Will Israel and Hamas take advantage of the war and Hamas for two years?

After two years of war, there is a chance for a deal that will end the murder and destruction in Gaza and return the Israeli hostages, living and dead, to their families.

This is an opportunity, but it is not certain that it will be seized by Hamas and Israel.

It is gloomy coincidence that the conversations happen for exactly two years after Hamas traumated the Israelis, which is still acute.

The attacks on October 7 were killed about 1,200 people, mainly Israeli civilians, and 251 were taken hostage. The Israelis estimate that 20 hostages are still alive and want the return of the bodies to 28 others.

Israel’s devastating military reaction destroyed the greater part of the gas and killed over 66,000 Palestinians, mainly civilians and including more than 18,000 children.

The numbers come from the Ministry of Health, which is part of the remains of the Hamas administration. His statistics are usually considered reliable. A study at Lancet, The Medical Journal, based in London, suggested they were underestimated.

The Israelis and the Palestinians want the war to end. The Israelis were worn out of the war, and polls show that the majority wants a deal that returns the hostages and ends the war. Hundreds of thousands of reservists in the armed forces, IDF, want to return to their lives after many months in uniform in active service.

More than two million Palestinians in Gaza are in a humanitarian disaster caught between the firing power of IDF and the hunger, and in some areas, a person created by a person created by Israel’s restrictions for help entering the tape.

Hamas’s version, which managed to attack Israel with devastating power two years ago, has long been violated as a coherent military organization. It has become an urban guerrilla force, installing an uprising against IDF in the ruins.

Hamas wants to find a way to survive, although he has agreed to give up the power of the Palestinian technocrats. He accepts that he will have to transmit or dismantle what is left of his heavy weapons, but wants to maintain enough fire power to defend himself against Palestinians who want to take revenge for nearly two decades of brutal government and the crash that Hamas attacks, removed on them.

This is not so publicly said, but an organization that still has followers and a charter, which seeks to destroy Israel, will also want to appear with enough left to restore its ability to live to its name, which is an abbreviation for the Islamic resistance movement.

Israel would like to dictate Hamas’s transmission conditions. But the fact that Hamas has a chance for serious negotiations opens more opportunities for him than it probably just seems a month ago. Then Israel tried and failed to kill Hamas’s leadership in a series of strikes on a Doha building, where they were discussing peace proposals by Donald Trump. Their main goal, senior leader Khalil Al-Haya, is the leading Hamas delegation when talking at the Red Sea resort of Sharm El-Sheikh. Al-Haya’s son was among the dead, although the leaders fled with their lives.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a different type of survival. He wants to maintain his power, to continue to postpone his corruption process, to win elections next year, and not to go into history as a leader responsible for security errors that led to the most dead day for Jews after the Nazi Holocaust.

To achieve this, he needs a reliable way to announce a “total victory”, a phrase he used repeatedly. He described it as the return of the facilities, the destruction of Hamas and the demilitarization of the gas. If he cannot do this, it will not be enough for him to point out the real damage that Israel has inflicted on his enemies in Lebanon and Iran for the past two years.

Hamas and Israeli negotiators will not meet face to face. The Egyptian and Qatari officials will be the mediators, and the Americans, who will also be there, will have a great influence, perhaps decisive.

The basis for the conversations is the peace plan for the peace of Donald Trump on the 20-point. What he will not do, despite his persistent publications on social media about constant peace, is the ultimate conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians to control the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean. He does not mention the future of the west coast, the other part of the territories that the UK and others have recognized as a state of Palestine.

The bets are high in Sharm El-Sheikh. There is a chance to come to a cessation of fire, which can lead to the end of the most destructive and bloody war in more than a century of conflict between Arabs and Jews.

The first challenge is to develop conditions for the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinians, serving life sentences in Israeli prisons and Gazani, which have been detained without court since the beginning of the war. This is not an easy task.

President Trump wants results quickly. He wants to revive his ambition to mediate for a large deal in the Middle East, in the center of which would be a rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. This cannot happen when Israel kills a huge number of Palestinian civilians in gas and imposes restrictions on humanitarian aid that cause great suffering and when Hamas holds Israeli hostage. The Saudis have also become clear in a series of public statements that they also cannot happen without a clear and irreversible path to an independent Palestinian state.

Trump has forced Netanyahu to register in a document that includes a recognized and uncertain reference to the possibility of Palestinian independence. In a statement, Netanyahu then chose to ignore this by repeating his promise that the Palestinians will never receive a country. There is a lot in Trump’s document that Israel wants to terminate the power of Hamas and the future Gaza management.

But Netanyahu is used to making his own way in the Oval Cabinet. Instead, Trump forced him to read an official apology to the Prime Minister of Qatar for the air strike, which failed to erase Hamas’s management. Trump needs Qatar on board to move on with his ambitions to process the Middle East.

One question is why Hamas is ready to give up the hostages without a strict schedule for Israel to leave the gas and end the war. One of the possibilities is that the Cathars have convinced them that Trump will make sure that this is happening if they give him a chance to ask for victory by repatriating all Israeli hostages living and dead.

However, Trump still uses a language that Netanyahu needs Israelis to hear, as his threat to Hamas, if they reject the deal, promising “my full support” for Israel to continue to destroy Hamas.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said it would only take a few days to get if Hamas was serious. It will take longer to throw away the nuts and bolts that will have to be the basis of the complex agreement. So far, all they have is Trump’s frame.

Two years after the long and unresolved conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians, the Gaza war broke out, the main challenge is to end the murder and secure the immediate future for the Palestinians and the Israelis. He will take away skillful diplomacy and a lengthy commitment with details, of which there is a little in Trump’s 20 points. The attempt to find the exact language that will fill in the gaps will provide many potential obstacles.

No one has a higher opinion than Trump himself on his ability to make deals. In foreign policy, delivery so far does not match its praise. He did not arrange a set of wars; The exact number of how much he claims to be over, varies depending on how he says it. Most of the notorious Trump did not end the war in Russia-Ukraine within one day after entry into office, as he had foreseen. But a skill Trump has, after a lifetime of real estate, is an innate instinct for how to put pressure to get what he wants.

Indirect negotiations in Egypt are happening because Donald Trump has been able to put pressure on both sides. Hamas’s threat of extinction, if they refused to engage in his plan, was the easy part. The US presidents led international pressure on Hamas as the group won the 2006 Palestinian elections and used force to take a gas from its Palestinian rivals Fatah next year.

A big difference between Donald Trump and Presidents Clinton, Obama and Biden is that he hits more and more resourceful in Benjamin Netanyahu’s attempts to manipulate him than his democratic predecessors were willing or capable of doing.

Trump accepted the qualified “Yes, but” on his proposal as a solid “yes” for peace. It was enough for him to load forward. Axios’ news reported that when Netanyahu tried to convince him that Hamas was playing for time, Trump’s answer was “Why are you so negative.”

Israel depends on the United States. The United States was a full partner in the war. Without US help, Israel could not attack the gas with such a ruthless and prolonged force. Most of his weapons are supplied from the United States, which also provides political and diplomatic protection, necessitating the imposition of multiple resolutions on the UN Security Council that were intended to put pressure on Israel to stop.

Joe Biden, called Irish Zionist, has never used the lever that comes from Israel’s dependence on the United States. Donald Trump puts his plans for America first and uses America’s latent power over Israel to make Netanyahu bend to his will, at least when it comes to joining the conversations. It remains to be seen if this pressure continues. Trump changes his mind.

Both Hamas and Israel’s delegations have powerful critics at home who want the war to continue. Hamas sources told the BBC that military commanders are still in Gaza ready to fight him to the end and take as many Israeli as possible with them. Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition relies on the support of ultra -nationalist extremists who believe they are close to their dream of expelling the Palestinians of Gaza and replacing them with Jewish settlers.

If the conversations in Egypt fail, both end games become possible.