Tanzania’s election looks like a coronation rather than a contest for President Samia Suluhu Hassan

No heavyweight opposition candidates cleared to contest Wednesday’s election, many Tanzanians see the vote as less of a contest and more of a coronation for President Samia Suluhu Hassan as she faces her first presidential election.

The 65-year-old became the East African nation’s first female head of state following the death in 2021 of incumbent President John Magufuli. He was admired on the one hand for his no-nonsense drive to root out corruption, but criticized on the other for his authoritarian crackdown on dissent and controversial handling of the Covid pandemic.

President Samia, who was vice president, seemed like a breath of fresh air – and with her warmer and friendlier style, she initiated reforms that appeared to represent a radical departure from her predecessor’s policies.

Her Four Rupees policy – ​​“reconciliation, resilience, reform and recovery” – reopened Tanzania to foreign investors, restored relations with donors and softened the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.

“She made the difference, the lost link between Tanzania and international organizations like the World Bank was restored,” political analyst Mohamed Issa told the BBC.

But in the past two years or more, political space has shrunk dramatically – and the targeting of government critics and opposition voices is said to be more ruthless now than it once was under Magufuli, with regular kidnappings and killings now reported.

“Samia came in with a conciliatory tone, but now she has become bold and is taking tough decisions that many did not expect from her,” Mr Issa said.

“Now she is widely blamed for some things like kidnappings, murders, repression of the opposition and other security issues.”

This is reflected in reports by Freedom House, a US-based democracy and human rights group, which ranked Tanzania as “partly free” in 2020 and “not free” last year.

The government has not commented on the allegations.

Samia’s CCM has won every election since multiparty democracy was reintroduced in 1992, but campaigns are usually animated by strong debates between rival parties.

While the Electoral Commission has allowed 17 presidential candidates to run this time, the main opposition party Chadema is banned with its leader Tundu Lisu currently on trial for treason.

He called for electoral reforms before his arrest in April – and now the party is calling on its supporters to boycott the election.

His deputy, John Hatch was also detained last week – and told the BBC just before his arrest that President Samia’s so-called reforms were hollow: “Yes, the rallies were allowed again, but today Chadema cannot fulfill his mandate because the promises were false.”

Meanwhile, presidential candidate Luhana Mpina of the second largest opposition party ACT Wazalendo was also disqualified – twice.

He was able to have his candidacy reinstated by the High Court after it was disqualified over a procedural issue – but when the attorney general appealed last month, the electoral commission decided to uphold the disqualification.

This leaves smaller opposition parties such as Chaumma and CUF in the race, but in reality there is no chance of them stopping Samia from winning her first personal mandate.

“Ruling party control, opposition exclusion and institutional bias undermine electoral trust. Limited civic space and low voter engagement further weaken inclusion,” political analyst Nicodemus Minde said in a recent report for the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) think tank.

This has left some would-be voters, such as Dar es Salaam resident Godfrey Lousanna, desperate.

“We don’t have an election without a strong opposition. The electoral system is not independent. We already know who is going to win. I can’t waste time voting,” he told the BBC. “If the electoral commission was truly independent, I would vote.

This is in stark contrast to the tumultuous campaign on the semi-autonomous archipelago of Zanzibar in Tanzania – where President Samia originally hails from.

Islanders are electing their own regional president and incumbent Hussein Mwini of CCM is running for another term but faces stiff competition from ACT-Wazalendo’s Osman Masoud – who serves as his deputy in a unity administration.

During her election campaign on the mainland, President Samia capitalized on the initial praise she received for her motherly approach – a drive to rule through dialogue rather than decree.

This earned her the nickname “Mama Samia” – and at her rallies she promised to bring widespread development through better infrastructure, healthcare and education.

Many women, especially those in rural communities, see her as a stabilizing force.

“She brings dignity, we young women look up to her. We feel her presence as president and it gives us confidence that we can be reliable for our communities now and in the future,” Queen Castoric, a first-time voter from the northern city of Tanga, told the BBC.

But some women in urban areas, like Selina Ponciana, who will also be voting for the first time in Dar es Salaam, are more ambivalent: “Leadership is not just tone.

“I believe the president has a job to do, first on unemployment. She has supported some, but many still need help,” she said.

Another young woman in Morogoro, near Dar es Salaam, said she supported the president but declined to give her name to the BBC in case she faced a backlash from her contemporaries.

“Samiya made us believe that women can lead. I wish I could say more, but a lot of young people don’t speak positively about her,” she said.

Young people make up the majority of Tanzania’s 37.7 million registered voters – and there is anger from some at the president’s silence on issues such as the shocking kidnappings.

And while some credit President Samia for stabilizing the economy, there is even nostalgia in some quarters for Magufuli given the growing reports of corruption.

Her more hard-line approach lately can be traced to a few issues.

In a society traditionally dominated by men, she faces problems asserting her authority. At recent rallies, she reminded voters who’s boss: “Remember, I’m the chief of the defense forces.”

She may also feel undermined by colleagues. Within the NKK, there was some opposition to the fact that she became the undisputed candidate for party president.

One senior party member who criticized her automatic nomination – Humphrey Polepole – has since been kidnapped under mysterious circumstances.

There is also suggestion that she has actually become a pawn of a powerful network of business tycoons and other influential supporters of CCM, colloquially known as Mukhoho, according to Mr Minde in his ISS report.

“Internal (CCM) party democracy was stifled through an orchestrated move to make President Samia the sole candidate. While this has deepened divisions in the party, a facade of unity is presented to the public,” he said.

Magufuli is believed to have refused to take orders from Mthandao, preferring to stick to his own anti-corruption agenda.

Mr Minde warns that all this has contributed to the prevailing sense of fear in the East African nation. With media self-censorship and the shrinking of political discourse, public debate has retreated into private conversations and social media.

Analysts warn that such alienation, especially among young people, could further erode Tanzania’s democracy – and spell trouble down the road for President Samia if there is not a large turnout and protests begin.

For Tito Magotti, a lawyer and young political activist, the demands remain simple.

“We want a free Tanzania where everyone has the freedom to speak,” he told the BBC.

“The freedom of movement and the freedom to do whatever they want.”