How to expect an acceptable agreement for Ukraine

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Along with the Middle East, the future of Ukraine is one of the most important geopolitical questions of the coming year. US President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to end Russia’s relentless war of aggression against its neighbor within 24 hours of his return to power. Kyiv has signaled readiness for a deal on its own terms. Despite the tension Russian economyHowever, Vladimir Putin – whose military has made slow but steady progress over the past year – shows little inclination to come to the table. The biggest risk is that Ukraine is pushed into a truce that is bad for the country, for European security, and ultimately for the US and other allies.

The concern in Europe is that Trump may prioritize speed. Agreement As the first president’s trophy. He said she was forcing Kiev into talks by threatening to cut off US aid. Without pressure on Moscow, however, this would almost certainly be a concession to Russian interests, including the neutralization of Ukraine and the avoidance of hostilities.

of Risks of such an agreement They are clear. A weakened Ukraine could slip back into Moscow’s orbit or fall to further Russian aggression later. The leadership in Kiev may not even accept a deal that amounts to surrender, but prefers to fight without US support. European countries feel a moral and strategic obligation to help. Either way, Trump sees pulling the U.S. out of Ukraine as freeing it to focus on China, but any aspect of Washington abandoning an ally will embolden not only Beijing but the likes of North Korea and Iran.

An alternative deal is at least conceivable, much harder to achieve but much better for Ukraine and its allies. He wants to make sure that even if Russia can fully control some territories in Ukraine – although this prospect is disgusting – the rest can be rebuilt, join the European Union and prosper.

There are two central challenges to realizing such a vision. One is to force a recalcitrant Putin to the table ready to compromise; After all, his aim is only to conquer the territory of Ukraine, rather than to destroy it. But it may still be possible to push the Russian leader into agreement by warning – like Trump proposed that – That the US would otherwise give Ukraine “more than it gets.”

This is not only promising, but to show seriousness will require the delivery of significantly increased military aid to Kiev. Accidents Russian development It increases. But as some people close to the US president-elect have noted, the 2018 election that Trump allegedly insulted A “bad” deal for Ukraine could be “Trump’s Afghanistan” in 2021, citing anarchy under Joe Biden. European partners should press this debate with the new president.

The second test is that the rest of Ukraine should support any agreement to rebuild the territory Security guarantees It is strong enough to defend Moscow against future attacks. Since it may be impossible to reach an agreement to invite Kiev to join NATO, and Trump is trying to prevent the US from increasing its military commitment in Europe, it may fall on European countries to offer such arrangements. French President Emmanuel Macron led the talks, including a possible consultation on security guarantees. Deploying troops. But progress is limited. Adequate arrangements will require the mobilization of currently depleted European forces and resources on a scale not seen for decades.

Neither a “bad” ceasefire nor the prospect of regaining Ukraine’s integrity is an attractive option for a prolonged war of attrition. An acceptable agreement will be complex to reach and expensive to support. Bearing those costs now, however, can avoid more costs down the line.