Could Putin’s Flying Kremlin travel through EU airspace to Budapest?

The summit is not set in stone, but if Russian President Vladimir Putin does go to Budapest to meet with US President Trump in the next two weeks, he will have to clear several hurdles first.

When Putin traveled to Alaska for his August summit in Anchorage, the US granted special permission for the president’s plane, a modified Ilyushin Il-96 passenger plane dubbed the “Flying Kremlin” that has four engines and is packed with defense systems.

Russian aircraft are prohibited from entering US airspace as well as EU airspace. So if Putin is flying to Budapest, he will need special permission if he decides to fly over an EU member state.

It’s entirely possible, but landlocked Hungary is not the easiest destination for a Russian president who rarely sets foot abroad and hasn’t traveled to the EU in years.

“For now, of course, it’s not clear,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. “What we have is the willingness of the presidents to hold such a meeting.

Days after Putin ordered a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the EU froze the assets of both its leader and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

A total ban was also imposed on all Russian aircraft flying through the airspace of all 27 EU countries. Hungary and many of its neighbors are also members of NATO.

Putin has also been charged by the International Criminal Court with war crimes for the illegal deportation and transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia.

So there are complications, although Hungary believes they can all be resolved. Hungary is in the process of withdrawing from the ICC anyway.

Putin and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, arguably his closest EU ally, have already discussed the planned summit by phone, and Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó told reporters that “of course, we will ensure that he can enter Hungary, hold successful negotiations here and then return home.”

The EU is also unlikely to create obstacles.

Its executive committee said any meeting that moves forward toward a “just and lasting peace for Ukraine” is welcome and supports President Trump’s efforts to do so.

One of the main drivers for the latest proposed sanctions against Russia – the 19th package so far – is to get the Russians to the negotiating table, it said. And it states that there is no travel ban on Putin, only an asset freeze.

The biggest obstacle is how the Russian leader will fly from Moscow to Budapest. Obviously, he’s not going to buy an Air Serbia ticket to Belgrade and catch the train to Hungary, which might be the most direct route.

He will want his Il-96 jet to ensure his safety, but that will likely mean using the airspace of an EU and NATO member state and getting permission to breach the EU ban on Russian aircraft.

European Commission spokeswoman Anitta Hipper said on Friday that “regarding the direction of travel, Member States can grant derogations, but they must be given by Member States individually”.

NATO has also taken the matter to the relevant national authorities, and since Trump is involved, they may agree.

Even with permission, a glance at the map suggests that Putin may have to take a detour. Ukraine is out of the question, and probably also Poland because of Warsaw’s icy relations with Moscow.

Perhaps the most direct route goes through the eastern coast of the Black Sea and Turkey, through Bulgaria and Serbia or Romania to Hungary.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic knows Putin well and Air Serbia has direct flights to Moscow over EU airspace. Serbia is a candidate for EU membership, but not a member.

EU countries, Bulgaria or perhaps Romania, would have to agree and would have to escort Putin’s plane through their airspace.

Romania has what is expected to become the largest NATO base in Europe, and Bulgaria is also building a NATO base as part of efforts to strengthen the defense alliance’s eastern flank.

The BBC has approached the foreign ministries of both countries for comment.

If Putin wants to play it even safer, he could fly through Turkey, around the southern coast of Greece and then up through Montenegrin airspace before passing over Serbia. But it’s a much longer route.

Budapest is not the easiest place then, even if it works very well for Viktor Orbán, who has long maintained good relations with both Putin and Donald Trump.

A high-profile international summit will do Orbán no harm at all, as he is trailing in the polls ahead of next spring’s election.

Hours after Budapest was named as the venue, Orbán phoned Putin and announced on his Facebook page: “Preparations are in full swing!”

Orban has little time for EU support for Ukraine and was quick to make it clear that Brussels would have nothing to do with the talks.

“Since the EU is for the war, it is logical that it should be left out of this peace process,” he told Hungarian radio on Friday.

European leaders will have other ideas when they see him at the summit in Brussels next week.