Optimism is not confidence when Trump takes over.

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The writer is the FT’s contributing editor, chief economist for America’s Compass and writes for the newsletter Understanding America

Washington was brimming with optimism this weekend, but not confidence. Positivity reigns at receptions and galas where gossip is the currency, and at podcasts where everyone peddles their own spin. “Trump is really . . . ” people said. “It’s very rugged.”

There is no doubt that this is a “vibe shift,” comments suggest, especially when compared to the senescent presidency toward a slow and painful end. The return of a president who can do anything would be a huge improvement by default. But the great potential for a reformed administration to usher in a new “golden age,” as the Trump team likes to say, is certainly not balanced by how his administration continues.

Everyone wants to talk about artificial intelligence, for example—although there is less excitement about superintelligence because of its more everyday potential for improved productivity. The issue is that continuing to improve the models and expanding their capacity for widespread implementation will require Herculean infrastructure investments on plausible timelines.

In one possible world, Donald Trump and his team focus on building their economic agenda: rapidly developing natural resources, expanding infrastructure, subsidizing investment and training the workforce. This makes a lot of sense, but it’s not something you talk about a lot. Trump himself is likely to focus his enthusiasm on cryptocurrency, while high-profile supporters like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have spent much of their energy criticizing American culture and calling for more foreign workers.

At the same time, the separation of the US and China’s economy has become very important and Trump has indicated his support for this, including a call to revoke China’s “permanent normal trade relationship” status in the Republican Party platform. Although the year Despite issuing an executive order to ban TikTok in 2020, it is now positioning itself as a savior. The platform went dark that day after a law requiring parent company ByteDance to transfer its services to an American firm or shut down on January 19. Users have received notice that the company expects to work with Trump to restore it. And Trump is now saying he will do that. In response, ByteDance brought TikTok online to the delight of users.

Is Trump a China hawk determined to reverse the mistakes of globalization, even if Americans feel a little pain as they climb back out of the hole they dug themselves? Or is he interested in scoring points as the president who kept Tik Tok after his predecessor got tired of it?

There are countless similar questions. Will the fight to extend the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act dominate the legislative calendar for the first year? Should the government adopt humanitarian strategies to deport illegal immigrants in order to secure public support for its actions, or proceed in ways designed to generate condemnation and controversy?

Will the administration revel in the collapse of the higher education system, or will it work equally hard to build new pathways to good careers out of college? Does the “Government Efficiency Unit” focus on the efficiency of government or does it create constant chaos outside of its mandate?

Reasons for optimism lie in the quality of Trump’s top appointments, which represent a rare improvement over his first term. If the administration’s discipline and performance travel the distance from Mike Pence to JD Vance, Rex Tillerson to Marco Rubio, or Reince Priebus to Susie Wills, a new golden age may indeed be upon us.

In the year In 2016, Trump will be able to draw on a larger supply chain of support institutions, ideas and personnel, now with a large talent bench and a thick playbook aligned with his own priorities. He is quietly stocking his team with serious players throughout the agencies and White House offices.

But the team’s captain, coach and quarterback is still Trump himself. Most people don’t make good bets on the decisions he’ll make in the Oval Office, much less predict what conventional analysis would suggest. The fruit is big and juicy and hangs less than ever, and now everyone is waiting to see what he will choose.