Explanation: What options does Prime Minister Trudeau face in Canada’s leadership crisis? By Reuters

by David Ljunggren

OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has yet to make a final decision but is increasingly likely to announce his intention to resign, a source familiar with Trudeau’s thinking said.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has been pushing for Trudeau’s resignation after she resigned over a policy rift.

Trudeau’s departure leaves the party without a permanent leader at a time when polls show the Liberals will lose to the official opposition Conservatives in elections due at the end of October.

Here are some possible routes to Canada

What happens if Trudeau resigns?

If Trudeau steps down, the Liberals will name an interim leader to take over as prime minister while the party holds a special leadership convention. The party’s challenge is that these conventions take months to prepare and if an election is held before then, the Liberals will be in the hands of a prime minister not elected by members. This has never happened in Canada. Liberals may try to hold a shorter-than-usual convention, but that could draw opposition from candidates who feel it puts them at a disadvantage.

There is no way Freeland can be named permanent prime minister quickly, as tradition dictates that an interim leader does not run as a candidate to lead the party.

Can Trudeau be forced out by the Liberal Party?

As in Britain, party leaders are elected by parliamentary caucuses and can be quickly removed, the Liberal leader is elected by a special convention of members. Therefore, there is no formal party procedure to remove Trudeau from office.

That said, if his own cabinet members and a large number of lawmakers ask him to go, he can conclude that his position is untenable.

Is it possible to remove patience in parliament?

Canadian governments must demonstrate confidence in a council elected by the House of Commons. Votes on the budget and other expenses are considered confidence measures and if a government loses, it falls. In all cases election campaign will start immediately.

The House of Representatives adjourned for winter recess in December and will not resume until January 27. The government can use procedural methods to avoid going down on the spending bill, but whenever possible, it should allocate a few days to opposition parties for each session. Disclosing activities on any matter, including bankruptcy.

Assuming the government schedules protest days at the end of the session, the most likely time for Trudeau to step down is in the last 10 days of March. This will trigger an election sometime in May.

Is there another way to force TRUDEAU?

The ultimate constitutional authority in Canada rests with Governor General Mary Simon, the personal representative of King Charles, the head of state. In theory she could get rid of Trudeau, but in real life that’s not going to happen. Philippe Lagasse, a professor at Carleton University in Ottawa and a constitutional expert, said: “The prime minister will still not fire a prime minister who has the confidence of the Commons.”

What else can Trudeau do to prevent impeachment?

Trudeau could dissolve parliament, which would formally end the current session and give him some breathing space. In this case, the return of the council will be delayed for several weeks, which will allow the government to come up with a new plan on how to run the country. That would have the benefit of delaying any no-confidence motion, but could further anger Liberal lawmakers, especially if Trudeau becomes prime minister.