Israel’s “yellow line” in Gaza gives Netanyahu room to maneuver

Under Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan, the “yellow line” – which Israel withdrew from earlier this month – is the first of three stages of Israeli military withdrawal. This leaves it in control of about 53% of the Gaza Strip.

One Israeli newspaper, Yedioth Ahronoth, called it “effectively the new border” in Gaza.

It’s a remark that will please Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners.

The fortifications and demarcations that Israel is now building along that border are intended to clearly divide the territory, but they may also help blur the different hopes and expectations of Mr. Netanyahu’s allies in Washington and at home.

How long he can keep both sets of expectations in play depends largely on this next stage of the negotiations.

The border marked by the yellow line is temporary, but the further withdrawal of Israeli forces depends on solving the difficult issues related to the second stage of Donald Trump’s deal – including the transfer of power in Gaza and the process of disarming Hamas.

Washington wants nothing to upset this next delicate stage of the negotiations. US Vice President JD Vance flew in on Tuesday to urge Netanyahu to continue peace talks. Trump negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with the Israeli prime minister on Monday.

Israeli newspapers reported that Netanyahu was getting a stern message from his American allies to “show restraint” and not jeopardize the truce.

When Israel complained that Hamas violated the terms of Sunday’s ceasefire, killing two soldiers, the response championed by Mr. Netanyahu’s far-right national security minister was a one-word demand: “War.”

Instead, Israel carried out an intense but brief wave of airstrikes before restoring the ceasefire, and was careful to emphasize that its troops were attacked inside the yellow line – wanting to show Washington that Israel had not broken the rules.

Netanyahu has said the war will not end until Hamas is defeated – its disarmament and the complete demilitarization of Gaza are among the conditions he has set.

But Israeli commentators are lining up to say that the real decisions about Israel’s military action in Gaza are now being made in Washington.

The yellow line – and the difficult task facing negotiators in this second stage of the deal – are clues to why Netanyahu’s coalition partners have chosen to wait rather than follow through on a threat to topple his government.

The dream of many extremist settlers – and ministers – is that the next stage of this process will prove impossible to resolve and the yellow line will indeed become a de facto border, opening the way for new settlements in Gaza. Some hardliners would like Israel to annex the entire Gaza Strip.

The majority of Israelis want the war to end and the remaining bodies of the hostages and Israeli soldiers to return home.

But Israel’s prime minister is known as a politician who likes to keep his options as open as possible for as long as possible, and this is a deal in stages, with built-in caveats.

Agreeing to this first stage meant withdrawing positions that left Israel in control of more than half of Gaza and agreeing to a ceasefire to allow the hostages to return home.

Henceforth, it will become more difficult to align the goals of its American and domestic allies.

Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly stressed that Hamas’s breach of the deal – including its failure to disarm – would allow Israel to return to war.

“If this is achieved the easy way, so much the better,” he told the Israeli public earlier this month. “If not, it will be achieved the hard way.”

Donald Trump said the same thing. But Washington has so far shown tolerance for delays and violations in implementing the deal on the ground, leaving Netanyahu far less political space than he might like.