The long-awaited ceasefire in Gaza may stop the killing, but it will not end the conflict

A senior Palestinian official told the BBC that Hamas would release three female soldiers on the first day of the ceasefire. Mediators in Doha are trying to start the truce earlier, on Thursday night instead of Sunday.

Until the ceasefire takes effect, the war that began when Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, continues. At least 12 Palestinians were killed by Israeli strikes in northern Gaza around the time the ceasefire was announced.

In what has at times been an hourly ritual over the past 15 months, video has emerged from northern Gaza showing their bodies being carried out of ambulances in sheets and lined up outside a hospital.

The ceasefire is a significant diplomatic achievement. It’s long past time. Versions of the deal have been on the table since it was announced by US President Joe Biden last May. Hamas and Israel blame each other for the delays.

In Khan Younis in Gaza, journalists working for the BBC filmed Palestinians dancing and chanting as it became clear that a ceasefire had been agreed.

Israel does not allow international journalists to enter Gaza to report freely, so the BBC and other news organizations rely on valiant Palestinian journalists to gather news for us. Reporting on the last 15 months of war would be impossible without them. Israel has killed more than 200 Palestinian journalists in Gaza.

Um Muhammad, an elderly Palestinian woman, told one of our journalists that she felt happy and relieved.

“The pain is gone a little, but it’s still there. May it be overcome by joy. May our prisoners be freed and the wounded be healed. People are exhausted.”

Other than survival, there is little to celebrate for the Palestinians in Gaza. Israel has killed at least 50,000 people. More than two million people have been forced from their homes by Israeli military action.

Israel’s response to Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, which killed around 1,200 people, mostly Israeli civilians, left Gaza in ruins. According to the Hamas-run health ministry, Israeli attacks have killed almost 50,000 people, both fighters and civilians. A recent study in the medical journal Lancet says this may be a significant underestimate.

It was also a bittersweet moment in Tel Aviv for the families and supporters of the Israeli hostages, living and dead. In the first phase of the ceasefire, 33 women, elderly men and the sick and wounded are due to be released over the next six weeks in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian detainees and prisoners – but the future of the remaining hostages depends on more negotiations.

Negotiations on the second phase of the agreement, to release the remaining Israeli hostages in exchange for imprisoned Palestinians and an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, are due to begin sixteen days after the agreement.

The first major challenge is to ensure that the truce is respected. Senior Western diplomats fear that after the first phase of 42 days, the war could resume.

The war in Gaza has huge ramifications in the Middle East. It did not lead, as many had feared, to all-out war in the region — the Biden administration took credit for that — but it did lead to geostrategic upheaval.

Hamas can still fight, but it is a shadow of what it used to be. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defense minister have been indicted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court. The International Court of Justice is investigating a case brought by South Africa accusing Israel of genocide.

After Hezbollah in Lebanon intervened in the war, it was eventually crushed by an Israeli offensive. This was a factor that led to the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. Iran and Israel exchanged direct attacks, weakening Iran. His network of allies and proxies, which Tehran called the Axis of Resistance, was crippled.

The Houthis in Yemen have halted much of the shipping between Europe and Asia that passes through the Red Sea. Now reports say they have announced their own ceasefire. Since they began attacking the ships at the start of the war, they have said that only a ceasefire in Gaza will stop them.

With luck, political will and serious diplomatic efforts, the truce will hold despite the inevitable violations. With luck, he can stop the killing and return the Israeli hostages and Palestinian detainees and prisoners back to their families.

But after 15 months of war in Gaza, the conflict, which has lasted more than a century, is as bitter and intractable as ever.

A ceasefire does not end the conflict. The effects of so much destruction and death will be felt for at least a generation.