Why Trump made a breakthrough in Gaza, but he can’t with Putin on Ukraine

Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit appear to be greatly exaggerated.

Just days after US President Donald Trump said he planned to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest – “within about two weeks” – the summit was suspended indefinitely.

The preliminary meeting of the first diplomats of the two countries was also cancelled.

“I don’t want to have a wasted meeting,” President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. “I don’t want to waste my time, so I’ll see what happens.”

The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest twist in Trump’s efforts to broker an end to the war in Ukraine, a topic of renewed focus for the U.S. president after he brokered a cease-fire and hostage-free deal in Gaza.

While making remarks in Egypt last week to celebrate the ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, his top diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

“We have to finish Russia,” he said.

However, the circumstances that made the Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may prove difficult to replicate in Ukraine’s war, which has raged for nearly four years.

According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal is Israel’s decision to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that angered America’s Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into a deal.

Trump has benefited from a long history of siding with Israel dating back to his first term in office, including his decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, changing America’s position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israel’s military campaign against Iran.

The US president is actually more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu, a position that gives him unique leverage over the Israeli leader.

Add in Trump’s political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had ample diplomatic muscle to push through a deal.

In contrast, in the war in Ukraine, Trump has much less influence. For the past nine months, he has oscillated between trying to arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with little apparent effect.

Trump has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he also acknowledged that it could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the war.

Meanwhile, the president has publicly rebuked Zelensky, temporarily suspending intelligence exchanges with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country — only to back down in the face of concerned European allies who warn that Ukraine’s collapse could destabilize the entire region.

Trump likes to tout his ability to sit down and make deals, but his face-to-face meetings with Putin and Zelensky appear to have brought the war no closer to resolution.

Putin can actually use Trump’s desire for a deal — and belief in making deals in person — as a means of influencing him.

In July, Putin agreed to a summit in Alaska just as Trump appeared likely to sign the congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. This legislation was subsequently shelved.

Last week, when reports surfaced that the White House was seriously considering sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-aircraft batteries to Kiev, the Russian leader called Trump, who then touted a possible summit in Budapest.

The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but was left empty-handed after a reportedly tense encounter.

Trump insisted that Putin was not playing him.

“You know, I’ve played the best of them all my life and I’ve come out really well,” he said.

But the Ukrainian leader later noted the sequence of events.

“As soon as the issue of long-distance mobility became a little bit further for us – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy,” he said.

And so, in a matter of days, Trump went from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles into Ukraine to planning a summit with Putin in Budapest and privately pressuring Zelensky to cede all of Donbas — including territory that Russia failed to capture.

He finally settled on calling for a ceasefire along the current battle lines – something Russia refused to accept.

During his election campaign last year, Trump promised that he could end the war in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that promise, saying that ending the war is proving more difficult than he expected.

It was a rare recognition of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants or can afford to give up the fight.