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“The Japanese yen will be good – and probably the best candidate to hide from commercial tensions and American recession, through many known reasons,” says Ebrahim Rahbari, head of the strategy strategy in absolute strategy studies.
Zhang Xiaoyu | Xinhua news agency | Ghetto images
Investors flock to the assets of safe asylum after US President Donald Trump announced a number of reciprocal tariffs last week – and some look at Japanese yen, bonds, as well as several other “exotic” assets.
“The Japanese yen will be good – and probably the best candidate to hide from commercial tensions and American recession, through many known reasons,” says Ebrahim Rahbari, head of the strategy strategy in absolute strategy studies.
“It is cheap, the probable drop in interest rates in the US will narrow the differences in the percentage to the yen, and although Japan is a prominent exporter, its overall reading of trade is less, especially since fiscal policy is free,” he told CNBC via email.
The yen has intensified about 3Percentage Against April 2, according to LSEG data. Rahbari added that the Swiss franc is another “obvious candidate” as an investment hedge. Frank also estimated over 3% to 0.8522 against the US dollar. These moves come as other currencies around the world weaken.
Another strategist echoed that both the Yen and the Swiss franc are among the best options for arranging the Trump tariffs.
“Both the Japanese yen and the Swiss francs are good currencies to help mitigate the visceral reaction to the rates market,” says Matt Orton, head of consultative solutions and the Raymond James Investment Management market strategy.
But Orton expects the Swiss Frank to act as a better hedge of the yen, given the uncertainty about the path of raising Bank of Japan’s rates.
The yen usually outperforms a time of global recessions or a crisis, said Jeff NG, head of Asia’s macro strategy at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation. “Even if the world avoids heavy landing, (yen) can also do well, as Boj will eventually take a walk against a wave of a central bank that relieves,” he said.
However, he warned that Japan’s economy was also facing winds from Trump’s rates, especially from car rates and components. And the slow economy would mean that Boj would be more likely to maintain low levels, maintaining the yen weak.
A more interesting question is whether there can be more “exotic” hedges, except for classic safe shelters, said Rahbari, who identified Brazilian Real as an option.
“The idea is that it is cheap, it has a high wearing and that it is relatively less exposed to global trade,” Rahbari said, adding that the real is one of the main excellent files in the currencies this year.
Bonds and gold?
Investors also accumulate in money, as well as with low -risk options with fixed income such as treasures and bonds.
Bond yield also decreases, reflecting the increasing demand for bonds, with the 10-year profitability of US bond bonds fell 6% from April 2 to a level of 3.873% on Monday.
The yields of the 10-year government bond in Japan are immersed at a low level of 1.05% on Monday, 28.52% decrease in the end of April 2 by 1.469%. This is also the lowest yield since 10-year-old JGB has been since December 2024.
Risk positioning is dominant in the markets, as participants sell shares in favor of treasures, gold bars, greenery futures, raw oil barrels, options for payment of instability, index of equity in intensity and forecasts.
Gold prices have increased to a record high in the immediate message of the reciprocal tariff. Although they have fallen a little since then, Safe Haven’s Darling prices remain at elevated levels. Market observers expect that there will be more space to work as global markets remain on the edge.
“The golden remain reinforced by the escalation of trade uncertainties, the increased geopolitical tension, the lighter US dollar, the increase in the purchases of the central bank and the increasing risks of recession,” said BMI analyzers.
The SMBC NG said gold is usually a safe haven during a financial crisis, noting that demand for private households and governments remains sustainable. Nevertheless, he says, “the prices are stretched on top.”
The reasons for the star start of Gold by 2025 are only stronger now that Trump has announced his tariffs, said Adrian Ash, Director of Research at Bullionvault.
“Lighter trade, higher entrance costs and marginal shrinkage badly hurt the stock exchange, while geopolitical distrust deepens. Such a gloomy prospect of economic growth offers the perfect background for greater profits in gold,” he said.
US stocks limit the brutal week for investors last Friday, which is 9.08%, according to FacetSet, as Trump’s movements led to more calls for global economic delay. JpMorgan, for example, increase the chances of the US and the global recession to 60% By the end of the year, compared to 40% before.
“There is no stock offer at the moment,” Orton told Raymond James the investment management.
