How Canada Mark Carney plans to win Donald Trump

On the last day of Mark Carney from a grueling race, which will be elected prime minister of a huge and rarely populated Canada, I was with him.

It was his last impetus, not only to win, but also to receive the majority he said he should face the chaotic territorial and commercial ambitions of his “neighbor to the south”.

For someone who had to see Carney as a cerebral technocrat, managing crisis-manager of the central bank a decade ago, the transformation into a public speaker was quite something.

I remember endless interviews that were trying to make the governor then say something that was a newcomer, or something that would make a good title.

Although it was a very different Mark Carney, the Crisis Economics pedigree was also part of his sale.

Carney told her audience in Edmonton, Alberta, playing on the Oilers’ local hockey shirt: “President Trump has destroyed the world economy … The US leadership of the world economy is over. This is still in the game, but this is a tragedy and our new reality … in this commercial war.”

His supporters called the “elbows up” and placed them, a reference to the upright and struggled in the sometimes rough game of ice hockey.

“What we see throughout the country is the Canadians who act on behalf of other Canadians, as a stand for each other, buy each other, travel here …”

At the very last stop in the far west, in the isolation of Victoria, Vancouver Island, with only half an hour of campaign, Carney remained “off” among the supporters.

“As the assembled media will tell you, I campaign in prose,” Carney joked. “So I will manage in the economy,” he told the nervous mathematical tension of the economy.

Under normal circumstances, some of these may be interesting in the broader world. In the present circumstances, the origin of his election, his approach to the creation of a policy and the nature of his mandate can be of critical importance.

When I caught up with him for the BBC exclusive interview, just when the polls closed on Monday, he looked confident, but did not take anything for granted.

The central argument of G -n Carney remained consistent. He said he was a leader to take over Donald Trump’s “betrayal” and threats to Canada’s economy and sovereignty.

He was, for example, from his last major rally on the US Canada border, with the ambassador bridge and the silhouette of the iconic Detroit car companies behind him.

This bridge is the main artery of Canadian American trade. Much efforts have come across this background of two-way trade in the most integrated economies in the world, now targets unthinkable levels. Discount a message from the leader of the Liberal Party for a changed continent.

The result of the election was stunning.

Entering 2025, the Liberal Party was only 16%, against 45% for opposition conservatives, in public opinion studies.

Pierre Polyver’s conservatives not only turned to the victory, but also to a total landslide.

But then after the imposition of President Trump’s national security tariffs in Canada, using a pretext of a suspected role in fentanyl traffic, and then his non -diplomatic proposal that Canada should join the United States, the polls were tightening.

Then, after Mark Carney was elected leader of the Liberal, just eight weeks ago, the Liberals reached a constant leading position of the poll they rode to victory last week.

The election has become a presidential -style sentence on who can handle Trump.

Pioevre was fundamentally weakened by previous overtures to the US president and his style of governance.

Carney included the voters on the left, who were scared by a conservative government, hard by Trump.

And it is incredible that in Quebec, the liberals won support from separatists, who were more concerned about the independence of Canada from the United States than their own constitutional status in Canada. There is nothing more subject to a reliable external threat.

Carney gave some clues to her strategy during his interview with me. He talks about the “Win Win” partnership with the US and reminded the president that Canada is the “most large client” of 40 of the 50s in the United States and a key supplier of energy and fertilizers.

He also told me that “can potentially provide them with critical minerals.” This hit me as a tactic for negotiation, very directed at what Trump has fixed in other places.

Canada has enough resources from critical minerals and would be a much more reliable supplier to the West than many other nations. Carney implicitly, however, suggests that his country has a deep strategic election to make here, for example, to develop them with Europe, not with the United States.

In any case, the prime minister will use the impetus of the external threat to try to transform the Canadian economy. Even when providing an interview with BBC News, it was clear that he sees a critical need for diversifying trade and strategic unions. Defense partnerships are already on cards.

He seemed to admit that he was stagnant in Canada and the United Kingdom could be accelerated.

On Friday, he took out the historic message that King Charles would personally open the Canadian parliament at the end of the month. This has not happened since 1977. This is entirely in accordance with the Canada Constitution, but it is also a stunning claim for lasting independence from the White House.

All roads now lead to the G7 summit, organized by Carney in mid -June in Alberta, bringing together the seven largest economies in the world that dominate world trade and the international financial system.

Assuming Trump is coming, this will happen within days of the break in the massive so -called “reciprocal tariffs” in most of the world.

It is often remembered that if Canada and Mexico are released from fentanyl rates, they will turn out to be the subject of this system, with a minimum of 10% tariffs.

All this happens within days of increasing dissatisfaction with the traditional allies of America with the whole process of a “commercial transaction”.

Japan is increasingly striped, with its finance minister now openly pointing to the invincible holding of Japanese government debt as a “map” in negotiations.

The EU didn’t go very far. Even the United Kingdom hinted that the deal with Europe could be a more effective way to strengthen the economy.

It comes as tariffs begin to have a visible and tangible negative impact on US enterprises and consumers.

There is no much incentive to offer much, while the US themselves begin to feel the inevitable inflation effects of its actions.

The flotilla of empty Chinese cargo ships and empty docks on the west coast of the United States will soon be seen in the economic data of the already shrinking American economy.

As a veteran of economic crises arising from uncertain governments experiments, Carney can be placed in a unique way how these situations diverge. Many in the markets have been completely impressed by the White House advisers sent to calm investors in recent weeks.

But Carney also has its own challenges. He just missed a majority in parliament, but chose to try to design this as a virtue.

It will reach the Canada team to talk with the United States.

The Prime Minister of Petrol Rich Province Alberta, who is a regular visitor to Mar-A-Lago, immediately announced the moves to facilitate the referendums of separation.

It is a very complex, internal, continental and global environment economically and politically. Few would predict exactly where it was going. Carney can have a lot of it, not just for your own country.