Overvoltage in Ukrainian petroleum refinery sparks Russian shortage of fuel

Ukraine has drastically increased the number of attacks started against Russian oil refineries in recent months, causing a shortage of fuel and raising prices in some parts of the country, BBC Cretify and BBC Russian have established.

Dron shy on refinery – some deep in Russia – jumped in August and remained tall in September, an analysis of Russian media reports and checked footage showed.

About 21 of the 38 major refineries in the country – where raw oil is transformed into useful fuel such as gasoline and diesel – have been affected since January, with successful attacks already 48% higher than 2024.

Ordinary Russians seem to feel the impact of the impact, with the videos showed showing long queues at gas stations. Some garages have stopped operations to “wait for the crisis” rather than work on loss, a manager told the Russian media.

The Security Service of Ukraine, SBU, did not respond to a request for comment. But President Volodimir Zelenski said damage to the Russian oil industry is a key means of forcing Russia to negotiating a table.

“The most effective sanctions – those who work fastest – are the fires in Russian oil refineries, its terminals, oil depots,” said the Ukrainian leader at the September address. “We have significantly restricted Russia’s oil industry and this significantly limits war.”

Our analysis shows that it reports that the attacks reached a record level in August, with 14 refineries aimed at Ukrainian drones and eight in September. The increase came after a brief lull, coinciding with a storm of diplomacy, during which President Donald Trump tried to overcome a deal to end the fire between Kiev and Moscow.

Some of the strikes were fired against facilities deep in Russia. At the end of September, SBU successfully hit the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat oil refinery in the Bashkortostan region twice.

Satellite images show that smoke is curved from the facility – which is more than 1100 km (683 miles) from the Ukrainian border – after the attack.

Kyiv also attacks some of the most diligent facilities in Russia. Rafinery near Volgograd was directed six times this year – with an attack in August, forcing him to stop the operations for one month. The large Ryazan plant near Moscow – capable of producing 340,000 barrels a day – has been hit five times since January.

Ukrainian strikes seem to pursue two goals -large refineries, essential for civil deliveries and those that are more close to the border used to supply troops in Ukraine, Vladimir Milov, a former deputy minister of energy at Vladimir Putin and now a profitable opposition politician, BBC said.

The General Staff of Ukraine has previously claimed that the refineries in Samara and Saratov were used as part of military logistics operations. Both regions have been affected by drones in recent weeks, with two of the three plants in the Samara region being offline.

Justin Crump, a former British army officer and CEO of Risk Consultancy Sibylline, told the BBC to check that Ukraine has long been heading for Russia’s oil and gas industry. But he noted that strike noise shows that the military and security services have already settled in tactics as a “main campaign”.

“This campaign was obviously at the center of a significant investment and is guided by an assessment of intelligence of what will most harm Russia,” said G -N Crump.

It is difficult to measure the extent to which strikes influence the production of gasoline and diesel, as Russia classifies statistics related to gasoline production in May 2024 against the background of a more row of attacks against refineries.

However, the BBC Cerify analysis found that at least 10 oil refineries were forced to discontinue fully or partially operations from August, and the Reuters news agency reported that on certain days the national production of national production has decreased by fifthS

There is some evidence that refinery strikes affect civil life in parts of Russia. Videos, confirmed by the BBC, check long queues at the Far East gas stations and the highway between St. Petersburg and Moscow, while installations installed by the Kremlin have introduced gasoline in occupied Crimea.

Owners of small and independent gas stations in Siberia have told the Russian media that they should be closed due to continued fuel delivery problems. A manager in the Novosibirsk region compares the situation with hyperinflation experienced by post -Soviet Russia.

“In my opinion, we did not have a similar crisis from 1993-1994,” he told the local Variant TV. “Many gas stations have now stopped their operations. It may be better to wait for the crisis than to lose.”

While Russia has traditionally observed an increase in prices encouraged by summer trips and maintenance of oil refinery, drone strikes exacerbate it.

Retail gas prices have increased, while the wholesale prices – the price at which retailers buy from manufacturers – have increased even faster, increasing by 40% since January.

Step -controlled home media have hinted that drone strikes are a key factor in shortage, with the daily business newspaper KOMMERSANT attributing a shortage to “unfulfilled refinery stop”.

But civilians in Western Russia – including the regions of Moscow and Krasnodar – seem to be largely affected. Some of those who talked to the BBC said they did not know about the shortage elsewhere in the country.

Russian employees insisted that the situation remains under control. During a press briefing this week, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that “the government is taking the necessary measures” to deal with shortages.

But Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced last week that a partial ban on gasoline exports had been expanded by the end of 2025. Opposition politician, Milov, noted that stopping exports was relatively small and “will not save the internal market.”

The extent to which strikes influence Moscow’s ability to use oil revenue to finance his war in Ukraine is also unclear.

The greater part of oil exports to Russia are in the form of unrefined raw oil that seems to have not been affected by the impact. An analysis performed by Bloomberg at the end of September showed that the exports of raw oil – albeit less profitable than gasoline and diesel – reached a record high.

Crump noted that the impact of strikes could be increased if “more incurred measures” and sanctions aimed at oil exports were adopted by the West, but stressed that the attacks were undermined by Moscow’s ability to wage the war.

“This campaign alone will not bring Russia to the knees, but it definitely increases the pain of prolonged conflict.”

Additional reporting by Christine Javans.