BBC correspondents on the winnings and potential losses

US President Donald Trump arrives in Asia for a whirlwind week of diplomacy that includes a long-awaited meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

High on the agenda between the two will be trade, an area where tensions between the world’s two largest economies are rising again.

Trump lands in the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, summit begins on Sunday. He will then visit Japan and finally South Korea, where the White House says he will meet with Xi.

So what are the wins Trump and other leaders are hoping for, and what are the pitfalls?

Our correspondents explain what you need to know about the week ahead.

By Anthony Zurcher, North America Correspondent

Striking new trade deals that provide opportunities for American businesses while keeping tariff revenue flowing into the U.S. treasury is sure to be a central focus of Trump’s Asia trip.

While there are multiple players in the global trade dance, the key to Trump’s success or failure is China. And Trump’s planned meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of APEC — the first since 2019 — could set the course for U.S.-China relations through the end of Trump’s second term.

As the US president has acknowledged, draconian tariffs on Chinese imports are unsustainable. And though he hasn’t said it explicitly, an escalating economic war with America’s largest trading partner would have devastating consequences—for the United States, for China, and for the rest of the world.

The steep declines in major US stock indexes whenever China and the US find themselves at a standoff underscore this reality.

When he returns to America next week, Trump will surely be pleased if he can finalize a deal with South Korea and secure new Japanese investment in American manufacturing.

But his top priority will surely be to persuade Xi to resume purchases of US agricultural exports, loosen recent restrictions on foreign access to Chinese rare earths, give US companies greater access to the Chinese market and avoid a full-scale trade war.

For Trump, as they say, this is the whole game.

By Laura Bicker, China Correspondent

When Chinese leader Xi Jinping meets Trump on Oct. 30 in South Korea, he wants to be the tougher negotiator.

That’s why he’s using China’s grip on rare earths, the minerals without which you can’t make semiconductors, weapons systems, cars or even smartphones. This is a US weakness, and China is taking advantage of it – just as it is hurting American farmers and rural Trump voters by not buying their soybeans.

Xi has also learned from Trump 1.0, and this time it looks like Beijing is ready to embrace the pain of tariffs. For one thing, the US, which once accounted for a fifth of China’s exports, is no longer such an important market.

Still, Xi must strike a balance between an economic battle with the US and his struggle with domestic challenges. And Washington knows about Xi’s problems: high youth unemployment, a real estate crisis, rising local government debt and a population reluctant to spend.

Analysts believe China may offer to strike a deal if Trump agrees to start exporting advanced AI chips or withdraw more military support for Taiwan.

But getting there won’t be easy. One big difference is that Trump often seems willing to roll the dice and make bets — but Xi is playing a much longer game.

So the question may be: Can Trump wait?

By Jonathan Head, Southeast Asia Correspondent

The President of the United States seems to be interested in only one thing during his visit to Malaysia: playing the main role in a specially organized ceremony where Thailand and Cambodia will sign some kind of peace agreement.

Differences between the two countries over their borders remain unresolved, but under pressure to come up with something, they have made progress in agreeing to demilitarize the border.

Neither can afford to disappoint President Trump. Back in July, when they were still bombing and shelling each other, his threat to end tariff negotiations forced an immediate ceasefire.

Other ASEAN member states will hope that Trump’s presence, however brief, will normalize relations with the US.

They had a tumultuous year in which their export-dependent economies were badly shaken by his tariff war. Exports from the region to the US have doubled since Trump’s last visit to the ASEAN summit in 2017.

With Trump gone, the other leaders can get down to business as usual—the quiet, incremental diplomacy that accelerates the steady progress of integration between them.

Also on the agenda is a conflict that does not attract Trump’s attention – Myanmar’s civil war, which has haunted every ASEAN gathering since it was sparked by a brutal coup in 2021.

By Suranjana Tewari, Asia Business Correspondent

Manufacturing facilities in Asia, which make up much of the world’s output, will seek a break from Trump’s tariffs.

Some have agreed deals, while others are still in negotiations – but none have signed an agreement.

So ink on paper or at least promising conversations would be welcome.

Take China. The Trump-Xi meeting signals progress, but the two leaders have a lot to sort out, from tariffs and export controls to the source of it all: the rivalry between the world’s two largest economies competing for an edge in AI and advanced technology.

Any easing of these tensions would bring relief to other countries in the region caught in the middle. Southeast Asia may be the most stuck—it’s deeply enmeshed in US electronics supply chains, for example, but still depends heavily on Chinese demand.

Exports to the US have doubled in the past decade, but tariffs of 10% to 40% would hit producers in Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand.

It could also hurt U.S. chipmakers such as Micron Technology, which operates factories in Malaysia. The country exported about $10 billion worth of semiconductors to the U.S. last year, roughly one-fifth of total U.S. chip imports.

Rich economies like Japan and South Korea face a different dilemma.

Although they are close allies of the US, they are in an unpredictable time – and will want to lock in tariff terms and investment. Automakers in both countries, which see the US as a key market, are already struggling to cope with the chaos.

By Shaima Khalil, correspondent in Japan

Trump described Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi as a woman of great “strength and wisdom.”

This week, her ability to build a stable working relationship with him will be an early test of her leadership — and of Japan’s place in the changing world order.

In her first speech to parliament, she pledged to increase Japan’s defense budget, signaling her intention to share more of the security burden with Washington.

Trump has talked about it before and is expected to press Tokyo to contribute more to US troop deployments – Japan hosts the largest number of US forces overseas, some 53,000 personnel.

Both sides also want to finalize a tariff deal negotiated by her predecessor.

Particularly beneficial to Japanese auto giants Toyota, Honda and Nissan, it cuts import tariffs on Japanese cars into the US from 27.5% to 15%, potentially making them more competitive against Chinese rivals.

By retaining Ryosei Akazawa as chief tariff negotiator, Takaichi is banking on continuity.

In return, Japan pledged to invest $550 billion in the US to strengthen pharmaceutical and semiconductor supply chains.

Trump also said Japan would increase purchases of U.S. farm products, including rice, a move welcomed in Washington but unsettling for Japanese farmers.

Takaichi’s ties to the late former prime minister Shinzo Abe, who shared a close relationship with Trump, could also work in her favor.

Abe used the famous Mar-a-Lago golf course to win Trump’s trust — the kind of personal diplomacy Takaichi might want to emulate.

By Jake Kwon, correspondent in Seoul

For South Korean President Lee Jae-moon, the pressing issue is Trump’s tariffs.

But that thunder was briefly stolen by rampant speculation that Trump might visit the border to see North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

Back in August, Lee devoted most of his time in the Oval Office to flattering Trump as a “peacemaker.” Trump responded enthusiastically to the prospect of sitting down with Kim, whom he has not seen since 2019. Kim said last month that he still remembered Trump “fondly.”

Analysts believe Kim hopes to legitimize his nuclear weapons program with another summit with the US president. There is no indication that a meeting is being worked on.

Either way, Lee needs to negotiate a trade deal. Talks to cut US tariffs on South Korean exports from 25% to 15% have stalled, despite repeated trips by officials from Seoul to Washington. The stumbling block is Trump’s insistence that Seoul invest $350 billion upfront in the U.S. — roughly a fifth of South Korea’s economy — such a huge investment could create a financial crisis, Seoul fears.

But in recent days, Korean officials have expressed hope, talking of tangible progress. And he will be hoping for a signed deal by the end of the summit between Trump and Lee on Wednesday.