways, giving the impression that Moscow is open to discounts and serious negotiations,” writes Russian political analyst Tatiana Stanovia. “But the main position remains unchanged: Russia wants Kyiv to surrender.”

Following a meeting between Putin and US envoy Steve Vikof, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday that Washington has a better understanding of the conditions under which Russia will be ready to end the war.

We do not know if these conditions have changed. However, only last week Putin – probably referred to the memorandum – said Russia had made its goals in June and that these goals remained the same.

Therefore, although the Kremlin agreed to a Trump-Putin meeting, there is no reason to believe that Moscow is ready to move for its difficult prerequisites.

So why would Putin agree to speak at this stage?

One possibility is that it hopes to get involved in dialogue, can repel Secondary sanctions Trump has threatened to impose Moscow commercial partners Immediately after Friday. The Kremlin may also feel that Trump can convince Trump the merits of his conditions to end the war.

At the beginning of his second term, Trump seemed to be more adopted with Russia than Ukraine, labeling Zelenski “dictator” and suggests that he was guilty of war with Russia.

Although he has been signaling his impatience to Putin since then – “He just eavesdrop on me,” he said in April – Trump also refused to say if he thinks the Russian leader is lying to him because of his willingness to move to the fire.

Whether because of a personal affinity or a leveled outlook, Trump is not inclined to fully condemn Putin for his actions.

When the two met in Helsinki in 2018 – during Trump’s first term as president – many were Left stunned to see Trump Country with the Kremlin over accusations of Russian intervention in the US election in 2016. And they take responsibility for the tense state of US-Russia relations.

It may be partly to give up the possibility of Trump being swinging from Putin that Kiev wants to participate in any negotiations to end the fire.

Through his envoy, Steve Vikof Trump also suggested that he be held tripartite with Putin and Zelenski. But the Russian president gave up these proposals, stating that the meeting conditions were still far away.

Now some of Ukraine is concerned that a Trump-Putin meeting may lead to the fact that the US president has surrendered to Putin’s demands.

Ukrainian MP Irina Herashchenko said it became obvious that demands for territorial discounts from Ukraine would be made and added that they were missing from the negotiating table, would be “very dangerous” for Kiev.

“Ukraine is not afraid of meetings and expects the same bold approach from the Russian side,” Zelenski said on Thursday.

But the bay between Russia and Ukraine remains.

And if the Kremlin eventually agreed to a tripartite meeting, Moscow’s demands for the cessation of fire turned out to be so insoluble that it is not clear what a Zelenski and Putin face to face can achieve.