Asia is trying, but does anyone win anyone?

The “deeply regrets” is how Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba described the most raised threat of US President Donald Trump – a 25% tax on Japanese goods.

Tokyo, a longtime ally for us, is trying to avoid this exactly. He is looking for discounts because of his car manufacturers, while resisting the pressure to open his markets to American rice.

There were many circles of conversations. Japan’s tariff negotiator has visited Washington at least seven times since April, when Trump announced extensive rates against friends and enemies.

Still, these trips seemed to have been given a little fruit. Trump’s Tokyo’s Tokyo label went from “difficult” to “broken” when the conversations drag.

And then this week Japan joined a list of 23 countries that were sent tariff letters – 14 of them are in Asia. From South Korea to Sri Lanka, many of them are manufacturing centers, operated by export.

Friday Trump announced a 35% Tariff for goods imported from Canada.

The president also said he plans to collect a 10% to 20% blanket tariffs for most trading partners, rejecting fears that additional impositions could increase inflation.

“We’ll just say that all other countries will pay, whether it’s 20% or 15%. We’ll work now,” he told NBC News.

Countries around the world have to make a deal with the United States by August 1. But they are probably wondering their chances, given that Japan, an unwavering ally who openly pursues a deal, is still facing a steep tax.

Trump has reset the clock at the tariffs – againS So who wins and who loses?

In one sense, almost all countries aimed at Trump earlier this year take advantage of the extension of the deadline – now they have three more weeks to make deals.

“The optimistic case is that now there is a pressure to negotiate more negotiations before the deadline on August 1,” said Swan Techno Kin, a head of research at the United Bank.

Growing economies such as Thailand and Malaysia, who have received tariff letters this week, will be particularly eager to look for a solution. They are also caught in the middle of tensions in the United States and China, as Washington is directed to Chinese exports, diverted through third countries, known as transchified goods.

Economists have told the BBC that additional extensions are likely, given the complexity of trade agreements.

The parties will need time to apply Trump’s requests, which, by passing the letters, are not completely clear, said the business lecturer Alex Capri of the National University of Singapore.

For example, transchified goods are specifically imposed as part of Vietnam’s trade transaction with the United States. But it is unclear whether this applies to the finished goods or all the components imported.

Either way, it will include a far more complex technology to keep track of the supply chains, said G -N -Capri.

“This will be a slow, long -term and developing process involving many third countries, technology companies and logistics partners.”

It seems clear that tariffs are here to stay, which makes global trading loser.

Companies from the US, Europe and China with a global business remain at risk, said G -N -Capri. It hurts not only the exporters, But also we importers and usersS

And this is a blow to the economic ambitions of large parts of Asia, whose rise is fueled by production, from electronics to textiles.

It is unreasonable to make observations with a zero amount that the countries win and lose, added Mr. Capri, because international trade, especially between the US and China, is so deeply connected.

However, some countries may lose more than others.

Vietnam was the first in Asia to make a deal, but it has a little leverage against Washington and is now facing taxes up to 40%. The same applies to Cambodia. The poor country that is strongly relying on exports, it negotiates with an agreement as Trump threatens 35% tariffs.

South Korea and Japan, on the other hand, can be able to last longer because they are richer and have stronger geopolitical levers.

India, which also has its own impact, has not yet been issued a letter. The deal seemed inevitable, but seems to be delayed by key stick pointsIncluding access to the Indian agricultural market and the country import rules.

“Despite its loved ones economic and military relations with the US, Japan is treated the same as other Asian trading partners,” said economist Jesper Col.

And this can transform the relationship, especially since Tokyo, with his large financial reserves, seems to be ready for a long game.

“Japan turned out to be a difficult negotiator and I think it annoys Trump,” said G -N Cohl.

Despite the shortage of rice that sent prices, Prime Minister Ishiba refused to buy us rice, and instead chooses to protect local farmers. His government also refused to give in to the US’s demands to increase its military spending.

“They are well prepared,” argued G -n. He said on the day after Trump announced the tariffs in April, Tokyo announced an economic emergency situation and set up hundreds of advisory centers to assist the affected companies.

“Japan will look for a deal that is reliable,” he said, because what is the guarantee that Trump will not change his mind again?

With the election at the upper house in Japan, which should be surprising if a deal is agreed by August, said Mr. Kohl.

“No one is happy. But is this something that will force a recession in Japan? No.”

Asia has long been seen as a key field for battle between Washington and Beijing, and analysts say that due to tariffs, Trump can transgress.

On the one hand, considering how complex these transactions can be, Trump can replay his hand by extending the deadline again, according to some observers.

“The US negotiation position is actually reduced as they have revealed that their hand is not really as strong as they would like,” said Nus Economics Professor David Jax.

And the transactions that are being made can come with the cost of transforming trade and connections built over decades.

The choice of Trump to publish letters online, not through traditional diplomatic channels, can cause a reaction, said G -N -Capri, who described it as a “political theater”.

Causes the confusion is a “great gift” of China, which is trying to present itself as a stable alternative to Trump’s unpredictability, he added.

But the US market is not easy to replace – and Beijing has its fair share of tensions with countries in this part of the world, from Vietnam to Japan.

China is in the middle of its own trade negotiations with the United States, although it has a long time to reach a full agreement – until August 13.

So who will win more friends in this trade war is hard to say, but the competition is still ongoing.

“Both sides see the need for divorce,” said Prof. Jax, “But getting there will be difficult and will include procedures that will last for years, if not decades.”