The failure of communication is becoming global.

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There is a reason birth rates are increasingly prominent in discourse and policy making today. Population aging and decline is one of the most powerful forces in the world, shaping everything Economics to the Politics and the environment.

But the weakness of the argument – perhaps the term “birth rates” itself – means that the goal is the same today as it was in the past: to find ways to encourage couples to have more children. A closer look at the data suggests an entirely new challenge.

Take America as an example. Between 1960 and 1980, the average no Children born to women are reduced by half Almost four to two, as The role of women in marriage A couple have a slightly lower edge. There were still many couples in a happy and stable relationship. They were choosing to have small families.

But much of the decline in recent years has come not from the decisions couples make, but from the sheer decline in the number of couples. have been American marriage and cohabitation rates If held constant over the past decade, the U.S. total birth rate would be higher than it is today.

The central demographic story of our time is not just a decline in fertility but an increase in singleness: a more fundamental change in the nature of modern societies.

Relationships are not only diminishing, they are becoming increasingly fragile. Equivalently, Finland is more so now. It is common for married couples to break up Instead of giving birth, a sharp change in the historical norm.

Given that happy childless dinks (dual income, childless couples) have grown more disposable incomes, the social trend toward birth rates looks good.

But the rise of singleness and the breakup of relationships is a less interesting story, especially as the decline in relationship formation is among the highest. Very poor. Of course, many people are happily single. Freedom to choose how to spend one’s life and with whom (or not) to be celebrated. But more information on Loneliness And Dating disappointment It indicates that everything is not good.

The trend is global. From America, Finland and South Korea to Turkey, Tunisia and Thailand; Falling birth rates The failure of communication among young people is increasing day by day. Children’s bonuses An increasing proportion of people without a partner put the cart before the horse. Similar trends are occurring in parts of sub-Saharan Africa.

Why is it declining almost all over the world and why now? The fact that this happened almost everywhere at the same time suggests broader changes across borders rather than country-specific factors.

The proliferation of smartphones and social media is one such shock. Geographical differences in the rise of singularity in a broad track Mobile Internet use, especially among women, Who’s calculation by weighing potential partners It is changing.. This is consistent. Research Demonstrating social media facilitates the spread of liberal values ​​(especially among women) and empowers women.

The coalition’s decline is most linear in Europe, East Asia and Latin America, followed by the Middle East and Africa. Singleness remains rare in South Asia, there It is a women’s web site More limited.

This is not to overstate the role of social media. Other cultural differences between countries and regions influence both the spread of liberal ideas and people’s ability to act on them. Class and honor systems encourage high-marriage regardless of media accessAnd female education, income, and employment vary significantly between states.

But while the specific strategies are up for debate, the role of financial incentives and other policy changes in shaping the prevalence of singlehood and birth rates is evident. It can increase the birth rateThey are struggling against very strong sociocultural forces.

Policies aimed at facilitating the formation of relationships may be more effective than those aimed at encouraging couples to have children.

A world of increasing singleness It’s not better or worse than the one filled with couples and families, but it’s fundamentally different from what came before, with the main ones. Socialeconomic and Political Implications We are faced with a dilemma: Is this what people want? If not, what needs to change?

john.burn-murdoch@ft.com, @jburnmurdoch