How low will UK interest be?

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The writer It is the highest vice President and Economic in Pyco.

UK government’s bonds are at the beginning of the year. After the first two weeks of developing in the first two weeks, approximately 0.3% for five years Gilts – returned to them now. Despite noise around budget policy, the measures are often performed in international matters. US bond products have shown the same flexibility.

Bond markets in the UK may be more vulnerable to the Foscalmism of the UK after 2022 Religious budget. But the lasting of the fiscal in the UK is not different from the peers, including France, including faster debt and rapidly growing debt.

However, the United Kingdom continues to be a Police note. Policy Bank Policy Policy Policy Policy Policy Policy Policy Policy Policy Policy Polycieth is the highest level of rich countries. It’s a reason for activity. Since the summer of the summer, economic growth has frozen, and the interest of worker has significantly reduced. In the past year, inflation reduced and is now in the “two-point” region, which is 2 percent of the Boe target. It is not surprising, then, that Boe’s intense interest in the December of December, the Boe is the desire to reduce the future.

But how much will it be? Different from many other central banks of Boe He did not give clear guidance. It takes a great deal of humility to guide my funding in the financial policy. In nature, it is based on the factors that exchanged the provision of the capital and needs of the capital.

The easiest way to estimate is by showing economic growth. The highest countries on high growth levels attracts many investments and encourage small savings, which will increase the price. In this parameter, the long-term interest rate in England looks high. Since the beginning of the flu, productivity is only less than 0.5%, and the right productivity may be lower due to the next issue of laborhood research. Information, this may be a low reporting levels of employment levels.

The inflation creates pressure on interest rates. Although the main price of the United Kingdom – 3.2% of the last year – it is a little higher than most developed countries, but it is not being seen. Price violations are not particularly reduced in the ministry. Central Banking Central Bank is unexpected and that the United Kingdom’s structural infrastructure increase more than other countries.

However, markets are still suspicious that only a few reductions of 4% final arrival. This view may reflect thressing concerns that the increase of government expenses. Markets may be suspicious of the government’s commitment to the new fiscal statues in terms of the latest adjustment history. Like Italy, however, as large, high, countries that grow in the bottom of the stealthy economic growth, which is the highest interest rate.

We have a central look more comfortable for the mastery of the Fiscal Policy. Although government expense increases, the tax adds, filing of the filing policy strictly. As shown in recent surveys, the net can be pulled in motion and work. Organizations can transfer some of the national insurance travel to users, but that is a price rating – as an independent value tax or targe. Typically, that central banks have seen. And the government will soon be surprised if there is no tax or expenses, taking into account of tax or expenses.

Likewise, we wait UK Gilt product To reject. The five-year Gilit production is now less than the smaller of the United States and we expect it to fall below the US level before the end of the plague. Although inflation is higher in recent months, there are additional reasons for the fall of the world’s world trade and general soft growth view rates.

Concerning policy, our internal models indicate the independent interest rate of 2 to 3 percent in the UK. Although Boe is careful, we’ll see that if the market is expected to be expected more than the first half of this year. In time, Boe can eventually follow fast reduction including other central bank, Canadian Bank, New Zealand Bank, New Zealand Bank, New Zeaan Bank.