The Sun Does Something Weird Right Before It Unleashes Solar Flares

Intense solar flares — sudden bursts of electromagnetic radiation from the Sun — can shoot dangerous levels of energy strong enough to reach Earth’s atmosphere. Predicting solar flares, however, is not as simple as predicting a sunny day.

A team of researchers co-led by heliophysicist Emily Mason of Predictive Sciences Inc. has identified a type of solar activity within the Sun’s atmosphere that may precede and thus signal an impending solar flare. Their research is detailed in a Dec Study published Astrophysical Journal Letters And presented Jan. 15 at the 245th meeting of the American Astronomical Society, has important implications for efforts to keep astronauts and space resources safe.

Indeed, predicting solar flares is critical to protecting both people and technology from the Sun’s erratic eruptions. Solar flares can disrupt satellite communications, GPS systems and power grids on Earth, as well as expose astronauts and spacecraft to dangerous levels of radiation. A reliable early warning system would thus be a welcome tool to mitigate the dangers of space weather.

Using NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, Mason and his colleagues analyzed the churning of arch-like structures in the Sun’s outer atmosphere known as the corona, led by 50 intense solar flares. Coronal loops exist in the same magnetically active regions of the Sun that give rise to solar flares, according to one NASA statement. The researchers observed that the brightness of coronal loops in the extreme ultraviolet varies much more in the hours before a large nearby flare compared to coronal loops above the non-flaring region.

“We found that some of the ultraviolet light above the active region flickered irregularly for several hours before the solar flare,” Mason explained in the statement. “The results are really important for understanding flares and could improve our ability to predict dangerous space weather.”

The researchers suggest that observing ultraviolet brightness variations in the coronal loops can predict weather two to six hours ahead with 60 to 80 percent accuracy, which—if proven true—is more precise than previous forecasting methods.

“The Sun’s corona is a dynamic environment, and each solar flare is like a snowflake — every single flare is unique,” said Kara Niezewski of the Air Force Institute of Technology, who co-led the study. “We find that searching for periods of ‘chaotic’ behavior in coronal loop emissions, rather than specific trends, provides a much more consistent metric.”

Vadim Uritsky of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, who also participated in the study, envisions a “well-tested and, ideally, simpler” build. [solar flare] indicator ready to make the leap from research to operation.” The researchers also suggest that the stronger the flare, the earlier the flickering peaks, but they acknowledge that more analysis is needed to confirm this potential direction.

Scientists have been trying to predict solar flares for decades. If recent research proves true, the glowing coronal loops could essentially act as a flashing warning signal to humans and technology in harm’s way.