Caught in the middle, South Korea hosts rival superpowers

“Not Trump!” the rally of hundreds shouted, growing louder as it approached the United States embassy in the center of South Korea’s capital, Seoul.

A line of police buses stopped them from reaching the gates, but the stage and loudspeaker ensured their voices would rise above Gwanghwamun Square and be heard by US President Donald Trump’s representatives.

It was a small rally by the standards of South Korea’s vibrant protest culture. And it wasn’t the only one underway. A few hundred meters to the north, outside the gates of Gyeongbokgung Palace, demonstrators held aloft more flags while chanting an entirely different message.

“No China”, along with a minor “CCP (Chinese Communist Party) out!”. Again, the numbers – several hundred people – were not large for South Korea.

Still, this step through downtown Seoul on a sunny Saturday is an indication of the diplomatic dance South Korean President Lee Jae-myung will have to perform this week as he hosts the leaders of both the United States and China.

Seoul is – and has long been – a key US ally. A friendship “forged in blood,” as its leaders often say, during the Korean War of 1950 to 1953, when American troops helped repel a North Korean invasion. The South still needs Washington’s protection, but it also needs China, its largest trading partner and vital export market.

“This is a particularly difficult time – South Korea finds itself between a rock and a hard place,” said Darcy Draud-Vejares of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“Year after year, he epitomizes the choice of many countries around the world that are deeply economically integrated with China, but also economically integrated with the US. Right now, Lee Jae-myung is trying to maneuver between these superpowers.”

So much so that his country is even hosting talks between Trump and Xi Jinping on Thursday that could lead to a breakthrough in their on-again-off-again trade war.

At 61, Lee is a seasoned politician, but he has a job.

His emphatic victory in June followed six months of turmoil. His predecessor Yoon Suk-yeol’s short-lived martial law sparked massive protests and a constitutional crisis that eventually led to his impeachment, but left the country polarized.

By the time Lee took office, Trump’s tariffs had stunned allies and rivals alike. Negotiations began, and in August Lee visited the White House and turned on the charm. It seems to be working.

South Korea thought it had appeased its powerful friend. Seoul has said it will invest $350 billion in the U.S. and buy $100 billion worth of liquefied natural gas. In return, Trump agreed to cut tariffs from 25% to 15%.

But then more than 300 South Koreans were detained in a massive immigration raid at a Hyundai plant in the US state of Georgia. Almost all of them have since returned, but that has shaken ties – especially since Hyundai is a major investor in the US.

“I don’t think U.S.-Korea relations are necessarily severed at this point,” Hye-yeon Lee, 23, said as the protest outside the U.S. embassy ended.

“Although I think it’s eroding significantly,” she added.

The White House has also increased its demands as part of the trade talks, with Trump now pushing for cash investment in the US. Despite attempts to sign a deal, there is no final agreement and hopes of reaching one when the two leaders meet on Wednesday are not high.

“South Korea has a huge prosperity and security risk with this visit, but in a funny way, the less time Donald Trump is here, the better it might be for President Lee Jae-myung,” said John Delury, a senior fellow at the Asia Society’s Center on US-China Relations.

“It doesn’t look like they’re close to a breakthrough in their trade agreement. So if Trump comes in, has his meetings, they go well, and he’s out of here in 24 hours, that’s not a terrible outcome as far as South Korea is concerned.”

And there’s also clearly anger and frustration, some of it fueled by Trump’s controversial personal politics. Hence the protests, where 22-year-old student Kim Sol-yi carried a banner depicting a cartoon Trump spewing money.

“When he called South Korea a ‘money machine,’ that really pissed me off,” she said. “It seems like the U.S. looks at and treats South Korea as its cash cow — plain and simple — asking for massive investment. To be honest, it makes me pretty angry and question whether the U.S. even considers us an equal partner.”

Still, South Koreans’ views of the U.S. appear largely positive. Nearly nine in 10 consider the U.S. their most important ally, according to a survey conducted earlier this year by the U.S. Pew Research Center. But the survey happened before the attacks in Georgia.

The poll was less favorable to South Korea’s other superpower guest this week: China, whom a third of respondents see as their country’s biggest threat.

“I came out here today out of love for South Korea, to protect South Korea,” said Park Da-sum, 27, who was at the other anti-China protest.

“I feel that the Republic of Korea is gradually being taken over by Chinese influences,” she adds, but with a pragmatic warning.

“Of course, I believe we should maintain a certain level of favorable diplomatic relations with China. What we don’t like is the CCP — the Chinese Communist Party.”

Anti-China sentiment in South Korea has grown steadily since 2016, when Seoul agreed to deploy an advanced US missile defense system to the country, prompting economic retaliation from an angry Beijing. There are also historical grievances and their relationship has always been uneasy.

But mistrust has grown on the right in a country divided by Yun’s impeachment. Chinese interference has become a common trope in conspiracy theories about Yun being the victim of election fraud.

While tens of thousands called for his removal from office, his far fewer but vocal supporters opposed his impeachment — even now a fringe group of conservatives regularly calls for his reinstatement. They are also the ones uniting against China.

“Korea for Koreans” read placards at protests over the weekend, along with signs calling on the government to “Stop Chinese Boats”. A coffee shop is facing criticism after posting online that it will refuse to serve Chinese customers.

Such cases have led to accusations of racism, but Soo-bin, a 27-year-old who attended the protests, disagreed: “We value democratic freedom and a free market economy. We want a Republic of Korea where all freedoms – freedom of association, assembly, religion, expression – are protected. That’s why we stand here.”

Observers say this is a minority view, represented by a small portion of the Korean electorate. Still, it’s hard to deny that there has been a slight spike in anti-China rhetoric recently since President Li eased visa rules for Chinese tour groups.

Lee tried to curb the protests by introducing a bill banning rallies that promote hatred or discrimination. And long known for his openness to pursuing stronger ties with China, he has made it clear that is what he intends to do in office.

Xi Jinping is due to meet Lee privately on Saturday during his first visit to South Korea in 11 years, despite being a short distance from Beijing.

“If President Lee can deliver on the economy, everyone will give him a pass, except for what ends up being a pretty fringe position on what you might say is the far right,” Mr. Delury says. “President Lee is really ruling more toward the center, and the center of Korea wants to get along with China.”

Xi arrives on Thursday and, after meeting Trump, will spend three days in the ancient capital of Gyeongju with other leaders attending the ATIS summit. He has been spending more time in South Korea than Trump, a huge diplomatic opportunity as he seeks to portray China as a more stable trading partner and global power.

Better relations with Beijing – ties have soured under Yun, who was seen as hawkish on China – could also help President Lee open a conversation with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.

It’s also a dialogue he and his Democratic Party have been pushing for — earlier historic summits between Trump and Kim also happened with the help of a South Korean leader from the same party.

Could it happen this time? The US president said he wanted to talk, but there was no response from Pyongyang.

Kim aside, it’s a big week for South Korea and Lee. It’s hard to miss America’s influence on the country, from music to religion, but South Korea is now a rich, soft-power giant with its own voice.

The streets are teeming with Westerners in traditional Korean hanbok looking for merchandise from the Netflix K-pop hit Demon Hunters or lining up at K-beauty shops for the hottest new face masks. The economy is picking up speed again.

However much Lee chooses to move between the world’s two largest economies, it is hard to see how he can afford to alienate either.