Elon Musk tweets so much, people bet over $1M weekly to guess how many posts

Will Elon Musk post more than 400 tweets this week? Over 800? Guess correctly and you can walk away with a nice chunk of cash if you back up your opinion by buying “shares” in Polymarket.

D The sometimes controversial Polymarket A “prediction market” on the Internet. It’s a novel – and fairly sophisticated – way to put your money where your mouth is when you feel the urge to express an opinion on the Internet. Even if your opinion is “I’ll bet Musk tweets over 400 times this week.”

In fact, the mask tweeting “market” on the site is so active that it’s given a top-level site link and repeats weekly. This week’s market, which ends on January 17, has already done $1.9 million in trading volume and has regularly hit over $1 million. It does not mean that you will win that much money. Your payout will depend on how many shares you buy if your tweet-volume estimate turns out to be true. (Polymarket did not respond to our request for comment on how much this market paid.)

Site records show it has been a weekly market since at least June. And there is a second one where users can place bets Number of tweets from 300 to 550+ in 25-tweet increments.

Discussions in the market turn serious, sounding a bit like horse track gamblers about picking their ponies. For example, on Tuesday, User analyzed “rogu”. “Current tweets are at 50 per day, on pace to hit 350. To get to 400+ he’ll need to average over 65 per day for the rest of the time. While that’s a fair bit more, it’s not *that* much. With the upcoming Starship test flight he’ll be doing these days. can tweet a bit more than.”

Rogue is referring to the launch of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 7, which is scheduled for January 15.

Polymarket’s main competitor, Kalshi, also has a top-level link to Elon Musk, but links to all sorts of wanna-bet type opinions about Musk, from his role in the new administration to speculation about his future net worth. People can certainly bet or buy shares on those things in the polymarket.

But the ongoing favorite is how much time Musk will spend on his beloved, privately owned social media site. And it must be a silly yet entertaining way people spend their money on the internet