India seems nervous while Trump rushes the tariff threat

Last week, India further reduced the duties on motorcycle imports by reducing motorcycles rates with motorcycles with engines over 1600 cubes from 50% to 30% and less than 50% to 40%.

A preliminary move designed to smooth Harley Davidson’s further entry into India-i, hopes for Delhi, protects any threat from tariffs. The export of motorcycles to the United States in India was worth $ 3 million last year.

Donald Trump marked his return to the White House by throwing out trade measures against America’s neighbors and allies, as well as with his great rival China.

India hopes she has ahead of the game – but will his tariff cuts satisfy Trump or are commercial actions still on the table?

“Canada and Mexico are literally two weapons of the United States. If he acted against them, he could easily act against India,” says Ajay Srivawawa, founder of the Delhi -based Global Institute for Brain Trust (GTRI).

In his telephone conversation late last month, US President pressured Prime Minister Narendra Modi to buy more weapons in the United States and to have a more just trade balance, maintaining pressure.

And during his first term, Trump headed for the steep tariffs of India. He repeatedly struck the then 100% Harley obligation as “unacceptable”, making it in a meeting at his Crusade Crusade against what he saw as unfair commercial practices.

In the past, he repeatedly marked India the “Tariff King” and the “Big Bully” of Commercial Relations.

India enjoys a trade surplus with the US, its best trading partner. Bilateral trade went through $ 190 billion ($ 150 billion) in 2023. Exports of goods to us have jumped by 40% to $ 123 billion from 2018, while the service of services has increased by 22% to reach 66 billion dollars. Meanwhile, US exports to India amount to $ 70 billion.

But beyond bicycles, India has imposed taxes on satellite land installations, taking advantage of US exporters who have delivered $ 92 million in 2023.

Synthetic flavoring tariffs dropped from 100% to 20% ($ 21 million in US exports last year), while fish forage fish forage duties fell from 15% to 5% ($ 35 million in US exports in 2024 .). India is also scraping tariffs for selected waste and scrap items, a category in which US exports amounts to $ 2.5 billion last year.

The best US exports to India in 2023 includes raw oil and petroleum products ($ 14 billion), VPG, coal, medical devices, scientific instruments, scrap metal, turbojmets, computers and almonds.

“While Trump criticizes India’s tariff policies, the most reductions signal a change in policy that could improve US exports to different sectors,” says G -N -Srivawa.

“With key reductions in tariffs on technology, cars, imports of industry and waste, India seems to take steps to facilitate trade, even when the world’s commercial environment remains tense.”

In the meantime, India’s exports cover a varied range – from textiles, pharmaceuticals and engineering goods to oil oils, machines and sliced ​​diamonds. It also delivers smartphones, auto parts, shrimp, gold jewelry, shoes and iron and steel, making it a key player in global trade.

“This diverse range of products reflects the wide export base in India and its strong trade relations with the United States,” says Srivastava.

India was once one of the most productive economies in the world. In the 1970s, American political scientist Joseph Griko described him as one of the “most deritative, cumbersome … regimes regulating foreign direct investment”.

This internal -looking approach has led to a steady decline in India’s exports to world trade, from 2.42% in 1948 to only 0.51% to 1991. As Asema Sinha, author of Globalizing India: How Global Rules and Markets Shape India’s rise to power, noticed, this period was marked by “self -governed industrialization, export of pessimism and suspicion of global unions.”

India finally opened in the 90s and 2000s, reducing the average tariffs from 80% in 1990 to 13% in 2008.

But after Modi launched its Make in India policy to increase production in India, tariffs again rose to about 18% – higher than those designated by other Asian countries such as China, South Korea, Indonesia and Thailand.

Commercial expert Biswajit Dhar believes that India is already a major goal under Trump’s First Police Policy, which is seeking reciprocal action against high taxes on imports and reassesses the trade in major deficits in the United States.

Access to the agricultural market remains a sticky moment to the United States, he says.

India has dropped out of ignition tariffs for American almonds, apples, chickpeas, lentils and nuts in 2023, but Trump is likely to ask for more. However, India can hold firm given the internal political sensitivity of agriculture.

“We are going to keep a hard deal here and problems can arise,” warns Dhar.

This said that India’s strategic ties with the US – such as Quad -Member, counteracting China – can help relieve friction. India’s willingness to accept the deportation of undocumented Indian migrants in the United States, without pressing back, also sent a positive signal, notes Dhar.

Experts also point to the warm personal approximation of Modi with Trump as an advantage. There will be some clarity when the Indian prime minister visits the White House – this month, according to some reports – at Trump’s invitation.