China is not inferior to Trump’s Tariff War. What is next?

The trade war between the two largest economies in the world shows no signs of delay – Beijing swore to “fight until the end” after US President Donald Trump threatened to double the rates for China.

This can leave Most Chinese imports facing the shocking tax of 104% – Cut escalation between the two sides.

Smartphones, computers, lithium-ion batteries, toys and video game consoles make up most of Chinese exports to the United States. But there are so many other things, from screws to boilers.

With the deadline that is outlined in Washington, as Trump threatens to introduce additional tariffs from Wednesday, who will flash first?

“It would be a mistake to think that China would retreat and remove the tariffs unilaterally,” says Alfredo Montufar-Hello, a senior councilor at the Center for China in the Conference Council.

“This would not only make China look weak, but also give a lever to the United States to ask for more. We have now reached a dose of impasse that is likely to lead to long -term economic pain.”

The global markets have descended from last week, when Trump’s tariffs, which are aimed at almost every country, began to take effect. Asian stocks that have seen their greatest decline in decades on Monday After the Trump administration did not break down, it recovered slightly on Tuesday.

In the meantime, China hit back with Tat’s Tales – 34% – and Trump warned that he would avenge an additional 50% tariff if Beijing did not back down.

Uncertainty is high, with more tariffs, ranging to more than 40%, should start on Wednesday. Many would affect Asian economies: the tariffs for China will increase to 54%, and those of Vietnam and Cambodia will rise to 46%and 49%respectively.

Experts are worried about the speed at which this happens, leaving governments, business and investors for little time to adapt or prepare for a remarkably different global economy.

China had Answer the first round of Trump’s tariffs with a taxi daddy With certain US imports, export control over rare metals and antitrust investigation by US companies, including Google.

This time he also announced revenge tariffs, but he also seems to be a supportive pain with more strong measures. He allowed his currency Yuan to weaken, making Chinese export more attractive. And the state -related enterprises buy shares in what seems to be a stabilization move.

The prospect of negotiating between the US and Japan seemed to have accumulated investors who were fighting to return some of the losses in recent days.

But the person between China and the US – the largest exporter in the world and its most important market – remains a major concern.

“What we see is a game of who can bear more pain. We have stopped talking about any sense of profit,” said Mary Lowulver, a US sales expert at the Peterson Institute in Washington, told the BBC Newshour program.

Despite his delaying economyChina can “be very good to withstand the pain to avoid the surrender of what they think is US aggression,” she added.

Shocked by a prolonged crisis in the real estate market and growing unemployment, the Chinese simply do not spend enough. Deputy local authorities are also struggling to increase investment or expand the social security network.

“Tariffs sharpen this problem,” says Andrew Colier, a senior associate at the Center for Business and Government Mosavar-Rahmani at the Harvard Kennedy School.

If China’s exports take a blow, it injures a decisive flow of revenue. Exports have long been a key factor in China’s explosive growth. And they remain a significant engine, although the country is trying to diversify its economy with the production of high-end technology and higher domestic consumption.

It is difficult to say exactly when the rates “will bite, but probably soon,” says G -n Collier, adding that “(President XI) is facing an increasingly difficult choice due to a slow economy and decreasing resources.”

But not only China will feel the impact.

According to US Trade Representatives, US has imported goods of $ 438 billion ($ 342 billion) from China in 2024, with US exports being estimated at $ 143 billion, leaving a $ 295 billion commercial deficit.

And it is unclear how the United States will find an alternative supply for Chinese goods for such a short notice.

Taxes on physical goods aside, both parties are “economically intertwined in many ways – there is a huge amount of investment in both directions, many digital trade and streams of data,” says Deborah Elms, head of commercial policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore.

“You can target so long. But there are other ways that both sides can hit. So you can say that it may not get worse, but there are many ways it can.”

The rest of the world also watches to see where Chinese exports from the US market will come out.

They will find themselves in other markets like those in Southeast Asia, adds G -Elms and “These places (deal) with their own rates and have to think where else can we sell our products?”

“So we are in a completely different universe, the one that is truly cloudy.”

Unlike the trade war with China during the first term of Trump, which was for negotiations with Beijing, it is not clear what these rates are motivating and it is very difficult to predict where things can go from here, “says Roland Raja, a leading economist at the Lowi Institute.

China has a “broad toolkit” for revenge, he adds, such as the depreciation of their currency extra or tightening of US companies.

“I think the question is how restrained they will be?

Some experts believe the US and China can participate in private conversations. Trump is yet to talk to the White House after returning to the White House, although Beijing has repeatedly signaled his desire to speak.

But others are less hope.

“I think the United States is replaying his hand,” says G -Ja Elms. It is skeptical of Trump’s conviction that the US market is so profitable that China or any country will eventually bend.

“How will this do this? Nobody knows,” she says. “I’m really concerned about speed and escalation. The future is much more challenging and the risks are just as high.”