What’s at stake as the Trump-Petro feud strains the US-Colombia alliance

For decades, it was one of Washington’s closest allies.

United in their fight against drug trafficking, Colombia and the United States cooperate closely, with the former receiving hundreds of millions of dollars in US military aid annually.

But now that alliance seems more fragile than ever.

The leaders of the two countries may have a similar style – forceful and mincing their words – but leftist Gustavo Petro and Donald Trump come from opposite ends of the political spectrum and have clashed frequently since Trump returned to the White House in January.

On Sunday, tensions reached their highest point when Trump accused Petro of promoting drug production in Colombia and announced the suspension of payments and subsidies to the South American country.

It came after Petro in turn accused US officials of killing a Colombian national and violating his country’s sovereignty in one of several strikes the US military has carried out against suspected drug vessels in the Caribbean since early September.

BBC Mundo spoke to experts who warned that with the alliance in jeopardy, both Colombia and the US could be at risk of losing out, while organized crime groups look set to benefit.

Colombia became one of the main beneficiaries of US aid in the early 2000s, with money going to Plan Colombia, a US-funded initiative to combat drug trafficking groups, reduce the flow of drugs to the US and strengthen Colombian security forces.

That investment is credited with weakening the Farc guerrilla group, which was at war with the state before officially demobilizing in 2016.

Since then, U.S. aid has been cut — and questioned.

Despite Colombia’s military successes against armed groups and recent years of relative stability and security, some analysts question whether Plan Colombia has really solved the drug problem in the long term.

Cocaine production is currently at record highs in Colombia, according to researcher Héctor Galeano of the Colombia-based Institute for Advanced Social and Cultural Studies of Latin America and the Caribbean.

The level of cultivation of coca, the key ingredient in cocaine, is also at a record high, although the Colombian government says the pace of crop expansion is slowing from 2021.

The US military campaign in the Caribbean to combat drug trafficking paradoxically shows that drugs have not been eradicated in the region and remain a priority for Washington.

The strengthening of security forces under Plan Colombia also had side effects.

Paramilitary groups engaged in abuses against civilians, and some demobilized members of these groups later joined the drug-trafficking business.

Similarly, the large number of military personnel in the early 2000s created a large pool of young, retired soldiers, some of whom were accused of signing up as mercenaries to fight in foreign conflicts.

Despite funding cuts in previous years, US aid to Colombia will still exceed $400m (£300m) in 2024, according to estimates by the US-based research organization Washington Office on Latin America (Wola).

Elizabeth Dickinson, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, told BBC Mundo that Colombia remains “the US’s closest partner in the fight against drugs in all of Latin America”.

“It’s been almost three decades of American investment, training and an unprecedented level of coordination,” Ms. Dickinson said.

The alliance made Colombia and the US interdependent for security. Today, thanks in part to US aid, Colombia has one of the most powerful armies in Latin America.

Washington, in turn, relies heavily on Bogotá for its counter-narcotics operations, Ms. Dickinson explains.

“About 80% of the intelligence that the US uses to intercept drugs in the Caribbean comes from Colombia.

Military aid is not the only funding Colombia has received from the US in recent decades.

With the help of USAID – Washington’s foreign policy and aid agency – Colombia has launched several projects for peace and growth, especially in poor and conflict-ridden areas.

But earlier this year, the Trump administration announced the de facto dissolution of the agency.

Colombia, USAID’s largest beneficiary in the region, saw many of its initiatives canceled and dozens of jobs lost.

“The other sources of assistance come from the State Department in the form of civilian and defense funding,” Ms Dickinson explains.

She says the aid that exists today — which Trump appeared to mention in his cuts announcement — funds communications, intelligence and equipment capacity in Colombia, such as helicopters.

“But aside from these funding issues, the seizures, captures and high-value operations that Colombia carries out are often coordinated with the United States,” she continues.

“It’s not just the economic aid that’s lost, but the institutional relationship between the two countries fighting a common threat.”

In mid-September, the US for the first time in 30 years, officially named Colombia as a country it says has “clearly failed” to comply with its obligations to control drug trafficking – thereby opening the door to a reduction in funding.

At the time, however, Washington halted its attempts to reduce the flow of aid, leaving the move as a warning.

But just a month later, the cuts you feared seem to have materialized.

The latest rift between Trump and Petro comes at perhaps the most inconvenient time possible for both administrations.

Petro is fighting to bring “total peace” to Colombia, a campaign promise he made that this year appears to be failing with attacks by armed groups on the rise in regions such as Catatumbo, Cauca and Valle del Cauca, culminating in the assassination of presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay in Bogotá.

Meanwhile, Trump has waged a controversial campaign against drug traffickers, and since September US warships have attacked suspected drug boats, killing at least 37 people – 32 in strikes in the Caribbean and five more in the first such US attacks on two ships in the Pacific on Wednesday.

This campaign has mainly targeted vessels allegedly coming from Venezuela, whose President Nicolas Maduro Trump accuses of being the leader of the Sun Cartel drug gang.

Maduro strongly denied the accusation and said the strikes were aimed at ousting him from office.

The legality of the operations has also been questioned by legal experts who warn that they violate international law.

One of the most outspoken critics of the US strikes was President Petro, who called on the UN to launch a “criminal trial” against Trump for the strikes.

However, the two governments seem to need each other, although in light of recent tensions, they are also drifting apart from each other.

Mr Galeano says that given their opposing views and outspoken style, it was clear that relations between Petro and Trump “were going to explode at any moment, especially after the US bombing of the boats in the Caribbean”.

in September, Petro told BBC News that Trump’s attacks on boats were an “act of tyranny” and called for US officials to be tried for “murder”.

Last Saturday, he repeated a report published by state media RTVC that claimed a Colombian fisherman named Alejandro Carranza was killed in a US strike on a boat on September 16.

Hours later, Trump announced the aid freeze and warned that if Petro didn’t destroy Colombia’s drug industry, the US would do it for him “and it won’t be done well.”

According to the Colombian Foreign Ministry, this constituted a threat “to carry out an illegal intervention in Colombian territory”.

Ms Dickinson described the deterioration in US-Colombian relations and aid cuts as a “devastating blow” and warned that they were likely to “weaken the ability of security forces to control armed groups”.

She added that it was “difficult to understand” why the US would make such a decision at a time when tensions in the region are high due to US deployments in the Caribbean and Trump’s declaration of an “armed conflict” with drug trafficking groups.

“Why confront your closest ally when regional security is already at stake?” asks Mrs. Dickinson.

Mr. Galeano also believes that cracks in the once-strong U.S.-Colombian alliance pose risks for both countries.

“Colombia needs the US, and the US needs Colombia. There are military bases that the US uses in Colombia, with agreements signed even during Petro’s administration,” he explains.

“Criminal gangs win in all of this.

“While Trump is focusing on the Caribbean, traffickers are smuggling drugs across the Pacific Ocean from Ecuador and Colombia, which are reportedly the source of most of the drugs sent from South America,” the expert added.

Since Trump returned as US president in January, friction between his government and Petro’s government has hardly abated.

Within days, the two countries were close to a trade war after Petro turned back a flight carrying Colombian nationals deported from the US, condemning the conditions in which they were traveling.

A trade war was quickly averted after some frantic negotiations, but the crisis set the tone for things to come.

Read: Cooperate or else: Trump’s confrontation with Colombia is a warning to all leaders

When Colombian presidential candidate and opposition leader Miguel Uribe Turbay was gunned down in Bogotá in early June, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio linked his killing to “violent left-wing rhetoric coming from the highest levels of the Colombian government.”

Weeks later, both governments recalled their ambassadors for consultations, a move often interpreted in international affairs as pre-empting the severance of bilateral relations.

The envoys remained in place, but Washington has since dealt more severe blows to Petro’s government.

It not only formally stripped Colombia of its war on drugs partner, but revoked Petro’s visa after he led a pro-Palestinian protest in New York during his visit there for the UN General Assembly.

Following the suspension of US aid and amid the continued tense antagonism between Petro and Trump, many fear that relations could deteriorate further.