Car tariffs are expected to reduce sales by millions, cost $ 100 billion

Detroit – as a president Donald Trumps 25% Tariffs for imported vehicles Stay in spite of retreating this week on other country -based levies, analysts expect huge global consequences for the automotive industry due to policies.

They expect to see a decline in vehicle sales in millions, Higher new and used prices for vehiclesAnd they have increased the cost of over $ 100 billion to the industry, according to Wall Street research reports and Automotive Analysts.

“What we see now is a structural change, led by a policy that is likely to be long -lasting,” Felix Steelmashek, the global leading role of Boston Consulting Group, told CNBC. “This may be the most next year for the automotive industry in history – not only because of the immediate pressure of costs, but also because it necessitates a fundamental change in how and where the industry is built.”

BCG expects tariffs to add $ 110 billion to $ 160 billion on an annual basis for the cost of industry, which can affect 20% of US market revenue from new vehicles, increasing production costs for both US and US manufacturers.

The Michigan non -profit -based car research center believes that costs only for automakers in the United States will increase by $ 107.7 billion. This includes $ 41.9 billion for Detroit car manufacturers General Motors., Ford Motor and a parent of Chrysler StellantisS

Both analyzes take into account 25% of imported vehicle rates applied by Trump on April 3, as well as upcoming taxes on The same amount of car parts which should start by May 3.

Automobile manufacturers and suppliers may be able to bear some of the cost increases, but are also expected to hand them over to US users, which in turn may more sales, according to analysts.

“We believe that the tariffs offered will increase costs for both imported and production vehicles in the US, at least low -level thousands of dollars, and we believe it will be difficult for the automotive industry to go completely, especially with the softening of the consumer demand,” the GOLD analyzer said in general.

Goldman Sachs accepts that the prices of new vehicles in the US will rise by approximately $ 2,000 to $ 4,000 in the next six to 12-month period of time to better reflect tariff costs.

Automobile manufacturers have responded to the tariffs in different ways. Manufacturers, which are mainly internal, such as Ford and Stellantis, have announced temporary deals for pricing employees, while others, such as the British car manufacturer Jaguar Land Rover, have stopped supplies to the United States. Hyundai motor He also said he would not raise prices for at least two months to ease the problems of consumers.

Consumer sentiment became even worse than expected in April, as the expected level of inflation reached its highest since 1981, a carefully observed university in Michigan The study showed Friday.

Sam Abelsmid, vice president of the insights of Telemetry of the car consulting firmMany car manufacturers expected to have at least approximately two -month supply of non -tariffs that will be able to sell before they need to increase prices due to tariffs.

Telemetry expects higher production costs, parts and other factors to lead to over 2 million smaller vehicles sold annually in the US and Canada, which will have pulsating effects on the wider economy.

“Reducing sales to several million units will have a widespread impact economically,” Abelsmid said. “This is guided by higher prices, not only for vehicles, but for the whole board … which will limit the cost of people.”

The accessibility of new and used vehicles has been a problem for several years. Average, Cox Automotive reports new vehicles It costs nearly $ 50,000. This figure does not include the cost of financing such a vehicle, which has increased significantly in an attempt to combat inflation in recent years.

A car loan prices remain nearly a decades of more than 9.64% for a new vehicle and nearly 15% for a used car or truck, according to COX.

“We expect to see a reduction in discounts and then an accelerated price increase, as the tariffs are transferred and the delivery is tightened, which leads to an increase in prices of all types of the latest vehicles,” said COX Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan during a A virtual event on Monday. “In the long run, we expect production and sales to be increased, new used prices and some models will be removed.”

The expected price increase varies depending on the vehicle, but Cox calculates an increase of $ 6,000 to the price of imported vehicles due to 25% tariff for assembled vehicles not collected, as well as an increase of $ 3,600 for vehicles raised in the United States due to the upcoming 25% tariffs of automotive parts. They are in addition to the increase of $ 300 to $ 500 as a result of previously announced rates for steel and aluminum.