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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
Will American Democracy Survive Donald Trump’s Second Presidency? This is not a theoretical question. It is clear that Trump is following a familiar playbook of turning liberal democracy into illiberalism. The latter is the hallmark of an authoritarian system – a regime where decisions are based on the interests of one person and are not questioned by anyone else.
in The spirit of democracyyLarry Diamond of Stanford argued that liberal democracy consists of free and fair elections, equal protection of citizens’ civil and human rights, and the rule of law that binds all citizens equally. These, then, are the “rules of the game.” But the effectiveness of these rules depends on the restrictions on those who temporarily control the state. The most important such constraints are the judiciary, political parties, bureaucracy and the media. The question is whether these will last long after Trump becomes president.
In a recent discussion new republic, Harvard’s Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, the How democracy diesThe conventional process of “collective resignation” or “institutional suicide” in the face of authoritarian rule has gone too far. Trump has taken over the Republican Party. His control over the electoral base made him support the “big lie”. He won the 2020 election. The Supreme Court has ruled that presidents are immune from criminal prosecution for “acting in their official capacity”, according to British legal counsel Mr. Jonathan Sumption It insists that it places the president above the law, and therefore as a king rather than a citizen. At least, we see them as powerful individuals. Mark ZuckerbergKneeling before their new ruler.
What are they afraid of? As the President arms the state machinery against them. That’s what he and the people around him set out to do. His appointments are strongly recommended. Likewise, the plan to replace bureaucrats with people loyal to Trump is listed in the Heritage Foundation “Project 2025”.. Such loyalty becomes a powerful tool for self-governance. It makes the bureaucracy more obedient to the president than the laws he is supposed to enforce.
Yale’s Timothy Snyder, an expert on 20th-century European dictatorships, describes the appointments to lead the Departments of Health, Justice and Defense, as well as the Intelligence Service. Like “decapitation”.. This is because their incompetence and immorality cause serious damage to the functioning of the government. The threat of politicizing the federal government, including the law “The Enemy From Within.” It will cause serious damage to democracy.
All of these, including Levitsky and Ziblatt, are classic characteristics of potential autocrats. They are under the broad headings of “holding the umpires” and “abandoning the players”. Among the former will be further changes in the judiciary at all levels. Among the latter are various attacks on independent media organizations, journalists, academic institutions and publishers.
In addition to all this, remember the central project of removing undocumented immigrants. This seems to bring together many elements of the new approach. Deporting millions requires massive military action, extensive intervention in state and local governments, the creation of massive prison camps, suppression of protests, and at least finding countries to dump displaced citizens.
Can all this really happen? in case. But the combination of such disruption and potential economic turmoil could turn public opinion strongly against Trump. Sound margin Only 1.5 percentage points And it has never been so popular. While it has its supporters, it also has ardent detractors. Moreover, if the constitution holds, he has only this term of office. In general, his position in public opinion and his party is bound to weaken. Trump’s skills as a populist demagogue are unique: perhaps the party’s 2010 By 2028, he will face the impossibility of finding a sufficiently charismatic replacement. His coalition is also showing signs of disintegration: Christian nationalists and nativists. They are not natural bed partners “Tech plutocrats” like Elon Musk
Any selfish push by Trump, then, could overreach and provoke a violent reaction, even among ordinary people. After all, the latter have not yet been touched. It takes courage to wake people up. But we must hope that the American people will not simply abandon their nation’s liberal and intellectual culture before the attacks of today’s authoritarian and crony opposition. Yet it is now a deeply divided country, in which polls show many Americans have lost faith in their democracy. If that cannot be fixed, democracy itself may fail. (See charts.)
The crucial question now is how long will the institutions of liberal democracy, especially the bodies that conduct elections, survive. Many of Trump’s henchmen, as well as Trump himself, face punishment for the “retaliation” they seek to exact. This gives a huge incentive to cheat the rules of the game with the help of the judiciary.
If they succeed in overturning US national elections, it may be “game over”. The global consequences of that are dire. Without the active participation of a democratic US, the health of liberal democracies around the world is at great risk.
Benjamin Franklin famous The United States “has a republic,” he said. We may soon find out if it is possible.
