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A security crisis is emerging in Europe. In 2025, two dangerous substances can be combined. The growing threat from Russia and the indifference of Donald Trump’s America is increasing.
European countries must respond immediately to this alarming geopolitical alliance by building their own defenses. For this to happen, it is crucial for Germany, Europe’s largest economy, to finally do well with Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Promise A significant increase in defense spending.
Making a political case for increasing defense spending requires transparency about what is happening in both Russia and the United States.
Mark Ruth, who was recently appointed as the Secretary General of NATO warned “Russia’s economy is at war,” he said last month. . . The danger is moving towards us at full speed. He urged NATO to rapidly increase defense production and shift to a “wartime mindset.”
Last April, NATO Commander-in-Chief General Christopher Cavoli warned: “Russia shows no signs of stopping.” Russia does not intend to stop with Ukraine either. Western analysts argue that Russia is already engaged in a hybrid war with Europe – one that involves routine sabotage actions that risk mass casualties.
During the Cold War, when Russia called off military pressure in Europe, the US led the coalition’s response. But the American response promises to be very different this time. President-elect Trump’s key appointments include advisers who have been outspoken about his desire to deploy US military assets from Europe to Asia.
Elbridge Colby, the nominee for secretary of defense for policy; He wrote In last year’s FTA, China prioritized the US over Russia and argued that “the US should block the forces it needs for Asia from Europe, even if Russia attacks first.”
European defense analysts worry that the withdrawal of US forces from Europe will encourage Russian aggression. In the near future book, Keir Giles of Chatham House argued that “cutting US military support to NATO is a surefire way to turn the possibility of Russian aggression beyond Ukraine into an option.”
But for most of Europe, the Russian threat still seems distant. In Ukraine’s nearly three-year war, Moscow’s forces have made limited territorial gains and suffered staggering losses – now 700,000 soldiers have been killed or wounded.
But the amount of victims that Vladimir Putin is willing to absorb should also be a warning. Russia’s military will now be larger than it was at the beginning of the war in 2022. And, as Ruth recently pointed out, the country is producing “larger numbers of tanks, armored vehicles and ammunition.”
European countries do not have the manpower and equipment to engage in the kind of war of destruction that Russia is waging in Ukraine. At the beginning of last year, the British army numbered 73,520 – the fewest since 1792. The German army has 64,000.
NATO military planners think the alliance is about a third short of the space it needs to effectively defend Russia. There are particular shortages in air defense, logistics, ammunition and reliable communication equipment.
Alliance members are currently committed to spending 2 percent of GDP on defense. At the next NATO summit, they will raise that nominal target to 3 percent. But even that will only be enough if European countries agree to make purchases much less nationally.
The 3 percent target is based on the assumption that the US will largely maintain its commitment to NATO. If not, defense planners think European countries should increase defense spending to 4.5 percent of GDP. But even 3 percent seems very difficult. The problem stems from Rutte’s record as Prime Minister of the Netherlands from 2010 to 2024. His country had set a target of 2 percent during his previous tenure.
The closer you get to the Russian border, the more serious the Russian threat is. Poland in 2010 It plans to increase its defense spending to 4.7 percent of GDP by 2025. Large Western European economiesis a different story. Germany and France were hit only 2 percent last year; Britain was 2.3 percent.
France has a budget deficit of 6 percent of GDP and a public debt of more than 100 percent. The British government is also heavily indebted and struggling to raise revenue.
But Germany – with a debt-to-GDP ratio of more than 60 percent – has much more fiscal space for defense spending. It still has a large industrial and engineering base.
Perhaps Friedrich Merz of the Christian Democrats, who will be elected as German chancellor in this year’s election, takes the Russian threat seriously. It can lead to historic change. If Germany relaxes its constitutional provisions on deficit financing — and accepts the need for a common EU debt to protect the EU — it could transform the continent’s security landscape.
Even 80 years after the end of World War II, some of Germany’s neighbors – notably Poland and France – remain suspicious of Germany’s armaments. But, for their safety, they need to get past it.
