Xi plans to avenge Trump’s gamesmanship.

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The writer is a professor at Georgetown University and senior advisor to the Asia Group. In the year He served on the staff of the US National Security Council from 2009-2015.

Donald Trump’s China policy is defined by Uncertainty and contradictionXi Jinping’s strategy is defined clearly and decisively. The Chinese president’s dealings with the US president-elect are no secret. Beijing has been clear about its views and responses since the election.

Xi plans to not only respond, but to take advantage of Trump’s move. During Trump’s first term, Beijing scrambled to respond. It was decided not to repeat. Xi performed well and made such a mark.

Most Chinese analysts were not surprised by Trump’s election, linking their return to a global wave of populism and nationalism. Beijing now understands Trump’s gamesmanship and believes it will use his administration. China’s self-confidence is based on the conclusion that China in 2025 will be different from 2017, and so will America and the rest of the world – rightly so or not.

Many Chinese argue that Xi is politically strong and that the economy is self-reliant, even in the face of recent challenges. Chinese analysts see the US economy as weaker and US politics more divided. Geopolitically, Beijing recognizes that US influence is waning across the global South and Asia and support for China’s vision is growing.

Xi has hinted that he views his relationship with Trump as purely business, despite his Don Corleone style. He personally dislikes Trump and will retaliate early and hard to create momentum. Beijing declined Trump’s invitation to Xi to attend the inauguration.

But Beijing is also signaling it wants talks and a deal to avoid new tariffs. However, the Chinese who prefer to use back channels are struggling to find the right one to understand what Trump “really” wants. Beijing’s underlying assumption is that Washington and its allies will remain hostile to China for the foreseeable future. So Xi is open to negotiations because he wants some breathing space on the economic front so China can train its forces for long-term competition.

Beijing remains concerned that the Trump administration’s focus on deep economic loosening, regime change in China and support for Taiwan independence, efforts to control and destabilize China. So Xi’s four “red lines” In a meeting with President Joe Biden in November A clear message to the next administration in Peru.

Beijing’s planned responses to Trump fall into three baskets: retaliation, adaptation, and differentiation. Mirroring US policies, Beijing has in recent years instituted a range of export controls, investment restrictions and regulatory investigations that could harm US companies. Beijing can’t match the tariffs, so it wants to pay the costs in more painful ways. For China, not retaliating shows weakness at home and only emboldens Trump.

This has already started. In the year By the end of 2024, Beijing has blocked shipments of vital chip-making minerals to the US, clamped down on the supply chain for US-made drones, threatened to blacklist a high-profile US apparel company and launched an antitrust investigation into Nvidia. By taking such steps, Beijing is foresight and creating future bargaining chips.

The second Chinese strategy is adaptation. Starting in fall 2023, Beijing has launched a strong fiscal and monetary stimulus to help businesses and now consumers. This policy change is having some positive, albeit uneven, effects. Of course, it was very important, but the scope and nature of the possible trade war was taken into account.

Beijing’s third strategy involves expanding its economic ties. It is negotiating unilateral tariff reductions on imports from non-US partners. During his visit to Peru, he inaugurated a deep-water port that would link China’s trade with Latin America. In the year In late 2024, Xi participated in the first meeting with the heads of 10 major international economic organizations. The message was clear: China will be a leading force for global economic stability, prosperity and transparency, and opposes all forms of protectionism.

A lot can go wrong. Beijing’s faith is similar to that of Trump’s team. Both sides believe they are superior, they can add more costs and endure more pain. The stage is set for a complex, unsettling dynamic that results in a standoff at best. And this is only about economic issues, not about Taiwan, the South China Sea, technological competition or nuclear modernization. The Cold War begins to appear in comparison.