How will the EU react to Donald Trump’s tariffs?

In principle, it was the wrong thing that the German -leaving Chancellor Olaf Scholz described the new Trump tariffs.

One -sided attack – it was the view of Spain’s premiere Pedro Sanchez.

French President Emmanuel Macron called them brutal, unfounded and sure that they have a “mass impact” on the European economy.

He convened an emergency meeting with representatives of French companies, most affected by the newly announced 20% rates for goods in the EU, sold to the United States and calls for weapons for European business, “not invest in America for some time until we clarify things.”

“What message would we send by having big European players investing billions of euros in the US economy at a time when (US) hits us?” he said.

For France, it is wine, champagne and aviation industry, for Germany it is cars, and for Italy it is luxury goods. It is well known that these sectors are sold well abroad and are now risking being closed by US taxes.

Overall, the EU chemical, machines and equipment industry is seen as the most vulnerable of tariffs.

But dig a little deeper and there are other EU sectors relying on the US market that could come as a little surprise.

The French cognac, which is usually rejected as a tip to an old face in Europe, is a choice for many American rappers, playing a prominent role in the music and lifestyle of stars like Jay-Z, 50 Cent and Snoop Dogg. More than 40% of French brandy is exported to the United States.

Spain exports many gas turbines to the United States, along with tons of olive oil.

When we look at which EU countries are most exposed to the United States in terms of GDP, the picture is also not exactly what you can imagine.

Ireland is highly dependent on the United States in terms of goods and services. These exports – very related to the pharmaceutical industry (which is currently released from 20% tariffs until the United States raises its own production) and also technology – make up one fifth of GDP in Ireland.

Cyprus, Luxembourg and Malta are more exposed than the EU average in terms of service exports.

Belgium, the Netherlands and Slovakia are in a similar situation when it comes to goods.

Germany has a larger US exposure than other major EU economies, with over 5%of GDP, followed by Italy (about 4%), France (3%) and Spain (just over 2%). These figures were collected in 2024. by Caixabank Research based on Eurostat data for the previous year.

The response to the new US tariffs is coordinated at the EU headquarters in Brussels. The European Commission is involved in comprehensive commercial issues for the members of the block.

Commission chairman Ursula von der Leyen claims to have “many cards”, including the power of negotiations and the power to pull back.

The American economy is powerful. It represents 25% of global GDP.

But the only EU market of 450 million people (the largest single market in the world) is very close to 22% of global GDP.

So, yes, the EU can bite – as well as barking when it comes to revenge on Donald Trump’s tariffs. Especially if, as EU figures suggest, Bloc heads to US services like Big Tech, probably including Apple, Meta, Amazon and even the Elon Musk X platform.

But this risks a new reaction from the Trump administration. And the EU wants to avoid raising Ante.

If you consider policy, not just the economy, the EU has less space to maneuver than you can think.

Take energy supplies, the EU buys American liquefied natural gas (VPG) after wearing the Russian gas after the full -scale invasion of Ukraine.

Difficult to reduce or high taxation of these imports. This would badly affect the EU users, not just in the US industry, and the already grim relations with the United States will be impaired.

Consider all recent lines of defense and Ukraine costs. In addition to the economic hell that the EU sees and hopes to avoid in the new Trump tariffs, the block also really wants to bypass a trade war with the country that was previously the best friend in Europe.

So, Brussels’s plan is: a threat of heavy revenge, Nadezhda Donald Trump be convinced to negotiate, and then praying to put under the tariffs.

EU Commerce Commissioner Maros Sefovic says he talks to his colleagues in the United States on Friday. This is an opening gambit. The EU is in no hurry to avenge.

The Trump administration has excluded any country that negotiates a way out of the new tariffs before they are live this weekend. But then what could the EU offer the US president to persuade him to retreat?

Trump is incandescent for the large -scale trade surplus of the EU. He sells many more goods than he buys from the United States. The surplus for 2024 is about $ 200 billion ($ 180 billion; $ 153 billion).

This is the opposite when it comes to services – the US sells much more to the EU than the other way around. That is why the EU believes its main avenged leverage against the United States will lie in services such as banks and major technologies.

In order to eliminate the imbalance of goods, the EU may offer to buy more VPG from the US or more military equipment, following its promise in Washington to make more for its own security.

But this would violate a different promise from the EU – to strengthen the drying of European weapons by trying to buy the EU in re -arming the EU countries. This is something that the US has already objected to, so it’s complicated.

Brussels can also shorten direct and indirect rates for goods in the United States. May lose quotas for US agricultural production.

It would be extremely reluctant to comply with another United States who asks: To conquer its very tubular digital provisions aimed at limiting monopolies and putting restrictions on speech and content in the EU.

How prices in a possible collapse of the international trading system, EU officials ask.

European companies are worried that their markets are flooded by cheap goods from non -EU countries, which are also affected by Trump’s rates and seek to sell elsewhere.

The risk is very real when it comes to China. Trump slaps more than 50% of Beijing rates when you add everything.

Will the EU have to strengthen its duties to import Chinese goods to protect itself and can this lead to an unwanted trade war with China?

These are anxious and extremely uncertain economic times.

Therefore, the European Commission says it also wants to focus on the issues it can control – if the EU capitals agree – and this reduces internal barriers within the EU single market.

These barriers, such as tax regimes, vary in different countries and influence the overall economic growth and competitiveness of the EU.

IMF estimates that they are equivalent to 45% tariff for EU production; 110%when it comes to services.

This is much higher than the tariffs now imposed on the EU by Donald Trump.

EU countries say they are united in the fight against them. So far, they have been separated to complete their own domestic market.