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There were talks in the Middle East in early December when Donald Trump warned that there would be “all hell to pay” in the Middle East if Israeli hostages held in Gaza were not released.
The US president-elect’s aggressive tone paid off, adding momentum to long-delayed talks and reached a ceasefire deal with Israel and Hamas on Wednesday to end the deadly 15-month war in Gaza and free 98 Gaza hostages. Strip
Along with Steve Witkoff, a friend of Trump’s New York real estate agent, he acted as Middle East envoy, playing a central role in brokering a deadlock between Qatar — which hosted the negotiations — and Israel. In the end, they confirmed a long-standing deal from the Biden administration.
This means that Gazans, who have endured immeasurable suffering in the worst war in their history, will finally get some respite from Israeli bombs and bullets and start thinking about rebuilding.
Relatives of the remaining Israeli hostages who remain in prison after a Hamas attack that killed 1,200 people in October 2023 are beginning to hope their nightmare is over. The prisoners, who have faced a hellish existence in the Hamas tunnel network, will be freed if the deal goes ahead.
The main question is whether he can endure. Is this a temporary truce or will it lead to the permanent ceasefire that mediators, the Palestinians and the wider region so desperately want?
Trump secured a victory with the help of a deal that President Joe Biden had rejected. But the sustainability of the truce brokered by the US, Qatar and Egypt may depend on America’s willingness to continue using its political muscle to ensure that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government sees through the deal.
The Trump administration is packed with staunch pro-Israelis, and during his first term in office he implemented pro-Israel measures that have upended decades of US policy, showing little compassion and tolerance for the Palestinians. But the hope is that Trump will now take ownership of the deal and ensure its success.
However, the threat of sabotage remains on all sides, including Hamas, whose military capabilities are greatly weakened but not destroyed.
The cease-fire agreement is based on a three-step proposal that Biden endorsed earlier in May. First, a 42-day truce begins, during which 33 hostages – women, elderly and wounded – will be released in exchange for agreed Palestinian prisoners. Israeli troops must be stationed away from urban centers and aid must be allowed to flow into the starving and disease-ridden corpses.
The more challenging second phase aims to move towards a permanent ceasefire, the remaining hostages – including Israeli soldiers – and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces.
At this stage, with minor details still to be negotiated, Netanyahu’s resolve will be fully tested.
He has repeatedly stated that he cannot agree to a permanent end to the war or withdraw the army from Gaza. Hamas, meanwhile, has called for the release of life sentences for murder and terrorism – a bitter pill for Israelis.
Netanyahu faced opposition from right-wing allies and ministers Itamar Ben-Givir and Bezalel Smotrich. Smotrich described the agreement as a “surrender”; Ben-Gvir asked the former to join him in resigning from the government this week.
The veteran prime minister’s ruling coalition added another right-wing party in September, but the departure of Ben-Givre and Smotrich leaves a minority government. That could force the political calculus at the ballot box, which Netanyahu wants to avoid, to early elections.
There is still no clarity on the crucial issue of who will cut and run. In the year Neither Israel, the United States nor Arab governments want Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, to retake control, but Netanyahu has not offered a viable plan for “the day after” the war. He rejected US and Arab pressure to work with the Palestinian Authority, which controls part of the occupied West Bank.
He opposes any move toward a Palestinian state, which experts say is the only long-term solution.
The Biden administration has been talking for months about the possibility of forming an international security force with Arab allies to help deal with the civilian problems of the interim PA-backed Palestinian Authority – including Gazans.
But the U.S. won’t put its boots on the ground, and it’s unclear who else will—seemingly absorbed into guerrilla warfare and doing Israel’s bidding. It is unclear whether Trump has presented his own plan or whether the president has given any thoughts on the future of Gaza beyond his inauguration.
Yet the needs of Gazans could not be more urgent. Palestinian officials say the Israeli offensive has killed more than 46,000 people, including civilians and fighters. Entire families are gone, and orphaned children and scarred for life.
Schools, hospitals, houses, offices and commercial establishments were destroyed. Most of Gaza’s 2.3 million people have been displaced from their homes. Many do not know what they will find when they return.
Trump will focus on pushing Saudi Arabia toward a grand deal that would lead to normalization of relations with Israel. But Riyadh insists that this can only happen if Israel takes decisive steps towards a Palestinian state.
With Netanyahu and his far-right allies in power, Israel wants to annex the West Bank or escalate its hostility with Iran rather than make concessions to the Palestinians.
It took nearly a year of negotiations to end the war. But compared to the Herculean task of rebuilding Gaza, not to mention the elusive goal of bringing lasting peace to the region, it may be the easy part.
