China’s December exports likely to get early boost from tariff uncertainty: Reuters poll

By Ethan Wang and Joe Cash

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s exports may have expanded at their fastest pace in December, suggesting manufacturers are scrambling to move products to key markets ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House this month and new trade risks.

Exports are expected to rise 7.3% in value terms from a year earlier, up from a 6.7% expansion in November, according to the average forecast of 17 economists in a Reuters poll.

Exports fell 1.5% in December, down from a 3.9% decline the previous month, indicating that factory managers are scrambling to protect technology products in anticipation of tighter semiconductor export controls from the United States.

Data on Monday pointed to sustained strength in China’s exports, even as the broader economy grapples with challenges such as a prolonged property market crisis and deflation.

Still, differing views persist among Chinese audiences. JP Morgan predicts a 7.9% increase in exports, while Standard Chartered (OTC:) predicts a 5.4% growth.

Most economists polled by Reuters agreed that imports were flat for a third straight month, although Standard Chartered said there was modest growth of 1.5%.

South Korea, which showed an 8.6 percent increase in exports to China in December, is an indicator of China’s imports.

Exports are likely to be strong in early 2025 as exporters continue to frontload; Barclay (LON:) There is research. However, doubts are looming over Trump’s threat of tariffs that could spark a trade war between the US and China.

Trump, who recently proposed a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, has denied media reports that his team is exploring higher tariff plans because of inflation concerns.

Meanwhile, trade tensions with the European Union have escalated after the European Union imposed tariffs of up to 45.3% on Chinese electric vehicles.

Beijing has responded by targeting European products such as brandy in anti-dumping probes amid negotiations to reverse or reduce tariffs.

Economists continue to call for the economy to recover by shifting reliance on investment and exports to avoid prolonged low growth.

Chinese President Xi Jinping Promising “more proactive” policies to boost growth by 2025, policymakers have recently vowed to boost consumption and expand domestic demand.

According to Reuters, the government expects to maintain economic growth of around 5% this year.

China’s December trade surplus is forecast at $99.8 billion, up from $97.4 billion in November.