Can Trump’s expensive missile defense system be carried out?

Fighting heads is raining beyond the earth’s atmosphere. Cruise rockets faster than the sound that strikes American infrastructure. Heavenly nuclear explosions.

These are just some of the nightmare scenarios that experts warn can come true if the US defense systems and limited defense were buried in a future high -tech attack.

Even a relatively small nuclear detonation of hundreds of miles above the heads of Americans would create an electromagnetic impulse – or EMP – this would have apocalyptic results. The planes would fall from the sky all over the country. Everything from manual electronics and medical devices to water systems will be made completely useless.

“We will not return to 100 years,” said William Forten, author and weapons researcher at Montreat College in North Carolina. “We would lose everything and do not know how to restore it. This would be the equivalent of returning 1000 years and we should start from scratch.”

In response to these hypothetical ones – but experts say it is quite possible – threats, US President Donald Trump turned his eyes to the next generation rocket shield: the golden dome.

But while many experts agree that building such a system is necessary, its high cost and logistical complexity will make Trump’s mission to strengthen America’s missile defense extremely challenging.

An executive order calling for the creation of what was originally called the “Iron Dome for America” ​​noted that the threat of weapons of the next generation “became more intense and complex” over time, a potentially “catastrophic” scenario for the United States.

Patrycja Bazylczyk, an expert in missile defense at the Washington Strategic and International Studies Center, told the BBC that existing systems are aimed at intercontinental ballistic missiles or those used by North Korea. But powerful nations like Russia and China are also investing in more technologies that could strike not only neighbors but also opponents of the ocean.

Among the threats publicly identified by US Defense employees are hypersonic weapons capable of moving faster than speed of sound And fractional orbital bombings – also called Fobs – that can supply warheads from space.

Everyone – even in limited numbers – is deadly.

“The golden dome type reorienting our missile defense policy to our great competitors of power,” said Mrs. Bazylczyk. “Our opponents invest in long -distance strike opportunities, including things that are not your typical missiles we’ve been dealing with for years.”

White House and Defense staff have so far provided some specific details about what the gold dome will actually look like – which is still in its conceptual stages.

Spotting himself with Trump in the Oval Cabinet on May 20, Defense Minister Pete Heges said only that the system would have multiple layers “throughout the Earth, Sea and Space, including space sensors and interceptors.”

Trump added that the system would be able to interfere with rockets “even if it is launched from other countries of the world and even if they are put into space”, with different aspects of the program based on Florida, Indiana and Alaska.

In previous congress testimony, the newly known Space Force General Michael Guetlein’s supervisor said the gold dome will be based on existing systems that are largely aimed at traditional ICBM. A new system would add numerous layers that could also detect and protect against cruise missiles and other threats, including by offsetting, before firing or at the different stages of their flight.

Currently, the US Missile Defense Agency largely relies on 44 ground interceptors based in Alaska and California, designed to fight a limited missile attack.

Experts have warned that the existing system is terribly inadequate if the American homeland is to be attacked by Russia and China, each with an extended arsenal of hundreds of ICBM and thousands of cruise missiles.

“(Current systems) are created for North Korea,” says Dr. Stacy Petichon, a defense expert at the Center for New American Security. “He could never cross a large arsenal like Russia, or even much smaller than China.”

The Congress Research Service or CBO has said that “hundreds or thousands of” space platforms will be needed to “provide even minimal protection” against incoming rockets – a potentially extremely expensive proposal.

Trump first revealed his concept of the gold dome during a joint address to Congress in March when he said “Israel has it, other places have it, and the United States must also have it.”

The President refers to Israel’s Iron Dome systemwhich the country has used to capture rockets and missiles since 2011

However, Israel’s iron dome is designed to interfere with shorter distances, while two other systems – known as David and the arrow – are struggling with larger ballistic missiles like those who were fired from Iran and Hutiis in Yemen.

D -Ja Bazylczyk described an iron dome as aimed at threats from a “lower level”, such as rockets fired from gas or southern Lebanon.

The gold dome will go beyond this to find a longer range, she said.

To achieve this, she said she would have to combine different opportunities.

“And I will look at the command and control system that can knit all this together,” she said, noting that such a thing does not exist at the moment.

Creating this system will be incredibly complicated – and expensive – a proposal.

In the oval cabinet, Trump suggested that the gold dome could be completed by the end of its term, with a total price of $ 175 billion over time, including an initial investment of $ 25 billion already intended for it.

His estimate is far from synchronized with CBO’s, which has set a potential price of $ 542 billion in 20 years only on space systems. Experts said the total costs could ultimately soak much of the massive US defense budget.

“I think it’s unrealistic,” said Dr. Petichon. “This is complicated with many systems that need to be integrated together. Each of these steps has its own risks, costs and schedules.”

“And progress will add more costs and risk,” she added. “You are likely to create something that will not be so well appreciated … There will be failures on the way and what you produce may need major repairs.”

Creating the gold dome also raised fears that this could lead to a new “arms race”, with us enemies preparing our own efforts to find ways to flood or circumvent their defense powers.

For example, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Mao Ning, told reporters that the plan “increases the risk of space to become a battlefield”.

Those involved in the study of the worst scripts and US defense policy are reducing these problems. The potential enemies, they claim, already invest a lot in offensive opportunities.

“The gold dome aims to change the strategic calculus of our opponents,” said Gia Basilchik. “Improvement of air and missile defenses of the homeland reduces the trust of a potential striker in achieving any goals they are looking for.”

“He raises the threshold for them to get involved in this attack,” she added. “And this contributes to overall deterrence.”

Even a partially finished gold dome, said G -n Fortschen, can prevent a nightmare scenario.

“I will breathe much easier,” he said. “We need this type of system. The gold dome is the answer.”